Premier League Week 26: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 23 February 2024

Premier League match week twenty-six takes place this weekend, and as always at this stage of the season, there are some crucial games at both ends of the table. As Liverpool and Chelsea play in the Carabao Cup final, the teams around them hope to take points to pile on the pressure. At the bottom of the table, teams like Everton and Crystal Palace will look to win to ease their relegation fears. Join Luke as he previews the action.

A new chapter will be written for Crystal Palace under manager Oliver Glasner, hoping to have a winning start to his reign at Selhurst Park against relegation-battling Burnley. Brighton, who have eyes on European qualification, welcome another relegation-threatened team, Everton, in what is expected to be an intense battle as both sides hope to clinch vital wins.

Aston Villa, who have been losing their grip on the top four, face Nottingham Forest, who are slowly being dragged into the relegation battle. Bournemouth plays Manchester City in a match where many Liverpool and Arsenal fans will temporarily be cheering on the Cherries, hoping they can slow down the excellent form the defending champions are on.

Manchester United is in fine form and hopes they can reignite a charge to earn European qualification, but the Cottagers also need the points as they are only nine points away from the drop zone. As Manchester United have not been convincing in games, Premier League betting fans might see this game as an opportunity to back an upset.

Premier League Betting – Crystal Palace vs Burnley

The old reign of Roy Hodgson is behind us, and we welcome the new, youthful authority of Oliver Glasner. A first impression would be essential and equally exciting, and the former Eintracht Frankfurt manager couldn’t wish for a better assignment than relegation-threatened Burnley.

They won 2-0 in November, which sent the Eagles into the top half of the table, but a poor run of form sees them sit just five points of the relegation zone. Crystal Palace is on a run of three winless home games (one draw, two defeats) and would be motivated by a 1-1 draw on Monday night.

Furthermore, Glasner has won his first game in three of the four clubs he has managed (losing one), raising the prospect of getting value from a managerial bounce.

Tyrick Mitchell has scored just once since the 2020-21 season, which came against Burnley in the reverse of this fixture.

Home team top scorer: – Odsonne Edouard, anytime goal scorer 21/10 & first goal scorer 5/1 with BetTarget.

Burnley is a team desperate for points, or they could be destined for the Championship. Another disappointing performance, losing 5-0 against Arsenal at home, leaves them deeply rooted in the bottom three. Historically, no team has managed seventeen points after twenty-five games and survived the drop, leaving a tough battle for Vincent Kompany. That makes crawling off the red zone seemingly tougher, with just thirteen points accumulated this season.

The saving grace for Kompany’s side has been their courage to play on the road, where they have accumulated more points (eight) than while playing at home (five).

The Clarets have conceded exactly three goals in each of the last three away games, and if they can work on defending well, maybe they stand a chance at survival.

👐 Highest rated goalkeepers in the Premier League this season (20+ apps):

◎ 6.86 – Guglielmo Vicario
◎ 6.83 – André Onana
◎ 6.82 – James Trafford
◎ 6.80 – Emiliano Martínez
◎ 6.78 – Alphonse Areola pic.twitter.com/jLikprkOSu

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) February 16, 2024

James Trafford has been fundamental in trying to save his side from conceding endlessly as one of just two shot-stoppers to manage over a century of saves this campaign. He will indeed have a busy day in office.

Away team top scorer: – Lyle Foster, anytime goal scorer 9/2 & first goal scorer 10/1.

Selected bets: – Crystal Palace 19/20, Draw 12/5, Burnley 3/1. Over 2.5 21/20, Under 2.5 3/4. BTTS: No 9/10, Yes 9/10.

Premier League Betting – Brighton vs Everton

Brighton has been lukewarm this season, hurting their European qualification but hanging onto the top seven. They won two in their previous six games, drew two, and lost two.

Roberto De Zerbi’s impressive strategy has been to start strong in games, as they had lost just once when they scored first in the previous eleven games (seven wins, three draws). They have been confident on the attack, scoring at least three goals in nine of their ten Premier League wins.

The Seagulls welcome Everton, hoping to record successive wins for the first time since September on the back of a 5-0 thrashing of Sheffield United over the weekend. Their home form has been their stronghold this campaign, unbeaten in the last ten games (five wins, five draws).

