Premier League Week 27: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 29 February 2024

Premier League match week twenty-seven reignites the title race, and the relegation battle intensifies as we move to the season’s final third. As always, there are some great games to look forward to, including the Manchester Derby and Everton taking on West Ham. Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, analyses five games, mainly focusing on the Premier League race and the relegation battles.

A new chapter is being written for Crystal Palace under manager Oliver Glasner. It started with a triumph, and now, they will have a first taste of the top six when they travel to Tottenham.

Everton, delighted after a four-point points reprieve, will be in high spirits welcoming West Ham to Goodison Park. Aston Villa will hope to keep their Champions League qualification alive while Luton Town are battling survival; both sides have something to lose when they face each other.

The Manchester derby is upon us, with Manchester City hoping to keep charge of the title race while United eyeing Champions League qualification. High-flying Arsenal will play the Premier League strugglers, Sheffield United. Some Premier League betting fans might see this game as an opportunity to back an upset, as both the Uniteds of Manchester and Sheffield are long odds to get a result.

Premier League Betting – Luton Town vs Aston Villa

Luton Town are arguably the most affected by Everton’s penalty and now sits in the final relegation slot. The Hatters suffered a third consecutive Premier League defeat in a 4-1 humbling by Liverpool at Anfield despite leading at halftime, and they followed it up with a 6-2 loss to Manchester City in the FA Cup. Of the three losses, the most regrettable would be the 3-1 thumping by fellow relegation-struggling side Sheffield United.

They are now four points from safety with a game in hand with their next run of games against top-six opposition: Manchester City, Liverpool, and Manchester United.

Luton Town have won just one of their last four home games (three defeats).

What an incredible goal from Jordan Clark! Have some of that! 😮‍💨🚀pic.twitter.com/g5sBrE2Coo

— CentreGoals. (@centregoals) February 27, 2024

Jordan Clark gave a masterclass performance, netting twice against treble winners, including an exceptional screamer from downtown who will hope to repeat the superb performance.

Home team top scorer: – Carlton Morris, anytime goal scorer 9/4 & first goal scorer 8/1.

Aston Villa is on high alert, given their opponents’ poor record against them, with thirteen defeats (including four draws and two losses). The visiting team aims for a third straight victory following a 4-2 triumph over Nottingham Forest, which solidified their fourth-place standing.

Unai Emery’s team has been excellent on the road, with just one defeat in seven (four wins, two draws) and conceding just once in three games (two wins, one draw). That should set them up for a strong performance even though they have already had a defeat against a newly promoted side (Nottingham Forest) this season.

Leon Bailey scored an assist in their Monday night win and has been their best outlet with devastating pace. He should marshal his side to victory at Kenilworth Road.

Away team top scorer: – Ollie Watkins, anytime goal scorer 6/5 & first goal scorer 17/4.

Selected bets: – Luton 10/3, Draw 13/4, Aston Villa 4/5. Over 2.5 10/21, Under 2.5 7/4. BTTS: No 7/4, Yes 1/2.

Premier League Betting – Tottenham vs Crystal Palace

Tottenham Hotspurs benefited from an extended break after their challenging London derby against Chelsea was postponed because of the Carabao Cup finals. This break gave them ample time to reflect on a disappointing 2-1 home loss to Wolves and prepare for their next home match against Crystal Palace.

The London derby against the Eagles has favoured them, winning the last eight head-to-head games while keeping seven clean sheets. Ange Postecoglou would love a shutout to motivate his defence, as his side has gone eight straight games without recording one.

Their top-four push is still alive, keeping pressure on fourth-placed Aston Villa, who sit five points ahead of them, but Spurs have a game in hand.

🚨 Heung-min Son is happy at Tottenham with formal talks on a new contract set to get under way.

(Source: Football Insider) pic.twitter.com/Qeoa8JWnd2

— Transfer News Live (@DeadlineDayLive) February 29, 2024

Heung-min Son scored the all-important decisive goal in the reverse fixture and has racked up eight goal involvements (six goals, two assists) in nine games against them.

Home team top scorer: – Heung -Min Son, anytime goal scorer 11/10 & first goal scorer 4/1.

