Next England Manager Odds: Who will succeed Gareth Southgate?

by , 4 October 2023

The anticipation is building in the football world as speculation about the next England manager intensifies. Southgate’s remarkable journey, from a temporary appointment to leading the Three Lions to the Euro 2020 final, has left a lasting mark. However, anything less than a win at next year’s Euros will likely end Gareth Southgate’s tenure. In this article, Luke Andrews looks at some of the potential candidates to replace him.

Next England Manager Odds

The odds for the next England manager are intriguing as speculation mounts about who will take over the England managerial role after Gareth Southgate’s seven-year run. Southgate’s term has been notably successful. Initially stepping in on a temporary basis after the unexpected exit of Sam Allardyce in 2016, the ex-defender guided the Three Lions to the semi-finals in the 2018 World Cup and then outdid himself at Euro 2020 three years later, reaching the final but losing on penalties to Italy.

Graham Potter to Takeover as England Boss at 7/1
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However, a disappointing Nations League performance in 2022 cast a shadow over his future – and Southgate has remained ambiguous about his plans following a quarter-final loss at the World Cup. While Southgate’s contract extends to 2024, chatter is already intensifying among football betting fans about who might fill his shoes if he leaves.

So, join me as I look at some of the top contenders for the job.

Next England Manager Odds: The Favourites

If England do not win Euro 2024 (they are priced as second favourite at 9/2 with bet365), it seems almost guaranteed that the 53-year-old will walk away from the job he has held since 2016.

Here are the top ten contenders to replace Southgate;

Odds to Become the Next England Manager
Name Odds
Graham Potter 7/1
Lee Carsley 8/1
Eddie Howe 8/1
Sarina Wiegman 10/1
Pep Guardiola 10/1
Steve Cooper 11/1
Steven Gerrard 11/1
Mauricio Pochettino 12/1
Thomas Tuchel 14/1
Brendan Rodgers 16/1

To many, Graham Potter having the lowest next England manager odds won’t come as much of a surprise. England has experimented with foreign managers twice, both ending in failure.

The FA appointed Swedish coach Sven-Göran Eriksson as England’s first non-English manager. England faced early exits despite qualifications for the 2002 World Cup and Euro 2004. Eriksson’s tenure ended in 2006. Steve McClaren’s successor also struggled, leading to his dismissal after failing to qualify for Euro 2008.

Fabio Capello, an Italian, took over and secured World Cup 2010 qualification but faced criticism for poor performance. Capello stayed until 2012, after which the FA debated whether the next manager should be English. In 2012, Capello resigned, and Stuart Pearce served as caretaker.

Next England Manager Odds: Graham Potter 7/1

Potter, being English, would suit the English FA’s philosophy of hiring “a yes man”. He began his managerial career with Östersund in Sweden, achieving success in the UEFA Europa League. He later managed Swansea City and Brighton & Hove Albion before taking charge at Chelsea. Potter is known for his progressive and possession-based coaching style.

Graham Potter took charge of Premier League club Brighton & Hove Albion in May 2019 and worked wonders on a small budget and took the Seagulls to a 9th place finish in the Premier League in his third year. Chelsea, under new management, saw Potter as the ideal man to lead The Blues to glory

On 2 April, after a disappointing 2-0 defeat against Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge, Graham Potter was relieved of his duties as Chelsea’s manager. In his place, Bruno Saltor stepped in as the interim manager. Notably, Potter’s tenure yielded the lowest points-per-game performance among all Chelsea managers.

During his 31-game spell in charge, Chelsea suffered 11 losses and found themselves in the 11th position in the Premier League standings at the time of his departure.

Next England Manager Odds: Lee Carsley 7/1

Lee Carsley is a former professional footballer currently serving as the head coach of England U21.

Over his impressive 17-year playing career, he made his name with standout performances as a midfielder, notably donning the shirts of Everton in the Premier League and Derby County in the Football League. Born in Birmingham, Carsley also wore the green of the Republic of Ireland during his international career.

An expert in youth development, he has held youth coaching roles at several clubs, including Coventry, Brentford, Manchester City, and Birmingham City, where he also stepped up as interim first-team manager.

His impressive coaching journey continued as he was promoted to lead the England U21 team in 2021.

Under his guidance, England U21 achieved a remarkable triumph by clinching the European Championship title in 2023.

