Champions League Round of 16 First Leg Week 1 – Previews
The Champions League round of sixteen is here as we experience the best teams in Europe battle over two legs in their quest to be crowned the most prestigious team in club football. Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, analyses all four games that will be played this week, looking at squad strength and potential dark horses in this year’s tournament.
Danish Champions, FC Copenhagen, who are making their second appearance in the knockout phase, welcome the reigning European Champions Manchester City. Bayern Munich needed a trip away to escape their domestic troubles, and a trip to Italy with Lazio, their hosts, could be precisely what they needed as they seek European glory.
In their quest for a fifteenth title, Real Madrid begins the knockout phase against Leipzig, while PSG welcomes Spanish side Real Sociedad to the romantic city of Paris on Valentine’s Day.
Champions League Betting – FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City
FC Copenhagen battled as underdogs in a group that had German giants Bayern Munich and English powerhouse Manchester United to qualify for the knockout phase for just the second time in the club’s history. From the frying pan straight into the fire, the Lions are drawn against treble winners Manchester City, a side they have never won against in four games (two draws, two defeats).
The Danish champions managed a goalless draw against Manchester City in the group stage last season at the Parken and are in fine home form, hoping to repeat the same performance. They have just three defeats in nineteen Champions League home games (eight wins, eight draws). The last time Copenhagen played in the knockout phase, they played English side Chelsea, who beat them 2-0 at home to knock them out.
Mohammed Elyounuossi has five goals in the last two appearances, and while at Basel, he scored and provided an assist in 2018 to beat Manchester City 2-1.
| FC Copenhagen’s Last Five Matches | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Competition | Date | Match |
| D | UCL | 29-11-23 | Bayern Munich 0:0 FC Copenhagen |
| L | DS | 03-12-23 | FC Copenhagen 1:2 AGF |
| L | DC | 06-12-23 | FC Copenhagen 0:2 Silkeborg |
| W | DC | 09-12-23 | Silkeborg 1:2 FC Copenhagen |
| W | UCL | 12-12-23 | FC Copenhagen 1:0 Galatasaray |
Home team top scorer: – Lucas Lareger, anytime goal scorer 4/7 & first goal scorer 11/2.
Manchester City has been developing its credentials from being a domestic champion to becoming one of the ruthless teams in knockout competitions. Pep Guardiola is an overambitious manager with his eyes glued on a second consecutive treble within their reach.
The visitors are in fine form with ten successive wins across all competitions and won all their six group stage games, scoring exactly three goals in each of them. The Citizens have an ongoing record of twenty games, unbeaten in European competitions, the highest number for an English side.
The three-time Champions League-winning manager would have to work on his defence, which has managed just two clean sheets across thirteen games in all competitions.
🗣️ Pep Guardiola on Erling Haaland in the #UCL:
"𝙉𝙤𝙩 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝙈𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞 𝙤𝙧 𝙍𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙙𝙤 𝙘𝙖𝙣 𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙘𝙝 𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙣𝙪𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙜𝙚." 🔢
He's not wrong 😳 pic.twitter.com/D68rhNaUVn
— LiveScore (@livescore) February 13, 2024
Erling Haaland scored five goals against Leipzig in their round-of-sixteen match last season and returned to the scoring sheets over the weekend with a goal against Everton. The Norwegian was the previous season’s top scorer and would pounce on a chance to win the Golden Boot again, especially this early in the knockout phase.
| Manchester City’s Last Five Matches | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Competition | Date | Match |
| W | EPL | 13-01-24 | Newcastle 2:3 Manchester City |
| W | FAC | 26-01-24 | Tottenham 0:1 Manchester City |
| W | EPL | 31-01-24 | Manchester City 3:1 Burnley |
| W | EPL | 05-02-24 | Brentford 1:3 Manchester City |
| W | EPL | 10-02-24 | Manchester City 2:0 Everton |
Away team top scorer: – Erling Haaland, anytime goal scorer 5/2 & first goal scorer 5/1.
| Head-to-Head: FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City | ||
|---|---|---|
| Competition | Date | Match |
| UCL | 11-10-2022 | FC Copenhagen 0:0 Manchester City |
| UCL | 05-10-2022 | Manchester City 5:0 FC Copenhagen |
| UEL | 26-02-2009 | Manchester City 2:1 FC Copenhagen |
| UEL | 19-02-2009 | FC Copenhagen 2:2 Manchester City |
Selected bets: – FC Copenhagen 14/1, Draw 11/2, Manchester City 1/4. Over 2.5 8/13, Under 2.5 7/5. BTTS: No,8/11, Yes, 6/5.