Oliver Glasner’s reign for Crystal Palace got off to a flying start, hammering Burnley 3-0, ending a three-match winless run. The new Eagles gaffer will have a taste of a London derby playing away to a top-six opposition when he faces Tottenham.

Crystal Palace have an awful record in the nine London derbies this season, winning just once (losing five, drawing three). There is hope for them as they have been great in attack on the road, scoring in three of their last four away games (drawing two, losing two) and showing great potential despite being winless in that run.

Jordan Ayew was on target alongside Son in the reverse fixture and scored in their win against Burnley over the weekend.

Palace remains the only team that hasn’t scored in an away game before the fifteenth minute this season; they should aim for a strong start, especially as their host has conceded the first two goals in four out of their five matches in 2024.

Away team top scorer: – Odsonne Edouard, anytime goal scorer 3/1 & first goal scorer 10/1.

Selected bets: – Tottenham 1/2, Draw 19/5, Crystal Palace 28/5. Over 2.5 8/15, Under 2.5 31/20. BTTS: No 5/4, Yes 4/6.

Premier League Betting – Everton vs West Ham

Everton received a significant boost after their ten-point deduction was reduced to six, elevating them to fifteenth, five points clear of the relegation zone. Sean Dyche would use this as a morale boost to motivate his side to end their winless run of nine games (five draws, four defeats) when West Ham travel to Merseyside. Of course, they may find the points returned may yet disappear again as they have been charged with a second count of breaching financial rules.

The Toffees would be gutted for coming so close to taking maximum points when they faced Brighton but conceded a stoppage-time equaliser to draw 1-1.

They have been competitive, recording four draws in their last five games, and seemingly, a win is closer. Getting it here would be a milestone, the first double against the Hammers since 2014-15.

“The goals have dried up for Dominic Calvert-Lewin; his return of three goals is well below what we have come to expect from the 26-year-old. That said, his performances in the draws with Palace and Brighton were good, and I’ll be backing him at 9/5 in the anytime goalscorer market.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has not scored in twenty games, with his last goal coming in the win (1-0) against West Ham in the reverse fixture. The marksman has more goals against their visitors (six) than any other side in the Premier League.

Home team top scorer: – Abdoulaye Doucoure, anytime goal scorer 7/2 & first goal scorer 8/1.

West Ham kicked off the week with a 4-2 victory, highlighted by Jarrod Bowen’s hat-trick. David Moyes would be thrilled to see an end to a streak of six games without a win (three draws, three defeats). Their attacking performance was particularly notable, as they scored more goals in the single win against Brentford than they did in their previous six league games combined (three).

They are now eighth and would be dreaming again of European qualification as Moyes heads back to his former home ground.

The defence is still a worry for the Hammers as they have conceded two or more goals in four consecutive games but have a good record in the last three visits (two wins, one draw) and have not conceded more than once in the games.

A goal you can only post on this exact day every four years, but a special one.

On this day in 2020, Jarrod Bowen scored his first goal for the club ⚒️pic.twitter.com/KcVQOWxhTk

— COYIrons (@COYIronscom) February 29, 2024

Bowen’s hat-trick brought his total to fourteen goals, placing him among esteemed West Ham legends like Paolo Di Canio, with sixteen goals, and John Hartson, with fifteen, who have scored more.

Away team top scorer: – Jarrod Bowen, anytime goal scorer 3/1 & first goal scorer 15/2.

Selected bets: – Everton 11/10, Draw 13/5, Westham 47/18. Over 2.5 8/9, Under 2.5 1/1. BTTS: No 6/5, Yes 3/4.

Premier League Betting – Manchester City vs Manchester United

Manchester City have been in excellent form, putting the pressure on Liverpool for the title. Pep Guardiola’s side is on an incredible unbeaten run of eighteen games, dropping points just twice (two draws).

Whether they produce a goal galore as they did in the FA Cup 6-2 win or marshal a narrow 1-0 win in their previous two Premier League games, the defending Champions have found a way to subdue their opponents. They are on course to repeat their treble success.

The main concern for Manchester City has been their performance against the top teams, winning just once (3-0) in the reverse fixture against Manchester United. Of the six games, they have drawn four and lost once, scoring twelve and conceding ten, seemingly off their best performances.

