Dubai World Cup Favorites Have to Beat Their Wide Draws
Five Group-1 races and three Group-2 contests combine to make Saturday’s races at the Dubai World Cup meeting worth a staggering $30.5 million. The feature contest, the Dubai World Cup, carries a top prize of $12 million.
Country Grammar is the favorite to retain his Dubai World Cup crown despite drawing a wide starting stall. ©GettyImages
Meydan Racecourse is expecting a capacity 80,000 attendance and, interestingly, for the first time in the Dubai World Cup’s 27-year history, the meeting takes place during the holy month of Ramadan. The time to break from fasting will fall just after the sixth race – the $2 million Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen – and ahead of the $6 million Sheema Classic.
It is estimated one-quarter of the world’s population observes the Islamic holy month, and many will fast from sunrise to sunset. But, with the event showcased live by over 40 broadcasters, the bulk of an enormous global viewing audience will watch the action with a refreshing drink and snacks at hand.
Japan Is Seven Strong in Cup
Not only are the World Cup viewers cosmopolitan, but so are the horses, trainers, and owners contesting this meeting. And the bulk of the World Cup prize money is likely to travel out of Dubai this year.
The country’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed, cannot win back his own money in 2023. His Godolphin operation may have won three of the past four renewals of the $12 million World Cup – and 11 times in total – but he has no representative on Saturday.
Japan is the country that is predicted to scoop up the majority of the prize money on offer. The country fields seven runners in the Dubai World Cup and it has outstanding chances in many other races. Last year Japanese horses won five races on the World Cup card.
Japan has won the $12 million feature contest just once, whereas American horses have taken the prize 13 times. However, only in the past few years have Japanese horses ventured outside of their country in significant numbers – and the results have been breathtaking.
Can Algiers Bridge a 26-Year Gap?
So where is the 2023 Dubai World Cup sponsored by Emirates Airline destined to land? With odds of 7/2, horse racing betting sites marginally favor last year’s winner, Country Grammer. The American-trained horse took the 2022 renewal following a second-placed effort in the world’s richest race, the Saudi Cup.
Frankie’s done it! Bob Baffert’s Country Grammer wins the Dubai World Cup under @FrankieDettori at Meydan! #DWC22 pic.twitter.com/yN64QCbSam
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) March 26, 2022
Four weeks ago, Country Grammer added £2.9 million to his career earnings by placing second in the Saudi Arabian contest for a second time. It is an encouraging form-pointer. However, his conqueror, the Japanese-trained Panthalassa, is in opposition once again.
It is a British horse that trades as the second favorite. The six-year-old Algiers will attempt to become the first UK-trained winner since Singspiel in 1997 to take the prize. Always a capable performer at Listed level, in winning two Group-2 races, the Simon and Ed Crisford-trained horse has excelled in Meydan this year.
Emblem Road Can Confirm Saudi Success
These three contenders take fifty percent of the book. 12/1 or greater is available for all other contenders. The value probably lay amongst the outsiders as Panthalassa, Country Grammer, and Algiers have collectively drawn starting stalls 15, 14, and 13. In a two-turn race such as the ten-furlong World Cup a wide draw is a sizeable disadvantage.
Starting in stall-2, Emblem Road’s Saudi Arabian rider should be able to negotiate the course in the most direct way. But he was not aboard when this horse earned £7.4 million when winning the 2022 Saudi Cup ahead of Country Grammer at odds of 50/1.
Once again, horse racing betting sites have dismissed this one’s chances. Emblem Road is available on 25/1. Given his winning form against the big race favorite and superior starting lane, the odds seem generous.
Japan’s High-Speed Bullet Trains
But Japanese trainers have not traveled to Dubai to simply play in the sand. Last year’s Dubai World Cup results demonstrated their visiting horses are extremely fast, talented, and regularly belie their odds.
Ushba Tesoro’s early career was punctuated by long spells on the sidelines. Two quick runs and two victories in his native Japan indicate he is now in rude health. Improving and beating the accomplished T O Keynes (winner of £3.2 million during his career) on his latest outing, 12/1 odds make this horse a contender to consider.
【Japan Cup (G1), 2400m, Tokyo, JRA】
Vela Azul won the Japan Cup !#JRA #horseracing #JapanCup #VelaAzul pic.twitter.com/tHVQMHO4Np
— HorseRacingInJapan (@HorseRacing_JPN) November 27, 2022
Available at the same price is Vela Azul. Winner of the Japan Cup under Ryan Moore in late November, this lightly-raced horse is officially the highest-rated horse in the World Cup field. Take away his only subsequent start – when running way below his best in a Grade-1 on Christmas Day – and he would be trading at a low single figure.
Every horse is entitled to one bad day, and detractors that point to his poor form on artificial surfaces fail to mention these came at the start of his career over an insufficient trip. We concede he may need a strong-pace to be seen at his best. But, with the favorites jostling for an early position from wide draws, this could happen.
