Premier League Week 13: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 24 November 2023

The Premier League’s title race is heating up as the competition intensifies and teams shape their mid-season strategies. Our in-house sports expert, Luke Andrews, has selected five standout games for their performance, form, and historical significance. This season introduces a new twist with point deductions for Everton, who have violated financial fair play rules, adding an extra layer of complexity to the competition.

Matchweek thirteen is poised to impact the title race significantly, with top contenders Man City and Liverpool facing off. The outcome of this match could provide a crucial advantage as the season nears its midpoint. A draw could open the door for Arsenal to climb to the top of the table. The Gunners, facing Brentford in a pivotal London derby, aim to bolster their title aspirations and avoid a repeat of last season’s disappointments.

Chelsea, known for their electrifying performances against top-six teams, are set to clash with Newcastle, who impressively finished fourth last season, promising yet another action-packed match which is likely to be popular among Premier League betting enthusiasts.

Tottenham Hotspur, having lost some of their earlier season momentum, seeks a return to form in their match against fifth-placed Aston Villa, who have the potential to break into the top four with a victory.

Meanwhile, Everton’s recent positive streak was disrupted by a points deduction, and they now host Manchester United at Goodison Park, adding another layer of intrigue to this matchweek.

Premier League Betting – Manchester City v Liverpool

This match marks another chapter in the celebrated rivalry between Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola, as their respective teams, both dominant forces in the Premier League, clash in a pivotal encounter. These teams have been instrumental in shaping the league’s landscape over the past six seasons.

The defending champions lead the league, holding a slim one-point advantage over second-placed Liverpool. Expectations for an electrifying match are high, especially following the thrilling 4–4 draw between Manchester City and Chelsea in the previous round.

Manchester City, playing at their stronghold, the Etihad Stadium, boasts an impressive streak of twenty-three consecutive wins across all competitions. A victory in this match would equal Sunderland’s record of twenty-four straight home wins, a milestone set back in 1892.

Key to City’s success is Erling Haaland, the league’s leading scorer with thirteen goals, continuing his remarkable form from the previous season.

Home team top scorer: Erling Haaland odds for first 13/1 and anytime scorer 8/11.

Liverpool is on an impressive twenty-three-match run where they have won fifteen, drawn seven, and lost just once, which started after a 4 – 1 defeat to their weekend hosts.

Liverpool has hit their stride and emerged as a formidable contender for this season’s Premier League title. Klopp is keen to break a streak of seven winless visits to the Etihad, which includes three draws and four losses. The history between Klopp and Guardiola is notable, with the two having faced off twenty-eight times. Klopp has won twelve of these encounters, while Guardiola has won eleven, making it the most frequent and challenging managerial matchup for both.

Both teams have maintained an unbeaten record in their last four matches, securing three wins and one draw each. Consequently, a loss in this game could significantly impact their momentum. Despite the stakes, neither manager is known to compromise their aggressive playing style, regardless of the opponent. This approach suggests the upcoming match could be a high-scoring affair.

pic.twitter.com/chnlgIKD8G

— Mohamed Salah (@MoSalah) November 13, 2023

With ten goals this season, Mohamed Salah is just three behind Haaland and continues to display excellent form.

Away team top scorer: Mohammed Salah; odds for first are 12/5, and the anytime scorer is 8/1

Selected bets: Manchester City 8/11, Draw 7/2, Liverpool 18/5. Over 2.5 1/2, Under 2.5 33/20. BTTS Yes 11/20 No 13/8.

Premier League Betting – Newcastle United v Chelsea

Eddie Howe was delighted for the international break, having lost two consecutive games, 2 – 0 to Dortmund, which dented their European hopes and 2 – 0 against Bournemouth.

They have an injury crisis with six key players sidelined and new signing Sandro Tonali on a lengthy suspension.

The goal for the Magpies will be to hold on till the January window and reinforce the team banking on their vast financial muscle by their wealthy owners.

Now sitting seventh, Newcastle are six points adrift of the top four and welcome Chelsea to St. James Park, who they have triumphed in their last four Premier League games.

Antony Gordon has scored in the previous two home games for the Magpies, including the winning goals against London side Arsenal, and would be their most likely goalscorer.

Home team top scorer: Callum Wilson odds for first 6/1 and anytime scorer 15/8.

Chelsea is determined to break their streak of four consecutive losses against their upcoming opponents. Mauricio Pochettino is likely pleased with his team’s recent offensive form, having scored four goals in each of their last two matches, resulting in one win and one draw.