Champions League Betting – Leipzig vs Real Madrid
The scale of the task ahead for one of the newest teams to grace the Champions League is massive as they prepare to face the most successful team in the competition, Real Madrid. At this stage, the German side lost 8-1 on aggregate to eventual winners Manchester City last year, so it’s no surprise that football betting sites are sceptical about their chances.
Leipzig beat Real Madrid 2-1 in last season’s group stages, which should give a glimmer of hope for Marco Rose, who drew 2-2 over the weekend against Augsburg.
The Red Bulls are vastly isolated in the race for the Bundesliga top four, sitting three points behind Dortmund, who occupy fourth and eighteen behind surprise leaders Bayer Leverkusen but boast a good record in this competition with four wins (one draw, one defeat) in the previous six home games.
They have been fast starters, opening the scoring within the first quarter of an hour in three of their last four Champions League encounters (winning three, losing one).
𝐀𝐦𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐁 𝐋𝐞𝐢𝐩𝐳𝐢𝐠’𝐬 🇩🇪 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐫𝐬 🔥
🇸🇮 B. Sesko (20y) scoring for 3 games in a row
⚽️⚽️⚽️🇧🇪 Lois Openda (23y) scoring for 4 games in a row
⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️A duo that cost Leipzig 🇩🇪 62.5M€, and has now a market value of 85M€ 💰 pic.twitter.com/tansO7FiZz
— Rising Stars XI (@RisingStarXI) February 10, 2024
Lois Openda has found the back of the net for the Germans in their previous four games and should be their primary threat in front of goal.
| RB Leipzig’s Last Five Matches | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Competition | Date | Match |
| L | GB | 13-01-24 | RB Leipzig 0:1 Eintracht Frankfurt |
| L | GB | 20-01-24 | RB Leipzig 2:3 Bayer Leverkusen |
| L | GB | 27-01-24 | VfB Stuttgart 5:2 RB Leipzig |
| W | GB | 04-02-24 | RB Leipzig 2:0 Union Berlin |
| D | GB | 10-02-24 | Augsburg 2:2 RB Leipzig |
Home team top scorer: – Lois Openda, anytime goal scorer 33/20 & first goal scorer 5/1.
Real Madrid comes into this encounter with settled nerves, having restored order in their domestic campaign, beating title rivals Girona 4-0 to build a five-point gap at the top. They had a perfect group stage in Europe, winning all six group games and are eyeing a fifteenth European title. They lost against their host last season, but that defeat counts as the only blot in their record against German sides across thirteen encounters (eight wins, four draws).
The Los Blancos are a strong side and have found mysterious ways to win games even when they aren’t playing well, with their three away wins in the group stages coming by a single-goal margin.
They would be short in attack with the absence of Jude Bellingham, who is expected to take some shine away from their flare, but they have Vinicius Junior, who opened the score over the weekend, available.
| Real Madrid’s Last Five Matches | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Competition | Date | Match |
| W | SLL | 21-01-24 | Real Madrid 3:2 Almeria |
| W | SLL | 27-01-24 | Las Palmas 1:2 Real Madrid |
| W | SLL | 01-02-24 | Getafe 0:2 Real Madrid |
| D | SLL | 04-02-24 | Real Madrid 1:1 Atletico Madrid |
| W | SLL | 10-02-24 | Real Madrid 4:0 Girona |
Away team top scorer: – Jude Bellingham, anytime goal scorer, 7/4 & first goal scorer, 18/1 (unlikely to play). Alternatively, Vinicius Junior is an anytime goal scorer, 6/4 & first goal scorer, 5/1.
| Head-to-Head: RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid | ||
|---|---|---|
| Competition | Date | Match |
| UCL | 25-10-2022 | RB Leipzig 3:2 Real Madrid |
| UCL | 14-09-2022 | Real Madrid 2:0 RB Leipzig |
Selected bets: – RB Leipzig 9/4, Draw 39/14, Real Madrid 5/4. Over 2.5 4/6, Under 2.5 13/10. BTTS: No 31/20, Yes 4/7.
