Premier League Week 28: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 8 March 2024

Premier League match week twenty-eight is crucial, especially at the top of the table with the top two going head-to-head. Join us as our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews analyses five games that could significantly alter the championship race and European qualification.

The highlight of the weekend is the defending champions, Manchester City, travel to Anfield to face league leaders, Liverpool, in a match set to define the destiny of the winner of the Premier League. A win for Liverpool would see the gap at the top increase to four points, but a City win would see them claim the top spot.

Arsenal will be creeping behind the two with their home game against Brentford in the London derby; if the top two draw, a win will see the Gunners overtake them.

Manchester United will play Everton in the early kick-off, with both sides needing a good result to ease pressure on their under-fire managers. With both teams being unpredictable, this fixture could be popular with football betting fans.

Crystal Palace welcome Luton Town with both sides under threat for relegation. A mid-table clash between Wolves and Fulham is exciting as both sides have a clear chance to qualify for Europe and whoever wins could challenge for seventh place.

Premier League Betting – Manchester United vs Everton

Manchester United were humbled 3-1 by their neighbours Manchester City in the derby despite enjoying a halftime lead. It was the first defeat after leading at the break in the Premier League in an incredible run that dated back to 2014 and spanned 143 games.

Erik ten Hag’s team need to perform impressively to get them back in the top four race, as they are eleven points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa. The saving grace for the Red Devils is that Villa plays Tottenham, the other two contenders for position four; thus, this could be a golden chance to reduce the point gap on one or both of them.

A defeat would be their twelfth of the season – they have lost that many matches just twice in the Premier League era.

🚨🚨🎙️| Alejandro Garnacho on whether his bicycle kick was better than Wayne Rooney's:

"Too many people ask this, but I think Wayne Rooney's was more important. Against Manchester City, the moment is more important. But technique, probably mine." pic.twitter.com/toIYxEuELq

— centredevils. (@centredevils) March 1, 2024

Alejandro Garnacho scored a contender for goal of the season, a magical bicycle kick in the reverse fixture.

Manchester United have a good record against their weekend visitors, winning four consecutive games under their current manager while scoring two or more goals, which provides a realistic avenue to add three points.

Anthony Martial, Tyrell Malacia, Mason Mount, Lisandro Martínez, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Luke Shaw, and Rasmus Højlund are all unavailable for selection due to being marked as out. Meanwhile, Harry Maguire, Marcus Rashford, and Jonny Evans are doubtful, indicating uncertainty regarding their participation in the match.

Højlund’s continued absence will be a concern as United looks toothless without him. If Rashford is fit, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a 4-2-3-1 formation with Mainoo and Casemiro sitting just in front of the defence to add cover for the back four.

Home team top scorer: – Scott McTominay, anytime goal scorer 11/10 & first goal scorer 11/1.

Sean Dyche has failed to master a good defence for Everton, seeing his side failing to hold on to a lead for a second consecutive match. Their most recent howler saw them lose 3-1 to West Ham to extend their winless run to ten games (five draws, five defeats).

They have the third worst attacking tally after the bottom two sides, with just twenty-nine goals scored, which is quite a poor tally given their expected goals tally of 41.5. Playing away from home has been a stormy experience as they are winless in five games (two draws, three defeats), scoring twice in that run.

It wouldn’t be fair to call Beto a bad player. Statistically everything you’d want in this Everton team. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/AfPOvArXML

— efcdzn | EFC Design (@efcdzn) March 3, 2024

They should probably be working on a solid start, as their last four games have been goalless at the break. Regarding goals, Beto missed a penalty but scored in their match against West Ham. All four goals came in the second half in the 1-3 defeat.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is due a goal; the 26-year-old assisted in the 2-2 draw against Tottenham but hasn’t found the net in his last ten games in all competitions.

Away team top scorer: – Abdoulaye Doucoure, anytime goal scorer 14/5 & first goal scorer 11/1.

Selected bets: – Manchester United 7/8, Draw 29/10, Everton 3/1. Over 2.5 7/10, Under 2.5 6/5 BTTS: No 13/10 Yes 13/20

Premier League Betting – Arsenal vs Brentford

Arsenal are a team on a mission to make it to the history books again, becoming the first to score five or more for three consecutive games. The Gunners thumped league bottom side Sheffield United 6-0 the last time to extend their winning run to seven games.

They could temporarily move to the top of the table as Manchester City and Liverpool clash, and the London side will hope that game ends in a draw. They have a game against City on the horizon and are playing them on the last day of this month at the Etihad.

Mikel Arteta has instilled confidence and found a way to yield goals for a side that has generationally produced good football but failed to convert possession and good play into goals. The Spaniard has resisted spending big on a striker, but despite this, Arsenal is the league’s highest scorer (68) and boasts the meanest defence (23 conceded).

