If You Are Fast You May Find Some Monaco F1 Betting Value
Cars have been racing on the streets of Monaco since 1929 and in Formula 1 since the sport’s 1950 debut season. Renowned for its glamour and prestige, the Monaco Grand Prix is part of motorsport’s Triple Crown alongside the Indianapolis 500 and the 24 Hours of Le Mans.
Zhou Guanyu caused a shock when recording the fastest lap of the 2023 Bahrain Grand Prix. Will the Monaco Grand Prix provide another big-priced fastest lap-getter this Sunday? ©Getty
Those other two races are focused on endurance, but the Monaco Grand Prix is a very different race. Its tight and twisting circuit layout demands high levels of concentration, precision, and finesse. Here the slightest misjudgment can lead to disastrous consequences.
At 3.33 kilometers, the Circuit de Monaco is Formula 1s shortest track. It is almost a kilometer shorter than the next on the list, Zandvoort. It also has the shortest run from pole position to the first braking zone on the 2023 Formula 1 calendar.
Doing the Math to Achieve the Results
Only 42 percent of the lap time in Monaco is raced at full throttle, the lowest figure of all the Formula 1 tracks on this year’s calendar. And it is a busy lap for drivers when it comes to gear changes – 52 are required each on each tour of the circuit. The Monaco circuit is dominated by slow and medium-speed corners, including some of the lowest corner speeds on the calendar. Its narrow layout has changed little over the years, but the cars certainly have – and that adds to the challenge of threading the needle through the eye that is the twisty streets of Monaco. Formula 1 teams and their drivers have a difficult task balancing their car set-up between pure speed and efficient cornering. Formula 1 punters have a similarly difficult task in identifying the point where the betting odds available outweigh the probability of an outcome happening.
Have the F1 Bookmakers Done Their Homework?
Statistically, finding the winner of this race does not appear too difficult. The formbook shows that 11 of the past 12 Monaco Grand Prix were won by either the Red Bull or Mercedes teams. In 2023 Red Bull has been more dominant than ever, and therefore it is difficult to see beyond its driver pairing of Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez.
Judged on previous results, it appears unlikely Sunday’s race winner will score by more than 10 seconds or set the fastest lap of the race. ©Brindley
Unfortunately, the odds compilers at the best motorsports betting sites have done their homework. They have reigning world champion Max Verstappen quoted on 5/4 for the race win. His teammate, the 2022 Monaco Grand Prix winner, can be backed at only 3/1.
Backing the pole sitter to win the race is another angle that is supported by the statistics. Thirteen of the last 18 Monaco Grand Prix started the race from the pole position. At 8/11 odds, Formula 1 betting sites have dangled a big carrot before punters’ noses. But the price is not going to make them rich.
Take Big Odds About Fastest Lap Kippers
The list of previous results suggests there is some outstanding betting value in the Monaco Grand Prix’s fastest-lap market. Here, understandably, Max Verstappen is the favorite. However, with just two race winners setting Monaco’s fastest lap during the past two decades, the stats suggest that if Verstappen does justify his short race odds, he is unlikely to justify his fastest lap odds. Let us hope he does win the race paving the way for a big-priced result in the fastest-lap market. So far this season, Zhou Guanyu has already pulled off a 100/1 shock when setting the fastest recorded time at the Bahrain Grand Prix.
In 2017, when driving for the Force India team, Sergio Perez set the fastest lap of the Monaco Grand Prix at triple-digit odds. Last year at the venue Yuki Tsunoda came very close to landing fastest lap odds of 250/1.
And so, the recommendation is to back a handful of drivers at treble-digit odds to provide our fastest lap shock. It is an outcome that could be helped by rain during the race – and that is something predicted by some long-range weather forecasts.
Pierre Gasly (125/1 Yetibet), Lando Norris (125/1 Betfair), Yuki Tsunoda (150/1 William Hill), Zhou Guanyu (150/1 William Hill), and Nico Hulkenberg (150/1 Bet365) are our bet suggestions.