Big win. +3 🫡💙 pic.twitter.com/MYEAueFX7y

— Danny Welbeck (@DannyWelbeck) February 18, 2024

Danny Welbeck has eight goal involvements (four goals, four assists) against their weekend guests and should be confident leading the lines.

Home team top scorer: – Joao Pedro, anytime goal scorer, 19/10 & first goal scorer, 5/1.

Everton scored a late goal to earn a crucial point against Crystal Palace (1-1). Sean Dyche’s men are currently in the longest run (eight games) without a win in the Premier League, drawing four and losing four. The Toffees had won six of the previous eight (one draw, one defeat) before this run, with a ten-point deduction seemingly taking a toll to drag them back to the relegation battle.

They will see Brighton as a great opportunity, especially with their impressive run of four wins (two draws, two defeats) in the previous eight games. They were impressive, winning 5-1 in this fixture last season and are desperate for three points in their current circumstances.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin would be eager to end a poor record of nineteen games without a goal and the worst ratio of goals scored per expected goals (no goals from xG of 2.12).

Away team top scorer: – Abdoulaye Doucoure, anytime goal scorer 23/5 & first goal scorer 12/1.

Selected bets: – Brighton 17/20, Draw 3/1, Everton 16/5. Over 2.5 4/6, Under 2.5 6/5. BTTS: No 11/8, Yes 13/20.

Premier League Betting – Aston Villa vs Nottingham

Aston Villa’s European aspirations were redeemed after bouncing back from a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Manchester United to win by the same score against Fulham over the weekend. They maintain their top-four credentials but must consistently get results to achieve their Champions League dream.

Unai Emery would be eager to get his side to home form as the defeat against Manchester United was the third in a row in all competitions. It was a dark stain from their impressive run of seventeen games (sixteen wins, one draw) unbeaten before that run.

This is some season Ollie Watkins is having for @AVFCOfficial 👏 pic.twitter.com/pyi9Uih4Kp

— Premier League (@premierleague) February 3, 2024

Ollie Watkins scored a double to make it four goals in four games and a bright star in starting games early as his two goals came inside the opening twenty-five minutes.

Home team top scorer: – Ollie Watkins, anytime goal scorer 5/4 & first goal scorer 9/2.

The Tricky Trees appointed former referee Mark Clattenburg as a performance analyst, kick-starting his professional analysis with a 2-0 win against West Ham. Nottingham Forest is four points above the relegation zone but needs to gain more ground as the league intensifies.

They recorded their first clean sheet in fourteen games which was another positive performance to carry into the new game week as they hope they won’t face a point deduction as it would cripple their survival hopes.

On the road, they have been particularly blunt, losing seven (winning two, drawing three) and surprisingly, their two wins came against sides in the top half of the table. They have lost the previous three games on the road against a side in the top four, with Aston Villa sitting fourth, making this a tough challenge.

Callum Hudson-Odoi scored against West Ham over the weekend in his third consecutive match and has hit top form for Nottingham.

Away team top scorer: – Taiwo Awoniyi, anytime goal scorer 23/10 & first goal scorer 15/2.

Selected bets: – Aston Villa 11/20, Draw 18/5, Nottingham Forest 5/1. Over 2.5 4/7, Under 2.5 29/20. BTTS: No 5/4, Yes 4/6.

Premier League Betting – Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Bournemouth are winless in the previous six games (three draws, three defeats), a run that could make them vulnerable to the looming relegation battle as they are eight points off the drop zone.

They have collected the second lowest points (three) since the turn of the new year, a record only eclipsed by Burnley (two).

A tough weekend is on the cards, facing a title-chasing Manchester City, against whom they have lost the last thirteen Premier League games. It is a Premier League record for a single opponent’s worst 100% losing record.

The Cherries have failed to win in twelve games against teams that begin the match week in the top four (ten defeats, two draws), meaning taking a point here would be almost like winning a trophy for the home side.

Dominic Solanke has scored 14 Premier League goals this season. Only 2 players have scored more.

