Ten Songs to Consider for the 2024 Eurovision Betting Feast
During the past month, Switzerland has been backed into 15/8 from 7/1 to win the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest. Likewise, Norway has halved in price from the 9/1 that was available four weeks ago. Heading in the other direction is Ukraine. The 2022 winners have drifted to 14/1 from 5/1 in the same timeframe.
Cooking up a Eurovision winner? Croatia’s Baby Lasagne performing live at Madrid’s pre-party event. ©GettyImages
With the competition just weeks away, Eurovision betting markets are appearing on a daily basis. Explaining why each offers betting opportunities in the emerging top-three, top-five, and top-ten betting markets, here Eurovision betting veteran Roy Brindley casts his expert eye over ten leading contenders. Furthermore, he suggests Eurovision betting strategies such as in-running ‘back-to-lay’.
Belgium
Artist: Mustii
Song: Before The Party’s Over
Fourth in 2015 and 2017 and seventh last year, Belgium has been knocking on the door in recent years. Another Eurovision victory – 1986 was its last success – cannot be far away. It is doubtful that it will come in 2024, but the country could belie 66/1 odds with this dark pop song, which is commercially and radio-friendly, yet packs a punch.
A slow burner, ‘Before The Party’s Over’ builds and builds before reaching a final crescendo. In our opinion, it will score well with the juries. And a visually imposing performance could see a strong televote – giving Belgium enough points to make the top five. The proposition is generously priced on 5/1 at Star Sports.
Croatia
Artist: Baby Lasagna
Song: Rim Tim Tagi Dim
One of the elements that can lead to Eurovision success is the narrative surrounding an act. It is a strong card for Croatia. From an independent artist not in the original national selection lineup to an international darling, a first-time win for Croatia in 2024 would be the ultimate Eurovision fairytale.
The song is clearly rock but remains accessible to a mainstream audience. The lyrics are fun and relatable without being cheesy and still carry an important message. As with similar recent songs – such as Finland’s second-placed finisher in 2023 and Italy’s 2021 winner – the televote will eat Baby Lasagna up.
The jury’s opinion is difficult to predict, but the song is well-written. If the performance excels (and it did in Dora 2024, Croatia’s selection show), their vote may rank this highly enough for Croatia to walk away with its first Eurovision victory.
France
Artist: Slimane
Song: Mon Amour
Despite being released way back in November, ‘Mon Amour’ is holding up remarkably well – no doubt with the boost of a couple of incredible live performances. The song screams stereotypical French, it is easy to follow, and Slimane is established and a competent performer.
The juries could rate this song highly – as they did with the 2021 French entry of a similar ilk – but the public may need an added ‘je ne sais quoi’ to get on board. From a betting perspective, France is 6/4 to finish in the top five and 16/1 in the win market. With judges’ point scores announced first, I suggest this is a back-to-lay proposition on the betting exchanges.
Greece
Artist: Marina Satti
Song: Zari
There is a lot of hype surrounding the Greek entry, which has been subject to significant support with the UK’s leading bookmakers. Personally, I do not get it. It makes me want to pen a song called ‘Lay All Day’. Playing devil’s advocate, ‘Zari’ is divisive, and that can be a strength, not necessarily a weakness.
The song is very different from anything else in this year’s lineup and screams Greek culture. Ethnic songs can do very well at Eurovision when executed correctly. Both the public voters and juries could lap this up, but it could just as easily bomb. I am leading to the bomb scenario.
Italy
Artist: Angelina Mango
Song: La Noia
Italy generally scores well in both the public and jury votes. And six top-six finishes during the past seven years – with contrasting songs – shows you can always count on Italy for a quality entry and a strong result. 2024 is no exception, but I am a layer at 4/5 odds of ‘La Noia’ reaching the top three.
This year, the country serves up a female Mediterranean bop. Dynamic, ‘La Noia’ takes us in many different and interesting directions. It is not a sing-along song, but the judges will like it as Angelina has a great voice. Once again, with the judges’ point scoring announced first, this is a back-to-lay proposition with a live betting site.
