Premier League Week 7: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews
Another action-packed weekend awaits Premier League fans, as top teams go head-to-head in matches that could define their seasons. Our resident football analyst, Luke Andrews, breaks down the betting predictions for some of the weekend’s most anticipated fixtures, including Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool, Manchester United v Crystal Palace, Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester City, AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal, and Newcastle v Burnley.
Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool are set to clash in a game that could be pivotal in their respective campaigns, both teams being in scintillating form. Manchester United aims to solidify their league standing as they host Crystal Palace, who are not far behind in the table.
Manchester City, the table-toppers, are looking to extend their winning streak against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Arsenal, enjoying a solid start to the season, faces a struggling Bournemouth side desperate for their first win.
Newcastle United and Burnley seek crucial points for different reasons—Newcastle to climb higher and Burnley to escape the relegation zone.
Join me as I perform a deep dive into the statistics that could give you the upper hand in Premier League betting.
Premier League Betting – Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
The biggest game of the weekend is the enticing clash between Spurs and Liverpool. Both teams are unbeaten this season. Both teams are in scintillating form, making this clash a must-watch for football fans. Currently sitting close in the league table—Liverpool in 2nd and Tottenham in 4th—this match could be a pivotal moment in their respective campaigns.
Match Outcome – Draw
Both teams are in strong form and have similar Points Per Game (PPG) averages. Tottenham has a PPG of 3 at home, while Liverpool has a PPG of 2.33 away. A draw seems plausible since both teams are undefeated in their last 6 matches.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Prediction: Yes
Both Tottenham and Liverpool have a 100% scoring rate in their recent matches. Tottenham averages 2 goals per game at home, and Liverpool averages 2 goals per game away. This makes it likely that both teams will score.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Prediction: Over 2.5
Tottenham’s home matches have an average of 2.5 total goals, and Liverpool’s away matches have an average of 3 total goals. Given both teams’ offensive capabilities, the match will likely feature more than 2.5 goals.
First Team to Score – Liverpool
Reasoning: Liverpool has a slightly better overall form and has been on a 5-match winning streak. They also have key players like Mohamed Salah in good form, making them likely candidates to score first.
Corners Over/Under – Over 10.5 total corners
Reasoning: Tottenham averages 10 corners per game at home, and Liverpool averages around 5 corners per game away. Given the attacking nature of both teams, it’s likely that there will be more than 10.5 corners in total.
Player to Score – Heung-min Son (Tottenham) or Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
Son is Tottenham’s top scorer with 5 goals, all scored away. Salah is one of Liverpool’s top scorers with 3 goals, all scored at home. Given their current form, either of them is likely to find the net.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
Manchester United will host Crystal Palace at Old Trafford for the second time in a week. The home side aims to improve their standing in the league table, while Crystal Palace seeks valuable points in their campaign and is only a place behind in the table from their hosts (9th and 10th). United won easily on Tuesday, but Palace rested many of their top players.
Match Outcome: Manchester United to Win
Manchester United has a better Points Per Game (PPG) at home (2.00) compared to Crystal Palace’s PPG away (1.33). Additionally, Manchester United has won 2 out of their 3 home games, while Crystal Palace has only won 1 out of their 3 away games.
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams have a high scoring rate, with Manchester United at 100% at home and Crystal Palace at 100% away. The conceding rate is also high for both teams, making it likely that both will score.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
The average total goals for Manchester United at home is 3.33 and for Crystal Palace away is 2.33. Both are above the 2.5 mark, making it likely that the match will have more than 2.5 goals.
First to Score: Manchester United
Manchester United has scored first in 1 out of 3 home games, while Crystal Palace has conceded first in 1 out of 3 away games. Given Manchester United’s stronger home performance, they are more likely to score first.
Corners: Over 9.5
The average total corners for Manchester United at home is 12.67, and for Crystal Palace away is 10.00. Both are above the 9.5 mark, making it likely that the match will have more than 9.5 corners.
Half-Time Result: Draw
Manchester United has been losing at half-time in 2 out of 3 home games, while Crystal Palace has been level at half-time in 2 out of 3 away games. A draw at half-time seems plausible.
Player to Score: Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United)
Bruno Fernandes is the top scorer for Manchester United with 2 goals, one of which was scored at home. Given his form, he is a good bet to score.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester City
Manchester City, a perennial title contender, currently sits at the top of the table, showcasing their offensive prowess and defensive solidity. Their opponents, Wolverhampton Wanderers, find themselves in the mid-table, striving for a top-half finish this season.
