Mercedes Set to Struggle in Canadian F1 Grand Prix
At first glance, the Mercedes F1 team appears to be on an upward curve. And its drivers, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell are the obvious choice to chase home Max Verstappen in this weekend’s Canadian Grand Prix.
A Mercedes 4-5 finish in Monaco at the end of May was bettered by a double podium 2-3 result in Spain a week later. However, aficionados will know that both these circuits are categorized as ‘high downforce’ tracks. The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal’s Parc Jean-Drapeau is very different.
Lewis Hamilton may have to take a back seat in the Canadian Grand Prix. ©MercedesF1/Jiri Krenek
The 4.361-kilometre track is similar in its characteristics to that of the Baku City Street Circuit. Both have long straights – requiring lower drag – punctuated by slower-speed corners, chicanes, and hairpins. The problem for Mercedes fans … the team’s drivers finished only sixth and eighth at that venue six weeks ago.
Lay Lewis to Exchange Places
The first bet suggestion for Sunday’s race is to visit the betting exchanges and lay Lewis Hamilton in the podium finish market. The Brit is an exceptionally short 11/10 proposition to make the podium for a third time in eight 2023 race starts.
In a race where finishing numbers are generally high – an average of 18 drivers have been classified as finishers in all Canadian races since 2010 – the prospects of the Mercedes driver benefiting from rivals’ misfortune must be considered low.
If the Red Bull drivers, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, and the resurgent Fernando Alonso, keep their cars on the track, it will surely be difficult for either Mercedes driver to finish ahead of them. A fifth-placed finish may be the best Hamilton or Russell can achieve on Sunday.
Max and Bull Are Red Hot
There are strong grounds to believe Max Verstappen – a 1/3 poke even with the best motorsport betting sites – will win this weekend’s race. The Dutchman is rewriting the record books in what ominously looks like becoming the most one-sided Formula 1 season of all time.
His Red Bull team has won eight consecutive races, including all seven of this year’s contests. No team has ever won every race in a season, but Verstappen acknowledged in Barcelona that Red Bull could complete the feat.
Red Bull have won 17 of the last 18 races. The closest any team has come to that degree of dominance was McLaren, in 1988, when the British team went 15-from-16. Verstappen set the record of 15 wins in a single season in 2022, and he has already won five times in 2023.
Canada’s Circuit Gilles Villeneuve has a lot of similarities with the Baku Street Circuit. ©MercedesF1
Will It Be a Ferrari Fastest Lap?
As was the case with the 2023 Monaco Grand Prix, the historical data suggests the race winner – who we predict will be Verstappen – will not set the fastest lap of the race on Sunday. Only twice in the last 14 Canadian GP has this double been achieved (by Button in 2011 and Hamilton in 2017).
Verstappen has claimed three of the seven fastest-lap awards this season. This stat alone makes his even-money odds too short this weekend. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz – available on 10/1 and 14/1 at YetiBet – make more appeal.
One Stop One Narrow Margin Winner
A clue to one of the reasons why race winners fare poorly in the fastest lap stakes comes in the winning margin column of historical Canadian Grand Prix results. It shows race winners rarely win by far at this circuit.
That fact can be credited to tyre preservation. The perfect race-winning strategy is normally taking just one pitstop during the race. Drivers taking two tyre changes during the contest will be disadvantaged, but they will have a fast car during the closing laps of the race.
9/4 odds are available on Sunday’s race winner having less than five seconds to spare over his nearest pursuer when he sees the chequered flag. There are enough reasons to believe the odds outweigh the probability. That makes it a logical bet.
Sunday’s Best Formula 1 Bets
- LAY Lewis Hamilton in the podium finish market
- Charles Leclerc to set the fastest lap 10/1
- Carlos Sainz to set the fastest lap 14/1
- Winning margin under five seconds 9/4
