Norris to Prove His McLaren Can Do It All in Belgian GP
Last weekend the Oracle Red Bull Racing Formula 1 team landed a record-breaking twelfth consecutive race win. The sequence means Red Bull’s Max Verstappen arrives at Belgium’s Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps as the overwhelming favourite to claim pole position, to win the Sprint Race, and to claim Sunday’s Grand Prix.
Within Formula 1, the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps is an icon. Popular with teams, drivers, historians, and modern-day fans, its long straights and roller-coaster layout make for a thrilling spectacle. ©Dan Mullan/Getty Images
Such is the dominance of Max Verstappen driving his Milton Keynes-constructed Red Bull car the Dutchman is quoted on 2/7 to land his eighth consecutive race. The Belgian Grand Prix will be the twelfth contest of the 2023 season. In a break from tradition, Formula 1 visits the country four weeks earlier than normal and immediately before the sport’s month-long summer shutdown.
Finding the Woods Through the Spa Trees
Spa-Francorchamps, nestled in the Ardennes Forest, is a classic venue. The circuit is the most popular with purists and many drivers. It presents a true challenge for teams and their pilots, especially in the Sprint format that features limited practice time on a long challenging lap.
Fact File: Belgian Grand Prix
- Spa-Francorchamps is the longest circuit visited by Formula 1. It measures 7.004 kilometres.
- Consequently, the Grand Prix has the lowest number of race laps – just 44.
- The long lap distance brings with it a few unique challenges. For example, if a car gets damaged early in the lap, more time is lost getting it back to the pit lane.
- Similarly, the weather is very changeable in the Ardennes Forest. So, conditions can vary massively from corner to corner.
- The distance from pole position to the braking zone at the first turn at La Source is just over 150 metres, so there is limited opportunity to gain positions immediately off the line.
- However, from the exit of La Source to the braking zone for Les Combes, the drivers have their foot firmly on the throttle for over 20 seconds (and 1,875 metres) of track layout.
- Because of this flat-out section, the exit of La Source is incredibly important, as it leads down the long straight to Eau Rouge and Raidillon.
- There is a difference of around 100 metres between the highest point (Les Combes, turn 7) and the lowest point (Stavelot, turn 15) on the track. It is the highest elevation change of the season.
- The first and third sectors at Spa feature long straights and flat-out sections, but the second sector is twisty and slower. It presents teams with the challenge of finding the perfect balance and set-up compromise. Bigger wings will gain time in Spa’s middle sector but leave drivers vulnerable on the straights. Small wings will provide less drag for the flat-out sections but reduce grip in the twisty corners.
Measured from the exit of Raidillon to the entry of Les Combes, the Kemmel Straight is 1.05 kilometres long. It will see cars easily exceed 200 miles per-hour. ©MercedesF1
Form to Find an F1 Winning Bet
Normally, due to the tracks’ similarities, Azerbaijan Grand Prix form can be used to ascertain the likely pecking order in Belgium. However, teams have developed their cars at a remarkable rate this season. The results in Baku three months ago are not a reliable guide to the outcome of Saturday’s Sprint race and, more importantly, Sunday’s Grand Prix.
For example, Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin now looks a shadow of the car that took him to six podium finishes from the season’s first eight races. Lando Norris finished a lowly seventeenth in four of his first seven 2023 Grand Prix. With his car recently transformed, he has taken two silver medals from his last two outings.
The Weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix Schedule
- Free Practice 1 Friday 12.30 pm
- Grand Prix Qualifying Friday 4.00 pm
- Sprint Shootout Saturday 11.00 pm
- Sprint Race Saturday 3.30 pm
- Race Sunday 2.00 pm
What Are the Best Bets for Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix?
It is difficult to see Max Verstappen beaten and foolhardy to oppose him even on value grounds. But, with a car nimble enough to finish second in Hungary and fast enough to claim silver in Silverstone, the motorsport betting sites have surely overestimated Lando Norris’s chances of standing on the Spa podium.
Quoting an unconventional 17/20, Unibet offers the best odds about a Lando Norris top-3 race finish. Interestingly, the same operator quotes the shortest odds on another outcome that interests us: No use of the Safety Car.
Why would we be against the prospect of Safety Car intervention? It has been needed for six of the last seven Belgian Grand Prix after all. But, at 2/7, possibly the betting sites have overreacted to the recent stats that feature an anomaly.
In the bigger picture, over a decade, the Safety Car has been used six times in ten years. Furthermore, as the 2021 race started and finished behind the Safety Car after just three races were completed (due to continuous rain), the stats should be readjusted to five from nine.
The early weather forecast is for fine weather on Sunday. Cars experienced no mechanical issues in Hungary last weekend and, throughout 2023, very few cars have failed to finish due to breakdowns. And so, at the 5/2 offered by BetVictor about the ‘no Safety Car’ scenario, we believe it is the better bet – at the prices!