“Although appointing Potter might make sense to many, as things stand, my money would be on Lee Carsley. Carsley has proven his credentials by winning the Euro Under-21 Championship with England and would suit the Football Association’s desire for a smooth transition. ” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Carsley is on a one-year rolling contract with England and has expressed a desire to take on a higher-profile appointment. Replacing Southgate would be seen as a natural progression for a manager who has shown he can win a final.

Next England Manager Odds: Eddie Howe 8/1

Many people were surprised when Newcastle United appointed Eddie Howe as manager, especially with the newfound wealth at their disposal at St James Park. Some fans thought it was a rather underwhelming appointment, but he has worked miracles at Newcastle, taking the former relegation favourites to the Champions League after a fourth-placed finish in the Premier League.

Howe made his name at AFC Bournemouth, leading them to the Premier League from the fourth tier. He left AFC Bournemouth in August 2020 following relegation, but his return to the Premier League with Newcastle was successful after a 15-month break from the game.

One of the reasons that many England fans would love to see him land the England job is the harmony and team spirit he has brought to Newcastle, and he has been able to get excellent performances from the existing squad rather than being a chequebook manager.

The next England football manager odds are set at 8/1 for Howe, but personally, I doubt it will happen as I believe he has an affinity with Newcastle and wants to win silverware with the Geordie club. He led Newcastle to a Carabao Cup final last season, in which they lost to Manchester United. I feel it is only a matter of time before he does win a trophy with them, cementing a legacy at the club.

Next England Manager Odds: Sarina Wiegman 10/1

Sarina Wiegman is already a successful England manager, leading the women’s team to Euro glory after the Lionesses beat Germany 2-1 at Wembley to claim Euro 2022. She also guided them to the Women’s World Cup final but fell short of victory, losing to Spain 1-0 in the final.

Before she became the Lionesses boss, Wiegman was the head coach of the Dutch national team. And just like with England, she led them to victory at the UEFA Women’s Euro 2017 and two years later, the squad became runners-up of the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup.

Therefore, it is no surprise to see her instilled as the fourth favourite to take over from Gareth Southgate, with her odds on being next England manager set at 10/1. Some of the best odds betting sites even have her priced at 9/1.

During the Euro 22 triumph, she showcased her astute decision-making abilities in crucial moments. Her choice of Leah Williamson as the captain and positioning the Arsenal player in the defence raised some eyebrows. Additionally, her commitment to an unchanged lineup throughout the tournament, despite the emergence of several talented substitutes, was a calculated gamble that ultimately paid off brilliantly. It is this stubborn belief, in the face of opposition, that could make her the ideal candidate for the job.

There is little doubt that the FA would love to be seen as trailblazers by giving Wiegman the job, but I don’t see it happening.

To many, perhaps to Wiegman herself, it may seem disrespectful if it was positioned as a promotion to manage the men’s team. I’d also wonder if it would be an issue with the larger egos within the men’s game.

Another concern would be the cautious approach to making changes, which may alienate some England fans with the talented supporting cast available in the England squad.

It would be a gamble if Wiegman is chosen, I just doubt it is one the Football Association would be willing to make.

Next England Manager Odds: Pep Guardiola 10/1

If you were to ask England fans who the dream appointment would be, I’d wager that Pep Guardiola would top the list. The man has won everything possible.

Pep Guardiola has achieved numerous accolades in his managerial career, including, (take a deep breath….) 2x World’s Best Club Coach (2010, 2008), 2x UEFA Manager of the Year (23/24, 10/11), 3x UEFA Champions League winner (22/23, 10/11, 08/09), 3x FIFA Club World Cup winner (13/14, 11/12, 09/10), 3x German Champion (15/16, 14/15, 13/14), 5x English Champion (22/23, 21/22, 20/21, 18/19, 17/18), 3x Spanish champion (10/11, 09/10, 08/09), 2x German Cup winner (15/16, 13/14), 2x English FA Cup winner (22/23, 18/19), 4x English League Cup winner (20/21, 19/20, 18/19, 17/18), 2x Super Cup winner (19/20, 18/19), 1x Champions League runner-up (20/21), 1x Promotion to 3rd league (07/08), 4x UEFA Super Cup winner (23/24, 13/14, 11/12, 09/10), 3x German Super Cup runner-up (15/16, 14/15, 13/14), 2x Spanish cup winner (11/12, 08/09), and 3x Spanish Super Cup winner (11/12, 10/11, 09/10).

With perhaps the best CV in football, his England next manager odds are 10/1.