Erling Haaland’s hold up play has improved so much pic.twitter.com/AiHWFv506G

— 𝐄𝐑 (@ErlingRoIe) February 29, 2024

Erling Haaland has a good record against United. His five goals in midweek should worry the United defence as the Norwegian discovers his form that was affected by an injury.

Home team top scorer: – Erling Haaland, anytime goal scorer 4/7 & first goal scorer 5/2.

In the Red Corner is Manchester United, who have fallen far from their dominance in the derby lately, being the underdogs in every derby they play. They have their eyes on the Champions League, but with eight points separating them and fourth-placed side Aston Villa, they have an arduous task to achieve this objective. Their quest for silverware was kept alive when they won it late in midweek to qualify for the quarter-finals of the FA Cup and have been drawn against Liverpool in the final eight.

A run of four consecutive wins was halted by a disappointing defeat against Fulham, where they conceded late to lose 2-1 at the Theatre of Dreams. They travel to the Etihad, hoping to destroy their neighbor’s hopes for a successive treble understanding that even a draw would hurt The Citizen’s title charge. However, the bookies feel this game will only go one way, with the Red Devils in double-digit odds to win.

Casemiro scored the late winner in the 1-0 win against Nottingham Forest and will have his hands full in the ever-busy midfield of Manchester City, with the battle at the centre of the park determining who controls the game.

Away team top scorer: – Scot McTominay, anytime goal scorer 8/1 & first goal scorer 25/1.

Selected bets: – Manchester City 2/7, Draw 11/2, Manchester United 10/1. Over 2.5 2/5, Under 2.5 39/19. BTTS: No 23/20, Yes 10/13.

Premier League Betting – Sheffield United vs Arsenal

Sheffield United has been struggling at the bottom of the table for an elongated period. Their tally of thirteen points is tied alongside Burnley, with both sides twelve points away from safety. A run of one win in the last ten games does no justice for their progress, with the win coming against fellow relegation strugglers Luton Town (3-1).

They boast the worst defence; conceding sixty-six goals would be a formidable task as they welcome the second-best attack in the league, Arsenal (sixty-two goals).

The Blades will face a tough challenge in preserving their Premier League status, mainly because of their weakest aspect, their offensive capability, having scored the fewest goals in the league with just twenty-two.

The threat of relegation looms over the home team, with Cameron Archer, their top scorer, netting the first goal in their sole victory of the year (2-1 against Luton Town) and his total of four goals being the team’s highest.

Home team top scorer: – Cameron Archer, anytime goal scorer 5/1 & first goal scorer 18/1.

Arsenal has emerged as one of the Premier League’s top teams, rebounding from a challenging start to the year where they suffered two consecutive losses. Their remarkable streak of form has bolstered their title aspirations, bringing them within just two points of the leaders, Liverpool, after securing six consecutive wins.

A significant positive is the possibility of having their entire squad to booster the final charge, with Jurrien Timber, Thomas Partey, and Oleksandr Zinchenko in contention to feature in the coming weeks. They hope to have their full-strength squad for the Champions League second leg.

Mikel Arteta is expected to focus on breaking down the low defensive blocks that Sheffield is likely to employ, a strategy that FC Porto used effectively against them. The Gunners have been in strong scoring form, with twenty-five goals in their last six games, averaging four goals per game.

Cleanse your timeline from the FA Cup noise pollution with this Bukayo Saka goal pic.twitter.com/Dl06UN0jOF

— • (@_goatnelli) February 28, 2024

Bakayo Saka has scored seven goals in the last five games and has been exacting his status as a world-class player.

Away team top scorer: – Bukayo Saka, anytime goal scorer 5/4 & first goal scorer 9/2.

Selected bets: – Sheffield 18/1, Draw 7/1, Arsenal 2/11. Over 2.5 21/50 Under 2.5 2/1. BTTS: No 4/5, Yes 59/50.

The Manchester derby could go either way, but I predict a routine win for title-chasing City. Arsenal should keep the pressure on Liverpool against the bottom side; thus, I predict them to take all three points.

Everton should have the artillery to beat West Ham at home, but a draw wouldn’t be a surprise with West Ham’s recent form.

Villa, driven by their European desires, should display their credentials with a win against Luton. Finally, Tottenham has an arduous task against Palace, but playing at home should give them the edge so Spurs can win the London Derby.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.comand WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.