Chelsea is currently tied for third place in the league for expected goals (xG) with 21.7 and has not lost any of their last four away games, achieving three wins and one draw. Despite a challenging start to the season, they have stepped up their performance against top-six teams, securing draws against Arsenal (2-2) and Liverpool (1-1), a high-scoring draw with Manchester City (4-4), and a decisive 4-1 victory over Tottenham.

Having finished in the top four last season, Newcastle United continues to perform at a level comparable to the top four teams. This sets the stage for a highly competitive match against Chelsea, both teams aspiring for a top-four finish. On a personal note, Chelsea’s manager holds a record of six wins, one loss, and one draw against Newcastle’s Eddie Howe. His track record at St. James Park includes one defeat, three wins, and one draw.

Away team top scorer: Nicolas Jackson; odds for first 7/1 and anytime scorer 41/18.

Selected bets: Newcastle United 8/5, Draw 5/2, Chelsea15/8. Over 2.5 22/25, Under 2.5 1/1. BTTS Yes 4/6 No 13/10.

Premier League Betting – Brentford v Arsenal

Brentford’s impressive run of three consecutive wins ended at Anfield, where they lost 3 – 0 to Liverpool.

Thomas Frank is likely pleased with his team’s performance, yet he faces the challenge of leading Brentford against another top-six team, Arsenal. This matchup is notable as Brentford defeated Arsenal in their first game upon returning to the Premier League.

The Bees have an impressive record at the Brentford Community Stadium in London Derbies, remaining unbeaten in their last fourteen matches (with eight wins and six draws). This record boosts their confidence as they prepare to face their London rivals, Arsenal. However, their recent history against Arsenal includes a 1-0 defeat in the League Cup in September and no victories in their last four meetings, with one draw and three losses since their 2-0 triumph over Arsenal in their Premier League debut.

GoaL! | Cameroon 1-0 Mauritius | Bryan Mbeumo

pic.twitter.com/BOgsr3UHhm

— Football News Centre (@FutbolNewsCom) November 17, 2023

Bryan Mbeumo, a key player for Brentford, has been particularly influential in London derbies since the start of the previous season, contributing to eight goals and posing a significant threat on counterattacks.

Home team top scorer: Bryan Mbeumo odds for first 15/2 and anytime scorer 11/4.

Arsenal has been showing remarkable progress, bouncing back from what seemed like an anomaly last season to emerge as a serious contender for the title, challenging Manchester City at the top of the Premier League standings. Under Mikel Arteta’s leadership, Arsenal currently holds the third spot in the league, trailing the leaders by just one point as they went into the international break following a convincing 3-1 victory over Burnley.

The Spanish manager Arteta looks forward to celebrating his 200th game at the helm with a victory, boasting an impressive record of 115 wins, 34 draws, and 50 losses. This achievement is particularly noteworthy, considering he had to undertake a significant rebuild of the team to reach its current level of performance.

The Gunners have to work on their performances on the road to keep their title hopes alive as they have just one win in the last five (one draw, three defeats) but will be confident, having won 3 – 0 in their previous game here.

Arsenal averages 2.17 goals per game and has lost just once, relying on Bakayo Saka, who has eight goals in this campaign (four goals and four assists).

Away team top scorer: Saka odds for first 7/1 and anytime scorer 23/10

Premier League Betting – Everton Vs Manchester United

Everton celebrated a significant victory in their last match before the break, defeating Crystal Palace 3-2 away from home. Under Sean Dyche’s management, the team has enjoyed an unbeaten streak in their last four matches, with three wins and a draw, distancing themselves by eight points from the relegation zone. This marks Dyche’s most successful period since joining the Merseyside club.

However, Everton faces challenges due to a penalty for financial fair play violations, which resulted in a deduction of ten crucial points, plunging them back into the relegation battle. Despite this setback, there’s hope that the recent punishment won’t dampen the high spirits of the players and fans, buoyed by the team’s impressive recent performances.

Spending the day looking at Everton’s in-possesion plays; patterns, intentions, routines, their relationship with the ‘position of maximum opportunity’ (POMO) & the role of Abdoulaye Doucouré. Aim to outline Dyche’s ‘direct’ attacking principles. Potential Opp-analysis this week. pic.twitter.com/yY8liketyR

— Calum (@1818Calum) November 19, 2023

As they prepare to host Manchester United, Everton boasts a notable improvement in their goal-scoring abilities, largely thanks to Abdoulaye Doucoure, who has netted nine goals under Dyche’s tenure.

