Champions League Quarter-Finals Second Leg Previews

by Luke Andrews, 16 April 2024

The second leg of the Champions League quarter-finals will determine the four teams to feature in this year’s edition. Teams from Spain, France, Germany and England are all vying for a spot in the Champions League semi-final. Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, analyses the four games, looking at the teams that could spring second-leg comebacks in their ties.

Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund lead the underdog story, with the Spaniards carrying a one-goal advantage to Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park.

PSG travel to Camp Nou, hoping they gain revenge for the biggest comeback in Champions League history. The French club lost the first leg 3-2 and face an uphill battle to qualify.

Bayern Munich and Arsenal must shake off domestic disappointments at the Allianz Arena and battle it in the Champions League. The two teams provided plenty of entertainment in the first leg, drawing 2-2, so this game is wide open and is likely to be popular when football betting.

The same can be said of the heavyweight clash between Real Madrid and Manchester City. The two sides settled for a thrilling 3-3 draw at the Santiago Bernabeu. They are the two sides that have had a hand in the previous two titles, with the winner of this tie in the last two editions going ahead to win the title. It’s a decisive encounter, and the winner will be branded favourites to claim the biggest prize in European club football.

Champions League Betting – Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid

Borussia Dortmund have a 2-1 deficit to overturn when they welcome Spanish giants Atletico Madrid. The sides are now level on their head-to-head record (three wins, three defeats, one draw), so there is little between them.

The German side bounced back from an away draw (1-1) to win the second leg (2-0) in the round of sixteen against PSV. The Germans have quite an even record against the Spaniards (eleven wins, fourteen defeats, twelve draws); most wins (eight) have come at home.

Edin Terzic would have to motivate a team that has lost in each of their last five quarter-final appearances but, on the positive, has progressed in eight of eighteen campaigns when they lost the first leg.

Karim Adeyemi has recorded the highest top speed in this year's Champions League 💨

🥇 Karim Adeyemi – 36.3 km/h
🥈 Kylian Mbappe – 36.1 km/h
🥉 Erling Haaland – 36.0 km/h pic.twitter.com/m7m14ue1yB

— Stats24 (@_Stats24) April 10, 2024

Karim Adeyemi was red-carded over the weekend and thus would make the most of the European game, as each of his last four goals has been the opening goal.

Home team top scorer: – Niclas Fullkrug, anytime goal scorer 11/5 & first goal scorer 13/2.

Atletico have a 2-1 advantage heading to the hostile Signal Iduna Park. They followed the European win with a 3-1 win, a third consecutive win to make a strong claim at the top four domestically. Diego Simeone has guided Atletico to three semi-finals in the Champions League but hasn’t managed this achievement since 2016-17.

If he guides them to one more final-four appearance, he would be second to Sir Alex Ferguson in semi-final appearances with the same club. They have, however, not found joy in travelling to Germany, losing seven (two wins, one draw) of the ten trips.

The poor record includes four successive defeats, all coming under their current gaffer, but heading there with the advantage and focusing on defending, the task feels quite manageable.

Antoine Griezmann avec son prime en 2018 pendant Coupe du Monde ! 🥵🇫🇷

pic.twitter.com/QO8jMOnXOl

— SimpleFoot (@SimpleFoot__) April 16, 2024

Antoine Griezmann scored a brace over the weekend and has goals against their hosts while playing for Atletico and Barcelona.

Away team top scorer: Alvaro Morata, anytime goal scorer 7/4 & first goal scorer 11/2.

Selected bets: – Borussia Dortmund 13/10, Draw 11/4, Atletico Madrid 36/17. Over 2.5 7/10, Under 2.5 6/5. BTTS: No 6/4, Yes 6/10.

Luke’s prediction – Borussia Dortmund 2 Atletico Madrid 1.

Champions League Betting – Barcelona vs Paris Saint-German

Barcelona is eyeing a place in the final four and holds the advantage after a 3-2 win in France, heading to the clash at Camp Nou. Having announced his exit at the end of the season, Xavi Hernandez has the arduous task of preventing crashing out of Europe and guiding his side to a first semi-final appearance since 2018-19.

Quite an evenly matched and exciting twist to this encounter as the Catalans led (1-0), trailed (2-1), then bounced back again to win (3-2) the game. The Spaniards have a positive record at home against French opposition, winning nine (two draws, two defeats).

A worrying factor is that their last engagement with PSG here ended with a 4-1 defeat, despite progressing in 37 of their previous 39 when they won the first leg.

ready for another Raphinha masterclass 🇧🇷🔥 pic.twitter.com/MfbtELcXW3

— BarcaTiempo (@BarcaTiempo) April 16, 2024

Raphinha scored his first Champions League goal with his brace coming after the half-hour mark, just like the last seven of his eight goals.

Home team top scorer: – Robert Lewandowski, anytime goal scorer 13/10 & first goal scorer 5/1

PSG might be down on aggregate, but abolishing the away goal rule means one goal keeps the tie level. The history between the two sides, with a competition record of the highest goals overturned (four goals) in the last head-to-head fixture, means we could be set for a dramatic exhibition at Camp Nou.

Despite being on the receiving end of the comeback win, Luis Enrique was the manager in charge of Barcelona at the time. Having switched allegiance could orchestrate a magical moment in the tie. They have a poor record in the Champions League second legs, losing all seven ties after losing the first leg.

Kylian Mbappe, i never doubted you I know you’re going to do something magical against Barcelona tonight….🔥 pic.twitter.com/tmL7q8X722

— Dickson (@Um__Dickson) April 16, 2024

The tables may be turned as they have a world-class talent in Kylian Mbappe, who scored a hattrick in the last head-to-head and scored a brace in Spain when they faced Real Sociedad in the round of sixteen.