If Pep was interested in swapping club football for International football, there is no doubt that the Football Association would love him at the helm. However, a big stumbling block is that the Manchester City manager’s deal with City runs until 2025 — 12 months after Euro 2024, providing an obstacle to the FA. It would mean if Southgate left after Euro 2024, they would need an interim manager for a year before he became free. That seems an unlikely scenario.

I feel if Pep was to become a national team manager, Spain would be a much more likely option.

Next England Manager Odds: The Outsiders

It is probably no surprise that the list of potential replacements is long. Here are some of the other candidates available to back at sports betting sites;

  • Wayne Rooney: 16/1
  • Michael Carrick: 20/1
  • Frank Lampard: 20/1
  • Steve Holland: 22/1
  • Thomas Frank: 25/1
  • Arsene Wenger: 28/1
  • Jose Mourinho: 25/1
  • Will Still: 33/1
  • Rafa Benitez: 33/1
  • Chris Wilder: 33/1
  • Marcelo Bielsa: 33/1
  • Julian Nagelsmann: 33/1
  • Scott Parker: 33/1
  • Roberto Mancini: 33/1
  • Thiago Motto: 33/1
  • Roberto Martinez: 33/1
  • Chris Powell: 33/1
  • Didier Deschamps: 33/1
  • Ruben Amorim: 33/1
  • Ralf Rangnick: 33/1
  • Massimiliano Allegri: 33/1
  • Zinedine Zidane: 40/1
  • Carlo Ancelotti: 40/1
  • Sean Dyche: 40/1
  • Rob Edwards: 40/1
  • John Herdman: 40/1
  • Jurgen Klopp: 40/1
  • Mikel Arteta: 40/1
  • Michael Beale: 40/1
  • David Beckham: 40/1
  • Ryan Mason: 50/1
  • Carlos Corberan: 50/1
  • Chris Hughton: 50/1
  • Gary ONeil: 50/1
  • Julien Lopetegui: 50/1
  • David Moyes: 50/1
  • Alan Pardew: 50/1
  • Roy Hodgson: 50/1

While some fans would love to see Jurgen Klopp or David Beckham taking over the England job, both seem incredibly unlikely.

Many on the list are in the twilight of their careers (Arsene Wenger and Roy Hodgson).

Mikel Arteta would be an interesting appointment, but I can’t see him leaving the Arsenal job to take over the Three Lions.

Gareth Southgate England Career – A Success or Failure?

To the question of how Southgate will be remembered as England’s manager largely depends on the Three Lions’ performance at next year’s Euros in Germany. In this last section, I’ll recap the former England international’s performance at major tournaments.

Southgate took the helm as interim boss of the senior England squad on 27 September 2016, in the wake of Sam Allardyce’s abrupt exit to preserve his unblemished win record as England’s manager. The Three Lions were in the nascent stages of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifiers. After clinching a 2–0 win over Malta in his managerial debut, Southgate’s England squad went on to secure a 0–0 stalemate with Slovenia, trounced Scotland 3–0, and in his final outing as caretaker, settled for a 2–2 deadlock with Spain, despite holding a 2–0 advantage and surrendering goals in the 89th and 96th minutes.

Southgate’s stint as provisional manager concluded on 15 November, with his full-time appointment materialising two weeks later when he inked a four-year deal.

2018 World Cup

The England contingent booked their ticket to the 2018 FIFA World Cup on 5 October 2017, following a 1–0 home triumph against Slovenia.

That December, the Football Association ratified that Southgate would retain his managerial role even if the squad failed to advance beyond the group stage, labelling their aspirations as “grounded” and the competition as “a pivotal developmental juncture.”

After notching victories against Tunisia and Panama, which propelled England to qualify as the second seed behind Belgium in their group, Southgate’s England ousted Colombia 4–3 in a penalty shoot-out in the round of 16 after a 1–1 deadlock on 3 July 2018. This marked England’s inaugural World Cup penalty shoot-out win and secured a spot in the quarter-finals.

England subsequently defeated Sweden 2–0 on 7 July, making Southgate the first England manager to reach a World Cup semi-final since Bobby Robson in 1990.

This feat garnered Southgate considerable admiration from the England faithful.

For the semi-final clash against Croatia, supporters sported waistcoats in homage to Southgate’s signature look; retailer Marks & Spencer reported a 35% uptick in waistcoat sales, and the hashtag ‘WaistcoatWednesday’ trended on Twitter (now known as X).

I must admit that even I was swept up with waistcoat mania and ordered a Gareth Southgate themed Christmas jumper. Sadly, demand was so high, it finally arrived in February, and by next Christmas, the waistcoat was a distant memory.