Home team top scorer: Dominic Calvert Lewin: Odds for first 7/1 and anytime scorer 8/11.

Manchester United has been navigating a challenging phase marked by injuries and a struggle to find the back of the net. Currently, in sixth place, the Red Devils have managed to score only thirteen goals, the lowest among the top-half teams, with their counterparts all scoring in the twenties.

Under Erik Ten Hag’s leadership, the team has secured more points than any other in the last five games, achieving four wins and one defeat. Notably, all their victories have been by a narrow one-goal margin. After bouncing back from two consecutive away losses, Manchester United has won their last three matches and aims to maintain this momentum at Goodison Park.

Bruno Fernandes has been a key player since he arrived at Old Trafford, contributing to thirty-eight goals (twenty-two goals and sixteen assists). Despite their overall performance challenges, the Red Devils have consistently found ways to score and secure victories.

Away team top scorer: Scott McTominay: Odds for first 20/1 and anytime scorer 8/11.

Selected bets: Everton 15/8, Draw, 13/5, Manchester United 31/20. Over 2.5 5/6, Under 2.5 21/20. BTTS Yes 4/6, No 13/10.

“Despite Manchester United being the league’s form side, their performances have not been great, and they have ridden their luck. With Everton feeling hard done by with their ten-point deduction, I expect them to do their talking on the pitch. I’m backing the Goodison Park crowd to play a part, and I’ll be backing the Toffees. The price of 15/8 is simply too good to turn down.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Premier League Betting – Tottenham v Aston Villa

Tottenham Hotspur has experienced a notable period at the summit of the Premier League, with Ange Postecoglou proving to be a fitting choice to lead the team to their optimal performance. They maintained an unbeaten streak until a challenging match against Chelsea, where they received two red cards and suffered a 4-1 defeat.

Their form dipped in a subsequent game against Wolves. Despite scoring first, Tottenham struggled to dominate and ultimately conceded two late goals, resulting in a 2-1 loss. This period also saw their strong defensive record compromised due to injuries and suspensions affecting three of their regular defenders, impacting their overall performance.

Facing a crucial match against fifth-place Aston Villa, Tottenham needs a solid showing to maintain its position in the league. A victory for Villa could see them leapfrog into the top four. Heung Min Son, who has scored six goals in seven matches against Villa, has been in excellent form this season, adeptly filling the role typically held by Harry Kane.

Home team top scorer: Son Heung –min odds for first 11/2 and anytime scorer 6/4.

Aston Villa has emerged as a surprise contender this season, showing the potential to disrupt the established hierarchy of the ‘Big Six’ Premier League teams. With many teams still finding their footing, Villa has accelerated into high gear, demonstrating impressive form and consistency.

Under the guidance of former Arsenal manager Unai Emery, known for his expertise in European competitions, Villa has set its sights on the Europa League, bolstered by their strong start to the season. Their confidence is high, especially considering their success against Tottenham Hotspur last season, where they secured all six points in their encounters.

Before the international break, Villa clinched a 3-1 victory over Fulham, and their current points tally stands thirteen higher than at the same stage last season. Their recent form is noteworthy, with only Liverpool and Manchester United outperforming them in the last five matches.

Insane intensity. Douglas Luiz to Arsenal 🔥pic.twitter.com/AeNIecbEti

— Gooner Chris (@ArsenalN7) November 18, 2023

However, their away record leaves room for improvement, with four wins, four losses, and one draw in their last nine away games. Douglas Luiz, a key player for Villa, made a significant impact in both home and away games against Spurs last season, scoring in each.

Home team top scorer: Away team goal scorer Ollie Watkins, Odds for first 11/2 and anytime scorer 7/4.

Selected bets: Tottenham 11/8, Draw 29/10, Aston Villa 15/8. Over 2.5 8/15, Under 2.5 33/20. BTTS Yes 7/15, No 19/10.

The resumption of football following the international break brings a lineup of thrilling matches that promise to electrify the weekend. Each game we’ve spotlighted tells a compelling story, with the outcomes potentially having significant implications for the Premier League title race. Expectation is exceptionally high following the exhilarating eight-goal spectacle between Manchester City and Chelsea.

Arsenal’s upcoming clash with Brentford further heightens the intrigue, adding another layer of intensity to the already heated rivalry between Liverpool and Manchester City. Both teams are determined to maintain their stronghold at the top of the table, ensuring a fiercely competitive duel. Fans are in for a treat, as these matches are set to showcase some of the finest football from arguably the best league in the world.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.comand WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.