Underrated. 🤩 pic.twitter.com/vlGySLVPEy

— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) February 17, 2024

Dominic Solanke could do his former side, Liverpool, a favour if he can marshal his side to take points off their rivals in the title challenge. He is in fine form, with fourteen league goals this campaign.

Home team top scorer: – Dominic Solanke, anytime goal scorer 11/4 & first goal scorer 9/1.

Manchester City are a team in red-hot form and closed the gap on Liverpool to just one point before Liverpool’s win on Thursday restored their four-point lead. They triumphed 1-0 against Brentford midweek to extend their unbeaten run to sixteen games (fourteen wins, two draws).

Pep Guardiola would be worried about his side’s form on the road as they conceded first in their last six Premier League away games. They have, however, won their previous four away games and could make it five in a row for the first time since May.

They have a great fighting spirit, scoring their last five goals on or after the 70th minute.

Phil Foden has a good record against the Cherries, scoring in their previous three Premier League appearances against them.

Away team top scorer: – Erling Haaland, anytime goal scorer 8/11 & first goal scorer 14/5.

Selected bets: – Bournemouth 13/2, Draw 9/2, Manchester City 21/50. Over 2.5 1/2, Under 2.5 9/5. BTTS: No 13/10, Yes 7/10.

Premier League Betting – Manchester United vs Fulham

Erik Hag has figured out how to get his side to score goals, something they were struggling especially in the first half of the season, marshalling a great run of form that sees the Red Devils closing in on the top four. They, however, failed to seal opportunities to kill the game and were left defending for their lives to hold on for a narrow 2-1 win against Luton Town.

Manchester United are now on a four-game winning run with the prospects of new minority owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe changing the club structure and throwing in finances to bolster the team. Five points off fourth place, the mood is much-improved at Old Trafford. However, most Red Devils fans will be cautious as there have been many false dawns in recent years, and even Ratcliffe has asked the supporters to be patient.

They welcome Fulham, who they are unbeaten against in eighteen games (fifteen wins, three draws).

Rasmus Hojlund has recovered from a rocky start to become the youngest Premier League player to score in six consecutive games.

Home team top scorer: – Rasmus Hojlund, anytime goal scorer, 13/10 & first goal scorer, 9/2.

Fulham has an arduous task heading to Old Trafford, losing their last four straight games against Manchester United with Erik ten Hag in charge. The last time they won at this stadium was in 2003 in a run of sixteen games (fourteen defeats, two draws). Marco Silva’s side sits in midtable, seemingly unambitious to chase European qualification and far enough away to be dragged into the relegation struggle.

They have won one in their last eight games (three draws, four defeats). In addition, Fulham are in dreadful away form this season, collecting just seven points, a tally only eclipsed by the bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United (five points). That culminates in a winless run of eleven games (four draws, seven defeats) since winning against Everton in August.

“It has just been announced that Rasmus Hojlund could be out for three weeks. This is a massive blow for United and great news for Fulham. As Fulham are available at 5/1, I’m tempted to back them.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Fulham destacando os gols de Rodrigo Muniz nos ultimos três jogos de Premier League.pic.twitter.com/tBnfgLV8tN

— Fla Reporta (@flareporta) February 18, 2024

However, times are tough for the London side, with the hopes for redemption lying on Rodrigo Muniz, who has scored four goals in the last three games.

Away team top scorer: – Bobby de Cordova-Reid, anytime goal scorer 9/2 & first goal scorer 13/1.

Selected bets: – Manchester United 4/7, Draw 7/2, Fulham 5/1. Over 2.5 4/7, Under 2.5 6/4. BTTS: No 13/10, Yes 4/6.

Crystal Palace could greatly benefit from a change in management, and with Burnley seeking redemption, this match is poised to be tense. However, I believe the home team will perform well to impress their manager.

Manchester City is expected to trounce Bournemouth, and I did anticipate a victory for Manchester United against Fulham, given both Manchester teams’ exceptional recent form, but with the breaking news that Hojlund is out, I’m backing the visitors to get something.

Everton, motivated by the threat of relegation, will likely challenge Brighton fiercely, whereas Aston Villa’s strong attack should be sufficient to secure a win against Nottingham Forest.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.