Champions League Betting – Lazio vs Bayern Munich
Lazio welcomes Bayern to Italy for the first leg of their two-round Champions League round of sixteen tie. The Aquilotti will have to deliver an exceptional performance against one of the genuine contenders for the Champions League title but must first book a place in the final eight for the first time in their history.
They won 3-1 against Cagliari at the weekend, a performance that ended a three-game winless run. The Italians lost both legs at this stage against Bayern in 2021, part of their poor record against German sides, with one win in seven games (one draw, five defeats). They will be backing on their form at the Stadio Olimpico in European action, where they have lost just once in twelve home games (winning six, drawing one).
CAGLIARI-LAZIO 1-3
⚽️ aut. #Deiola (26'), #Immobile (50'), #Gaetano (51'), #FelipeAnderson (65')#SkySport #SkySerieA #CagliariLazio pic.twitter.com/WFTc4FUuMy
— skysport (@SkySport) February 10, 2024
Felipe Anderson is a man on form with three goal involvements (two goals, one assist) in five games.
| Lazio’s Last Five Matches | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Competition | Date | Match |
| W | ISA | 14-01-24 | Lazio 1:0 Lecce |
| L | ISC | 19-01-24 | Inter 3:0 Lazio |
| D | ISA | 28-01-24 | Lazio 0:0 Napoli |
| L | ISA | 04-02-24 | Atalanta 3:1 Lazio |
| W | ISA | 10-02-24 | Cagliari 1:3 Lazio |
Home team top scorer: Ciro Immobile, anytime goal scorer 13/5 & first goal scorer 15/2.
Bayern Munich is in deep trouble in its domestic campaign, losing 3-0 to title-hopeful Bayern Leverkusen to extend the gap to five points. With the situation at the league, they can focus on the journey to Italy, hoping they can get a result on the road and extend their unbeaten record of seven games (five wins, two draws) that dates back to April last year.
The defeat over the weekend ended an impressive run of three consecutive wins, and they would be eager to jump back and hope to feature in their twelfth quarter-final in thirteen editions.
A win for the Bavarians will set them up for a sixth consecutive win against a Serie A side, with their history of scoring after the hour mark documented in seven of their previous eight goals. Matthijs de Light was on the bench over the weekend and would be fresh to start against a side he has never lost against in three head-to-head games (two wins, one draw).
| Bayern Munich’s Last Five Matches | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Competition | Date | Match |
| L | GB | 21-01-24 | Bayern Munich 0:1 Werder Bremen |
| W | GB | 24-01-24 | Bayern Munich 1:0 Union Berlin |
| W | GB | 27-01-24 | Augsburg 2:3 Bayern Munich |
| W | GB | 03-02-24 | Bayern Munich 3:1 Borussia M. Gladbach |
| L | GB | 10-02-24 | Bayer Leverkusen 3:0 Bayern Munich |
Away team top scorer: – Harry Kane, anytime goal scorer 1/1 & first goal scorer 3/1.
🚨 Harry Kane would likely welcome the arrival of José Mourinho at Bayern Munich, having formed a strong bond with Mourinnho during his time at Tottenham.