On 11 July 2018, Southgate’s England brigade suffered a 2–1 extra-time setback against Croatia in the semi-finals. Kieran Trippier ignited the scoring for England with a free-kick, before a netter from Ivan Perišić extended the match into extra time. Mario Mandžukić sealed the win for Croatia in the second half of extra time. With England trailing, the final ten minutes of extra time saw them play with a man down due to a Trippier injury after Southgate had exhausted his substitution options.

Following a 2–0 loss to Belgium in the third-place play-off, England wrapped up the World Cup in fourth position. Harry Kane, the team’s skipper and forward, bagged the Golden Boot as the tournament’s top marksman.

A week post-tournament, Southgate tube station in Enfield, London, temporarily adopted the name “Gareth Southgate” in honour of his accomplishments. Southgate also earned plaudits for his sportsmanship during the World Cup, including consoling Colombia’s Mateus Uribe, whose fluffed penalty facilitated England’s win.

2018–19 UEFA Nations League

In 2019, Southgate steered England to a bronze finish in the inaugural UEFA Nations League. They accomplished this feat after topping a group featuring Spain and Croatia. Their 3–2 away win against the Spaniards marked their first victory on Spanish soil in 31 years. They succumbed 3–1 to the Netherlands in the semi-finals but rebounded to edge Switzerland 6–5 in a penalty shoot-out after a scoreless third-place match. It was England’s first third-place finish in a major international tournament since UEFA Euro 1968.

UEFA Euro 2020

At UEFA Euro 2020, England emerged as Group D leaders, which included Croatia, Scotland, and the Czech Republic.

They kicked off the European Championship with a 1–0 win against Croatia, the first time England had beaten the Croatians, held Scotland to a 0–0 draw, and edged the Czech Republic 1–0, with forward Raheem Sterling netting both goals.

In the round of 16, England dispatched Germany 2–0 at Wembley Stadium with late strikes from Sterling and Kane, marking their first knockout stage win at the European Championships (their sole previous win being a penalty shoot-out victory over Spain in UEFA Euro 1996).

This also marked their first win over Germany in a knockout fixture since the 1966 FIFA World Cup Final.

In the quarter-final duel, Southgate’s England squad routed Ukraine 4–0 at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, advancing to the semi-finals of a major competition for the fifth instance.

In the semi-finals, England edged Denmark 2–1 at Wembley Stadium, reaching the final of the European Championships for the first time. It was only the second time the England’s men team had reached the summit clash of any major tournament.

In the final at Wembley, an early goal from defender Luke Shaw put England ahead 1–0 before Italy’s Leonardo Bonucci levelled the contest in the 67th minute. With the scoreline static after extra time, England ultimately fell 3–2 in the penalty shoot-out.

Despite coming so close to winning the tournament, Southgate wasn’t immune from criticism, as many expressed the opinion that the Three Lions had managed to grab defeat from the jaws of success. Several pundits criticised Southgate for being slow to react to on-field events.

In November 2021, Southgate steered England to World Cup qualification after a 10–0 thrashing of San Marino. He extended his contract a week later, ensuring he would stay as England manager until December 2024.

In June 2022, Southgate led England into the UEFA Nations League, where England drew three matches and lost the remaining three, including a 4–0 drubbing by Hungary on 14 June 2022, marking the nation’s worst home loss since 1928. On 23 September 2022, following a 1–0 setback to Italy, England was demoted to League B.

Despite England’s 2018–19 UEFA Nations League performance being seen as proof of progress, many fans were not too duly concerned about this relegation, with some comparing the Nations League to the Carabao Cup at domestic level.

2022 World Cup

England topped their group at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, registering victories against Iran and Wales and a 0–0 draw against the United States.

In the round of 16, England dispatched Senegal 3–0, progressing to the quarter-finals, where they were ousted 2–1 by France.

In the immediate aftermath of this loss, Southgate voiced uncertainty about his future as England manager. However, on 18 December 2022, the FA confirmed that Southgate would continue in his role until after UEFA Euro 2024.

European Qualifiers Group D Standings
# Team Pl W D L F A GD Pts
1 England 5 4 1 0 16 2 14 13
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 6 4 2 7
3 Ukraine 5 2 1 2 6 7 -1 7
4 North Macedonia 5 2 1 2 7 12 -5 7
5 Malta 5 0 0 5 1 11 -10 0

England are back in action on Tuesday 17 October. They face Italy in a game that could help decide who wins the group. England won the reverse fixture 2-1 in Italy in March.

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