Match Outcome: Manchester City to Win
Manchester City has been in excellent form, winning all 6 of their league matches so far. Wolverhampton, on the other hand, has won only 1 of their 6 matches. The form table clearly favours Manchester City.
Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City has an average of 2.67 goals per away match, and Wolverhampton averages 1 goal per home match. The total average goals for the match would be around 3.67, which suggests a high-scoring game.
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Wolverhampton has a 100% scoring rate at home, and Manchester City has a 100% scoring rate away. Both teams are likely to find the back of the net.
First Team to Score: Manchester City
Manchester City has scored first in 83% of their total matches and 67% of their away matches. Wolverhampton has only scored first in 50% of their home matches. Corner Bets: Over 9.5 Corners
Reasoning: Wolverhampton averages 8.00 total corners per home match, and Manchester City averages 13.00 total corners per away match. The likelihood of having more than 9.5 corners is high.
Player to Score: Erling Haaland
Reasoning: Haaland has been Manchester City’s top scorer with 8 goals, contributing to 50% of the team’s goals. He’s in excellent form and is likely to score. The only downside of this bet is the low odds, bet365 have the best I could find, offering 2/1 which effectively doubles your stake.
Riskier Bet: Exact Score: 3-1 in favour of Manchester City
Given both teams’ scoring and conceding averages, a 3-1 scoreline could be a possible outcome and is available at 11/1.
AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal
Arsenal, enjoying a solid start to the season, aims to continue their winning streak and solidify their position near the top of the table. Bournemouth are struggling and will be desperately seeking their first win of the season to climb out of the relegation zone
Match Outcome: Arsenal to Win
Arsenal has been in better form, with 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Bournemouth has yet to secure a win this season. Arsenal’s Points Per Game (PPG) for away matches is 3.00, significantly higher than Bournemouth’s home PPG of 0.67.
Both Teams to Score: No
Arsenal has not conceded a single goal in their last two away matches. Bournemouth has a low home-scoring rate, averaging just 0.33 goals per match.
Total Goals: Under 2.5
Both teams have been involved in low-scoring matches recently. Bournemouth’s home matches have an average of 1.33 total goals, and Arsenal’s away matches have an average of 1.00 total goals.
First Half Result: Draw
Bournemouth has been level at half-time in 67% of their home matches. Arsenal has been level at half-time in 100% of their away matches.
Corners: Over 7.5
Both teams have a high percentage of matches with over 7.5 total corners. Bournemouth averages 10.00 total corners in home matches, and Arsenal averages 10.50 in away matches.
Arsenal Clean Sheet: Yes
Arsenal has kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away matches, while Bournemouth has failed to score in 67% of their home matches.
Anytime Goalscorer: Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)
Saka is Arsenal’s top scorer this season with 3 goals and will likely be a key player in this match.
Newcastle v Burnley
If Newcastle wins, it would be their 3rd consecutive win, and could see them climb into the European spots. A win for Burnley would be their first in 6 matches, potentially signaling a turnaround in their season as they currently sit in the relegation zone in 19th place
Match Outcome: Newcastle United to Win
Newcastle has a stronger home record, averaging 2 Points Per Game (PPG) in their 3 home matches, while Burnley has averaged only 1 PPG in their 1 away game. Newcastle is also 9th in the league table, while Burnley is at the bottom.
Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Newcastle’s home matches have an average of 3.33 total goals, and Burnley’s away matches have an average of 2.00 total goals. The league average is 3.07.
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams have a 100% scoring rate in their respective home and away matches. Newcastle has a conceding rate of 67% at home, while Burnley has a 100% conceding rate away. The odds at 19/20 seem quite generous.
First Team to Score: Newcastle United
Newcastle has scored first in 100% of their home matches, while Burnley has conceded first in 60% of their total matches.
Total Corners: Over 9.5
Newcastle’s home matches have an average of 12 total corners, and Burnley’s away matches have an average of 9 total corners.
Anytime Goalscorer: Callum Wilson (Newcastle)
Callum Wilson is Newcastle’s top scorer with 4 goals and has scored in both home and away matches. However, there is a chance he may be starting on the bench as Alexander Isak was the hero in midweek in Newcastle’s 1-0 win over Manchester City in the Carabao Cup.