(Source: @MirrorFootball) pic.twitter.com/FXyTLAKISV
— Transfer News Live (@DeadlineDayLive) February 13, 2024
” Bayern only managed one shot on target in a Bundesliga match at the weekend, the first time in eight years that their shot total was so low. The Germans will be looking for redemption, and I think they’ll get it in this match. I’ll be backing Harry Kane to get back to scoring, and at odds of 1/1, it’s a chance to double my stake.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.
| Head-to-Head: Bayern Munich vs Lazio | ||
|---|---|---|
| Competition | Date | Match |
| UCL | 17-03-2021 | Bayern Munich 2:1 Lazio |
| UCL | 23-02-2021 | Lazio 1:4 Bayern Munich |
Selected bets: – Lazio 17/4, Draw 3/1, Bayern Munich 7/10. Over 2.5 10/13, Under 2.5 23/20. BTTS: No 23/20, Yes 10/13.
Champions League Betting – PSG vs Real Sociedad
PSG is in the knockout phase of the UEFA Champions League for the twelfth consecutive time and is still eyeing a first title in the European competition. The Parisian giants failed to progress from this stage in five of the previous seven campaigns; ironically, three of the five were against Spanish opposition.
The French side has been exceptional in the Champions League campaign with just seven defeats from seventy-two home games (forty-six wins and nineteen draws).
Luis Enrique, a Champions League winner with Barcelona, will emphasise his side to take the advantage, especially while starting the two-legged tie at home. They have an unbeaten home record in thirteen games (eleven wins, two draws) that dates back to September last year.
Ousmane Dembele won nine and lost one of his ten appearances against Real Sociedad, scoring four. However, the hosts have scored just once in their previous five games in the competition and hope that will change against the Spaniards.
| Paris Saint-Germain’s Last Five Matches | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Competition | Date | Match |
| W | FCdF | 20-01-24 | Orleans 1:4 Paris Saint-Germain |
| D | FL1 | 28-01-24 | Paris Saint-Germain 2:2 Brest |
| W | FL1 | 02-02-24 | Strasbourg 1:2 Paris Saint-Germain |
| W | FCdF | 07-02-24 | Paris Saint-Germain 3:1 Brest |
| W | FL1 | 10-02-24 | Paris Saint-Germain 3:1 Lille |
Home team top scorer: Kylan Mbappe, anytime goal scorer 1/1 & first goal scorer 3/1 with bet365.
Real Sociedad will hope the European atmosphere will motivate their side to a better result as they are on a run of four goalless games (three draws, one defeat). They lost 1-0 to Osasuna and now have to perform better against one of the decorated sides in the competition in their first appearance in the knockout stage in two decades.
The Spaniards will be hoping to relive their group stage impressive form that saw them concede just twice in the group stages. More impressively, they didn’t concede in all three away group games and thus would be confident travelling to Paris for a first-ever encounter against PSG.
Álex Remiro said: "NOT TODAY" 🫸#LALIGAHighlights | @RealSociedadEN pic.twitter.com/uoD4OoRbzU
— LALIGA English (@LaLigaEN) February 7, 2024
Sociedad’s goalkeeper, Alex Remiro, is on four clean sheets and with the talent in the host’s attack, he could have a busy day in the office to keep his side in the game.
| Real Sociedad’s Last Five Matches | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Competition | Date | Match |
| W | SCdR | 23-01-24 | Celta Vigo 1:2 Real Sociedad |
| D | SLL | 27-01-24 | Real Sociedad 0:0 Rayo Vallecano |
| D | SLL | 03-02-24 | Girona 0:0 Real Sociedad |
| D | SCdR | 06-02-24 | Mallorca 0:0 Real Sociedad |
| L | SLL | 10-02-24 | Real Sociedad 0:1 Osasuna |
Away team top scorer: – Mikel Oyarzabal, anytime goal scorer 7/2 & first goal scorer, 19/2.
Selected bets: – Paris Saint-German 7/10, Draw 3/1, Real Sociedad 23/5. Over 2.5 19/20, Under 2.5 10/11. BTTS: No 19/20, Yes 10/11.
On paper, it seems like a straightforward performance and results for the top dogs, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Manchester City, and PSG. We could be set for competitive, star-studded quarter-finals if the favoured teams win. However, football is an unpredictable sport, and I predict one giant will fall, especially across two legs. The optics change as home advantage plays a crucial part in the results.
All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.
All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.
