The Azerbaijan Grand Prix Is Brimmed Full of Betting Value
Formula 1 is back. A four-week delay between the Australian Grand Prix and this weekend’s race has served only to whet the appetite for action. And that action comes from one of the most exciting tracks on the calendar, the Baku City Circuit in Azerbaijan.
Long straights, tight corners, unforgiving walls, and a castle for a backdrop, combine to make the Baku Street Circuit a unique venue. ©MercedesF1
So far, the 2023 season has been the Red Bull show. The Milton Keynes-based but Austrian-registered team has won all three races and claimed a pair of 1-2 finishes. With a superior car and a double world champion as its leader, it is unsurprising to see Max Verstappen (4/9) and Sergio Perez (9/2) are overwhelming race favorites on Sunday.
However, this race weekend features a sprint race. It will not be used to formulate the starting grid but it could potentially throw a spanner into the works. Additionally, this circuit has proven itself to be a favorite’s graveyard. In 2021 neither Max Verstappen nor Lewis Hamilton scored points in the contest despite leading at key points of the race.
Safe to Support the F1 Stats
Opposing Verstappen is still difficult. But there are plenty of betting opportunities on the contest. A glance through results from the previous races staged at this circuit demonstrates where the best betting value lay.
| Year | Starters | Finishers | Safety Car | Pole Position | Winner | Started | Margin | Fastest Lap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | 18 | No | Rosberg | Rosberg | 1st | 16.6sec | Rosberg |
| 2017 | 20 | 14 | Yes | Hamilton | Ricciardo | 10th | 3.9sec | Vettel |
| 2018 | 20 | 14 | Yes | Vettel | Hamilton | 2nd | 2.4sec | Bottas |
| 2019 | 20 | 16 | No | Bottas | Bottas | 1st | 1.5sec | Leclerc |
| 2021 | 20 | 18 | Yes | Leclerc | Perez | 7th | 1.3sec | Verstappen |
| 2022 | 20 | 16 | No | Leclerc | Verstappen | 3rd | 20.8sec | Perez |
In 2016, following a chaotic GP2 race – that took place immediately before the Formula 1 showpiece – the odds of a safety car appearance were slashed into 1/9. However, the safety car was not used that year. It also remained parked throughout the 2019 and 2022 Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
The motorsport betting sites have not studied the history books, and they still overestimate the odds of a safety car being deployed this Sunday. They quote its use as a 2/9 proposition, and our recommendation of it not being called into action is 7/2.
Where Will Sunday’s Race Winner Start From?
Another interesting angle is the starting position of the race winner. The statistics suggest the 8/13 odds Formula 1 betting sites offer on the pole-setter going on to win this Sunday’s race is absurdly short. Bet365 has a comprehensive book on the starting position of the race winner. If history were to repeat itself, a big-priced winner is lurking.
A repeat of Ricciardo’s victory from tenth position is amongst a brace of potential starting spots for the race winner – 8th to 13th place – that can be backed at 28/1. In 2021 Sergio Perez prevailed from seventh on the grid. This year, the prospect of the winner starting from that position (or 5th or 6th) can be backed at odds of 7/1.
The 2023 story so far… 📖✨
We return to the track next week!#F1 pic.twitter.com/KvUlESENHF
— Formula 1 (@F1) April 22, 2023
Stroll Has Fine Baku Form
Amongst the more conventional markets, qwe found in our William Hill review they are displaying generosity in quoting Lance Stroll on 8/11 for a top-6 finish. The Canadian has yet to win a Formula 1 race, but his first career podium came at this circuit in 2017 when driving a relatively slow Williams.
Stroll now drives for the Aston Martin team owned by his billionaire father, Lawrence Stroll. In 2023 the team has been exceptional, and its new driver, Fernando Alonso has claimed three podium finishes. Stroll has not had the best of luck to date, but he has finished in the top-6 in two of this season’s three races.
How to Watch the Azerbaijan Grand Prix Live
Sky Sports owns the live and exclusive broadcasting rights to Formula 1 in the UK and Ireland. On Sunday, the build-up to the Azerbaijan Grand Prix will start at 10.30 am on Sky Sports F1 and on Sky Sports Main Event. The channel numbers to look for are Sky 401 and 406 or Virgin Media 501 and 506. The 51-lap Azerbaijan Grand Prix is scheduled to start at midday.