They have an excellent record in London Derby, winning the last two by an aggregate score of 11-0. I anticipate a solid performance; anything less than a win would surprise me.

Kai Havertz – New Era @kaihavertz29

pic.twitter.com/x46ZSlBaBv

— MB (@milesblen) March 7, 2024

In the last three games, Kai Havertz has five goal involvements (three goals, two assists).

Home team top scorer: – Bukayo Saka, anytime goal scorer 13/10 & first goal scorer 9/2.

Brentford forced a 2-2 draw against Chelsea in the last match, meaning they have dropped the highest tally of points (twenty-eight) from winning positions. They play another Premier League top-six team, Arsenal, and a consecutive London derby against a side they have won just once (two draws, seven defeats) against. They last won away against their weekend hosts.

Thomas Frank’s side had an impressive start to the campaign, but their form has since nosedived, and they are just six points off the relegation zone. Their current form is worrying, with just one win (one draw, five defeats) in the last seven games.

“Although I can only see Arsenal winning this one, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ivan Toney gets on the scoresheet to show a team he is being linked to what he can do. He is short-priced at 3/1 to score anytime, but I fancy him to score the opener at 9/1.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

The Bees will rely on Yoane Wissa, who has six of his previous eight goals coming against London sides. However, much of the attention will likely be on Ivan Toney, who is linked to a move to Arsenal. The 27-year-old hit the ground running on his return from a lengthy ban, scoring four in five games, but the Englishman has failed to score in his last three games (Manchester City, West Ham and Chelsea).

Away team top scorer: – Neal Maupay, anytime goal scorer 6/1 & first goal scorer 11/1.

Selected bets: – Arsenal 1/4, Draw 13/2, Brentford 12/1. Over 2.5 4/9, Under 2.5 41/20. BTTS: No 13/15, Yes 28/29.

Premier League Betting – Wolves vs Fulham

Wolves and Fulham have a mid-table squabble at the Molineux. The hosts sit tenth in the table and have European football aspirations, which is a realistic objective as they are just four points behind seventh-placed West Ham.

They suffered a 3-0 defeat against Newcastle United in their last match, which ended an impressive run of three wins in four games (one loss).

Gary O’Neil has developed a great attacking strategy for his side, averaging 1.5 goals per game that has set them on the European course. However, the Old Gold’s attacking exploits at the Molineux have been below par, as they have not scored more than one goal in their last three home games.

Their defence has been their pillar on home soil as they have not conceded in the three to maintain an unbeaten run (two wins, one draw) in the last three.

entra João Gomes: https://t.co/H8psRptQwT pic.twitter.com/1FUYtpRLLB

— Ф (@JoaoGomesFan) March 1, 2024

Joao Gomes is establishing himself as a robust midfielder with his tally of forty-three fouls, the second most in the Premier League.

Home team top scorer: – Pedro Neto, anytime goal scorer 7/2 & first goal scorer 8/1.

Fulham are three points behind Wolves, making this a significant avenue to break even and ignite a late European charge for themselves. The Cottagers are in fine form, losing just one of the previous six (three wins, two draws). They have won their last two games against sides in contention for European football (Brighton 3-0 and Manchester United 2-1).

They have collected four points from their last two away games, more than they have managed in ten games prior (three draws, seven defeats) collecting three points. In the previous seven attempts, Fulham have never won on the road against Wolves (five losses, two draws).

Rodrigo Muniz has six goal contributions (five goals, one assist) for his side in the last five games, including a goal and an assist in the previous match.

Away team top scorer: – Rodrigo Muniz, anytime goal scorer 23/10 & first goal scorer 13/2.

Selected bets: – Wolves 13/8, Draw 5/2, Fulham 9/5. Over 2.5 7/8, Under 2.5 19/20. BTTS: No 6/5, Yes 7/10.

Premier League Betting – Crystal Palace vs Luton

Oliver Glasner had a bright start to life at Crystal Palace with a 3-0 win against Burnley. The maestro had his first taste of the top six, losing 3-1 to Tottenham, and would be delighted his side has another home match against another relegated threatened team, Luton Town. The Eagles’ defences couldn’t hold on to an early lead, conceding three times in eleven minutes.

Crystal Palace don’t seem to be in real threat of relegation, with an eight-point cushion from the relegation zone. That gap might be increased if Everton and Nottingham Forest, as expected, receive points deductions for financial failings.

Selhurst Park has been a fortress with three wins (one loss) in their last four games while scoring three goals each game.

🦅🆚⚽ Exciting clash ahead in the EPL!

Crystal Palace takes on Luton Town this Saturday at 2:30 PM GMT | 3:30 PM WAT on SportyTV.

