A Comprehensive Guide to 2024’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket
The first classic race of the 2024 flat season is just a few weeks away. The 2000 Guineas dates back to 1809 and has never strayed from its home course, Newmarket. The first leg of the Triple Crown, the one-mile contest is one of the most sought-after races in the sport of kings.
Aidan O’Brien has trained ten 2000 Guineas winners. His record-breaking run started in 1998 when King Of Kings gave the Irish trainer his first winner. However, O’Brien’s Irish-based Ballydoyle stables has not supplied a 2000 Guineas winner since Magna Grecia scored in 2019. Last year, his Auguste Rodin flopped in the famous horse race as the 13/8 favourite.
Aidan O’Brien has said City Of Troy is the best two-year-old he has trained. But has the American-bred trained on? And will he start 2024 like he finished 2023 – with Group-1 success at Newmarket? ©GettyImages
On Saturday, May 4, City Of Troy will attempt to return O’Brien and owners John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith – better known as the Coolmore Partnership – to the 2000 Guineas winner’s enclosure. The three-year-old son of America’s 2018 Triple Crown winner, Justify, is odds-on to land the contest.
However, winning just twice in the past decade, favourites have a poor winning record in this contest. Here, we will look at City Of Troy’s chances and other contenders situated at the top of bookmakers’ 2000 Guineas betting markets.
Has the 2000 Guineas Winner Been Seen This Season?
Ahead of the 2000 Guineas, there are several recognised trial races. The best-known of these stepping-stone contests are the Craven Stakes at Newmarket and the Greenham Stakes at Newbury. The Craven is scheduled for April 18 this year, and the Greenham will be raced on April 20.
Last year’s 2000 Guineas winner, Chaldean, ran in the Greenham but unseated his rider, Frankie Dettori, at the start of the race. 2022s winner, Coroebus, went straight to the contest without a prior outing. 2020s scorer Kameko was another who was making his seasonal debut.
There have been some sparking performances by three-year-old’s making their seasonal debut who are now headed for the £283,550 race sponsored by Qipco. However, Aidan O’Brien has stated that City Of Troy would not race until the 2000 Guineas and suggested that he would be his only runner in the race.
The 2000 Guineas Contenders in Betting Order
4/6 City Of Troy
Representing the most powerful stable in global horse racing, City Of Troy landed the Group-1 Dewhurst in mid-October. Following the impressive victory, trainer Aidan O’Brien said of his charge: “He is an incredible horse, really. There is no doubt he is the best two-year-old I’ve trained.”
O’Brien has talked of horses in his care in the same way many times before. However, the merit of the winning performance cannot be argued, and City Of Troy is officially Europe’s champion juvenile for 2023 – rated five pounds or more above all rivals.
In the last seven years, three winners (Churchill, Poetic Flare, Chaldean) have claimed the 2000 Guineas having won the previous year’s Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. It means City Of Troy’s credentials are rock solid.
6/1 Rosallion
Three times a winner as a two-year-old, readily winning the Group-1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere in Longchamp on his final start, Rosallion has strong credentials. He is trained by Richard Hannon jnr, who won the race in 2014 with Night Of Thunder.
Like City Of Troy, Rosallion has never raced beyond seven furlongs. Unlike City Of Troy, he is not bred to prosper as he steps up in trip. In fact, by the sire Blue Point, breeding experts argue seven furlongs will be his optimum trip.
Potential soft ground in the weeks ahead means his trainer is considering a racecourse gallop at Kempton Park instead of tackling an established trial race. But, with his form franked by Unquestionable – who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf after finishing second to Rosallion in Longchamp – his supporters will not be too concerned.
12/1 Notable Speech
Three from three in a career that did not start until late January 2024, Notable Speech has emerged as the leading contender from the powerful Godolphin/Charlie Appleby stables that landed the 2000 Guineas in 2022.
All three victories came over a mile on Kempton Park’s all-weather circuit, and his most recent success, off of a modest pace, was particularly eye-catching. His current official rating is way short of the required mark, but he looks a star in the making.
Oh, hello 👀
2,000 Guineas entry Notable Speech shows a sparkling turn of foot to come from last to first under William Buick.
He was 50/1+ for the Guineas before today, he’s not going to be now!@godolphin | @kemptonparkrace pic.twitter.com/5vobUwgrCx
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) April 6, 2024
16/1 Alyanaabi
Beaten four lengths by Rosallion on his second start, Alyanaabi went on to win at Group-3 level and was the runner-up – beaten three-and-a-half lengths – to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst Stakes.
His trainer, Owen Burrows, has confirmed the son of the crack miler, Too Darn Hot, has “physically done well” over the winter and hopes to run Alyanaabi in the Greenham Stakes. If the ground does come up soft, he is another that will have a racecourse gallop and head straight to the 2000 Guineas.
16/1 Ancient Wisdom
Just ahead of Alyanabi when the pair finished behind Rosallion at Ascot, Ancient Wisdom progressed throughout his two-year-old career to win at Group-3 level and then take the Group-1 Futurity Trophy on heavy going at Doncaster.
Another from the Appleby academy, this son of Dubawi, is bred to impress over further distances, and his trainer has indicated that the 2000 Guineas will more so act as a stepping-stone for the Epsom Derby. Nevertheless, many will like his chances if the ground is soft on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course at the start of May.
16/1 Night Raider
Massively impressive on his debut, Night Raider was an authoritative nine-length winner of a December novices race at humble Southwell. In March, he returned to the course and won comfortably ahead of a rival that had been tested in Group-3 level as a juvenile.
🚨 Smart horse alert!
Dark Angel colt Night Raider has cantered all over his rivals on debut and bolts up at @Southwell_Races for Danny Tudhope and @karl_burke… pic.twitter.com/5zT4Y1NLeA
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 12, 2023
Winning trainer Karl Burke said after the race: “The original idea was to go straight to the Guineas with a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting. Another run is probably the right thing to do, Danny [Tudhope, jockey] said he could do with another run, he’s still green in front.”
Clearly, a very talented horse who is yet to race on grass, his profile is very similar to that of Notable Speech. The trainer says he is clutching ante-post betting slips with 40/1 etched on them. That price has gone, but on video evidence alone, Night Raider will still have his supporters at the 16/1 offered by Unibet.
16/1 Task Force
Regally bred by Frankel out of the 1000 Guineas winner Special Duty, Task Force justified hefty support to win at Salisbury on his debut. He stepped up to win at Listed level on his second start at Ripon and finished 2023 with second place in the Group-1 Middle Park Stakes.
Trainer Ralph Beckett says he is sending Task Force directly to the 2000 Guineas, but there are negatives. Vandeek – the comfortable winner of the Middle Park – has been deemed unworthy of a 2000 Guineas entry (he is entered in the Irish version).
Furthermore, five of Special Duty’s previous offspring have failed to win a race. Finally, Task Force has not raced beyond six furlongs, albeit his sire’s progeny typically get further than the 2000 Guineas one-mile trip.
The 2000 Guineas Winner Is …
Favourites have a horrible record in the 2000 Guineas. Nevertheless, it is difficult to get away from City Of Troy. His form is cast iron, and the Dewhurst Stakes is the leading two-year-old prep for the 2000 Guineas.
The Group-1 race Rosallion won in France may have been run at a slow pace, and that compounds reservations about the one-mile Guineas trip. Our experts are keen to lay him on the betting exchanges.
Notable Speech and Night Raider have not done their winning against top-class opposition, but they both have a bright future based on eye-catching victories. With form in the book, Alyanaabi is probably the safest each-way play, and if there is still juice in the ground, he could go off at single-digit odds on race day.