Lithuania
Artist: Silvester Belt
Song: Luktelk
Lithuania regularly finishes around tenth in the Eurovision Song Contest, with a best finishing position of sixth in 2006. ‘Luktelk’ is unlikely to better that result, but this track is contemporary with some oomph – meaning it will sail through the semi-finals.
The choreography and vocals are simple but effective, and the staging works too. Producing an all-round professional package, Lithuania can be rewarded with a top-10 finish. That outcome looks like a good bet at the even-money odds offered by the best Eurovision betting sites.
Netherlands
Artist: Boost Klein
Song: Europapa
The Netherlands promised a viral hit, and that is precisely what they delivered. ‘Europapa’ is streaming well across the continent, and the viewing numbers of its music video are a cut above all other Eurovision entries. The song is fun and catchy but has a sweet backstory.
Spending five weeks at number one in Holland, three weeks on the top spot in Belgium and charting in other countries, it is clear that this song is a contender for the televote win. However, our experts anticipate the juries will dismiss this entry for being too much of a novelty song.
The recommended play here is to back this one in play during the live Eurovision final for a top-three finish. ‘Europapa’ could easily drift out dramatically after the judges’ points have been tallied, but its odds could rally as the public votes are announced.
Norway
Artist: Gåte
Song: Ulveham
Norway is among several nations daring to try something different this year. Fans have waited a long time to hear some Norwegian again at Eurovision. Finally, we have it in a folk-rock song. Not only is the song epic, but the performance is incredible; you cannot take your eyes off the screen for any of its three minutes.
The public could climb on board with the mystical vibes of this entry – which has a Game of Thrones feel about it – and the juries will respect the phenomenal vocals of the lead singer. 9/4 odds on this one making the top 10 could prove the best of all Eurovision bets, and those odds may not last too long.
Switzerland
Artist: Nemo
Song: The Code
Switzerland have gone from being a nobody at Eurovision to a somebody. Many of their recent entries have been exciting and highly competitive. The country finished fourth in 2019 and third in 2021. ‘The Code’ is trading as the 15/8 favourite, suggesting it could go a place or two better in 2024.
A ‘three-in-one body wash song’, the Swiss entry is a bit pop, bit opera, and bit rap. Fans say that despite the mix of genres, this song flows well. So does a white-water rafting course! ‘The Code’ and its performer – the dress-wearing non-binary Nemo – will stick out at the contest and grab some of the public’s attention. However, 15/8 massively overestimates Switzerland’s chances for my two-penneth.
Ukraine
Artist: Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil
Song: Teresa & Maria
Ukraine will do well with the televoters – it always does – and there is a pretty sizable diaspora scattered across Europe now. But will the Juries be on board with the 2024 Ukrainian song? I doubt it, as ‘Teresa & Maria’ is two songs welded together.
Heil has the stage to herself for the first minute, and then Alyona gets her turn (as Heil walks off) with a rap section that is indecipherable to non-Ukrainian speakers. Creativity and ambition never fail to surprise with Ukraine in Eurovision, and the staging is always good. However, stacking up alongside some good opposition, a top-three finish is unlikely this time.
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The Croatian act is enjoying incredible support from his home nation, where a ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim’ dance features in scores of videos that are gaining Europe-wide traction. Baby Lasagna has been on a charm offensive with interviews and performances on mainstream television shows in several countries. The Croat has also been active on the pre-party tour, during which he has been exceptionally well-received.
Some 10/3 is still available about the nation with the best Eurovision Song Contest betting sites, which is a sound offer. The Netherlands is the best of the rest in terms of betting. Priced 11/2 with each-way terms of a quarter of the odds for positions 1-2-3-4, the country appears to be a proverbial ‘bet to nothing’.
Elsewhere, on value grounds, it is Belgium for a top-five at 5/1; a lay of Italy on 4/5 for a top-three finish; and plays on Lithuania (even-money) and Norway (9/4) to reach the top-10.