📺 Keep an eye on Ghana's Jordan Ayew and Carlton Morris as they feature in our player head-to-head stats board! pic.twitter.com/Yyw6VPRAGl

— SportyTV (@SportyTV_) March 8, 2024

They have lost four successive games from their previous five head-to-head (one win), including a 2-1 defeat in November. Jordan Ayew has three of his four coming at home with a total tally of ten goal contributions (four goals, six assists).

Home team top scorer: – Odsonne Edouard, anytime goal scorer 13/8 & first goal scorer 4/1.

Luton Town has lost four consecutive games in their worst run of the season. Rob Edwards lamented on his side’s defence as they came close to ending the losing run only to be stung late by Aston Villa to lose 3-2.

The Hatters are deeply entangled in the relegation fracas with four points between them and seventeenth-place Nottingham Forest, but they have a game in hand that can help them cut the deficit. Luton has two away wins this season, and if they can add another one at Selhurst Park, it would go a long way in increasing their chances of survival.

The saving grace for Edwards is that the two wins came against sides in the bottom half.

Alfie Doughty has been a revelation, providing six assists, a tally only bettered by Tottenham defender Pedro Porro and Newcastle’s Kieran Trippier.

Away team top scorer: – Carlton Morris, anytime goal scorer 15/2 & first goal scorer 15/2.

Selected bets: – Crystal palace 4/5, Draw 29/10, Wolves 15/4. Over 2.5 17/20, Under 2.5 68/67. BTTS: No 21/20, Yes 4/5.

Premier League Betting – Liverpool vs Manchester City

Liverpool welcome Manchester City to Anfield in a crucial encounter that could determine the destiny of the Premier League title. The Reds are on a six-game winning run in all competitions since they lost 3-1 against another title contender, Arsenal.

Jurgen Klopp would be worried about a raging injury crisis that has plagued Liverpool but has found a way around it, even winning the Carabao Cup with Klopp’s ‘kids’. Against a star-studded Manchester City, it’s a different ball game, especially with the Premier League title at stake with the news of Mohammed Salah’s possible availability a glimmer of hope.

The undying spirit of Liverpool saw them score a late winner against Nottingham through Darwin Nunez. In any other scenario, a draw would be a contenting result for either side, but with Arsenal lurking and if they win their Saturday match, they would start the day at the top of the table.

Liverpool is especially formidable when playing at Anfield, where they are unbeaten in thirteen games (eleven wins, two draws).

Coady Gakpo – Touch The Sky 🇳🇱pic.twitter.com/5FjklO8Nmt

— 🧎🏽 (@_wingplay) December 28, 2023

Coady Gakpo has been the inspiration in the absence of more senior attackers, with five of his six goals coming after the seventieth minute.

Home team top scorer: – Mohamed Salah, anytime goal scorer 17/10 & first goal scorer 6/1.

Manchester City would see this as their best opportunity to move to the top of the table if they can take all three points. Ironically, they play their next Premier League match against Arsenal in two games that would be crucial in their title defence.

This fixture could be their most challenging game, as no side has beaten Liverpool at Anfield all season, and they have only dropped 4 points in 21 games (0-0 with Manchester United and 1-1 with Arsenal). The defending champions will bring their best game as they are unbeaten in all competitions since they lost 1-0 against Aston Villa on the road in December.

All three defeats for Pep Guardiola’s side came on the road; thus, motivating the team in the intimidating Anfield stadium will be the biggest challenge.

The Citizens are on a run of five consecutive wins in all competitions, coming from a goal down to bully their neighbour Manchester United 3-1.

The notable difference in the game was how Manchester City wore down their opponents before going for the win, which could work for them, especially with the options on Liverpool’s bench being the teenagers who don’t have sufficient experience for such an intense encounter.

Pep Guardiola rested Kevin De Bruyne in the Champions League in midweek, a 3-1 win over Copenhagen.

Erling Haaland has eighteen goals and could be on the pitch with Liverpool’s Salah (fifteen goals) in an intensifying battle for the Golden Boot.

Away team top scorer: – Erling Haaland, anytime goal scorer 11/10 & first goal scorer 4/1.

Selected bets: – Liverpool 39/20, Draw 29/10, Manchester City 13/10. Over 2.5 8/15, Under 2.5 13/8. BTTS: No 15/8, Yes 40/85 with bet365.

The match between Manchester City and Liverpool is crucial in the Premier League title race; a draw would be a significant outcome. On a remarkable streak, Arsenal is expected to comfortably defeat Brentford, particularly with the advantage of playing at home.

The contest between Wolves and Fulham, both mid-table teams, is evenly matched and could result in either team winning. I anticipate a victory for Manchester United at home against Everton. Still, I’d classify that as a risky prediction with the injury crisis that the Red Devils are experiencing. Their opponents, Everton, are in dire need of points, so it’s unlikely to be a straightforward task.

Crystal Palace will likely leverage their home-field advantage to secure a win against Luton, aiming for all three points.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.comand WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.