Away team top scorer: – Kylian Mbappe, anytime goal scorer 11/10 & first goal scorer 4/1.

Selected bets: – Barcelona 27/20, Draw 3/1, Paris Saint German 2/1. Over 2.5 1/2, Under 2.5 7/4. BTTS: No 2/1, Yes 4/9.

Luke’s prediction – Barcelona 3 Paris Saint-Germain 3.

Champions League Betting – Bayern Munich vs Arsenal

Two sides had disappointing domestic results over the weekend, with Bayern seeing their eleven-year grip on the Bundesliga end with the triumph of Bayern Leverkusen. Arsenal lost their slim lead at the top of the Premier League table after a 0-2 defeat at the Emirates by Aston Villa. As a result, both teams will be desperate to put the weekend behind them, and a spot in the semis could offer a degree of redemption.

The Germans would be satisfied to carry a draw (2-2) in the first leg in London but would feel undone with an unawarded penalty in the second half. Gabriel Jesus picked up the ball after the referee had blown his whistle for a goal kick but dismissed Bayern’s calls for a spot-kick by calling the instance a “schoolboy error”.

Bayern have a good record when they drew the first leg away from home (winning twenty-two, losing three) and had a remarkable record against the English opposition (seventeen wins, seven draws, four defeats).

The quarter-finals have been their Achilles heel in the competition, as they were knocked out thirteen times, including in the previous three campaigns.

Harry Kane: "It was a disappointing season for us in the league. Congratulations to Leverkusen for what they've achieved. We haven't reached our top level this season. I want to help the team, whether in the Champions League or the league. It's no secret that this club is set out… pic.twitter.com/S6SD4gMzva

— Bayern & Germany (@iMiaSanMia) April 16, 2024

Harry Kane is tied with Wayne Rooney on fifteen goals as the highest scorer against Arsenal.

Home team top scorer: – Harry Kane, anytime goal scorer 5/4 & first goal scorer 4/1.

The Gunners are in the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time in fourteen years. That said, a draw against the German giants at home felt like a disappointing result. Like Bayern, Arsenal also believed they should have had a penalty when Bukayo Saka went down in the final seconds of stoppage time.

Arsenal have been great travellers in Europe, losing just four (twelve wins, five draws) in the last twenty-one games, a record that propelled them to the semi-finals of the 2008-09 campaign. A 2-0 defeat over the weekend at home against Aston Villa and losing their spot at the top of the Premier League isn’t a convincing look heading to Germany. Still, the game is finely balanced, and a decent performance could see them through.

Mikel Arteta would be desperate for a managerial masterclass, having squandered and mismanaged their weekend game, especially in the second half. It was a golden opportunity for the Gunners to reclaim the top spot, especially as Liverpool suffered a shock 0-1 loss at home to Crystal Palace. With Manchester City winning, Arsenal no longer have the upper hand.

Arsenal lost all four two-legged ties against the German opposition; the German opposition refers to Bayern Munich.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿💫 Bukayo Saka in the UCL this season: 4 goals + 4 assists.

👨🏻‍🍳 @BukayoSaka87 IS COOKING…. pic.twitter.com/5Nr95NJ0Pe

— CentreGoals. (@centregoals) April 12, 2024

Bakayo Saka scored the opening goal in the first, meaning three of his last four Champions League goals have come in the first twenty-five minutes.

Away team top scorer: -Bukayo Saka, anytime goal scorer 14/5& first goal scorer 9/1.

Selected bets: – Bayern Munich 11/8, Draw 31/11, Arsenal 39/20. Over 2.5 13/20, Under 2.5 4/3. BTTS: No 8/5, Yes 11/20.

Luke’s prediction – Bayern 2 Arsenal 1.

Champions League Betting – Manchester City vs Real Madrid

An entertaining 3-3 goal festival at the Santiago Bernabeu between Manchester City and Real Madrid sets us up for another mouthwatering clash at the Etihad. The winner of this tie has gone ahead to win the competition in the last three editions, making this a crucial encounter.

Pep Guardiola’s side have the momentum, having taken charge at the realm of the Premier League after a 5-1 win against Luton to move two points clear. The Citizens won 4-0 in the semi-finals last season, and a win would equal their record of forty-two consecutive unbeaten games that dates back to 1919-1921.

They could be the only other team after AC Milan to have knocked out Real Madrid in the Champions League in consecutive seasons.

Josko Gvardiol silently produces a masterclass every time he plays pic.twitter.com/IetkHUGtVr

— 17 (@DxBruyneSZN) March 17, 2024

Defender Josko Gvardiol has three goal involvements (two goals, one assist) in the last two games and could provide an auxiliary source of goals from dead balls in a match of fine margins.

Home team top scorer: – Erling Haaland, anytime goal scorer 10/11 & first goal scorer 100/30.

Real Madrid seems to have met their match as they head to the Etihad as potential underdogs. The fourteen times European winners have had one win (two draws, four defeats) in seven games against Manchester City.

They won 1-0 against Mallorca over the weekend, with their dominant lead in La Liga giving manager Carlo Ancelotti room to rotate his team. The Los Blancos have been the dominant side in the competition and have been shaken by the new Galactico’s Manchester City.

The tie between the two has produced some of the best moments in the Champions League in recent years, and this promises to be one other between the two sides that have had a hand in the last three Champions League titles.

La clase de Jude Bellingham. 🎩 pic.twitter.com/1rRXurwolF

— MT (@MadridTotal_) April 16, 2024

Jude Bellingham is the joint assist provider in the competition and has five goals, three coming between the fiftieth minute and the hour mark.

Away team top scorer: – Jude Bellingham, anytime goal scorer 18/5 & first goal scorer 9/1.

Selected bets: – Manchester city 4/6, Draw 10/3, Real Madrid 4/1. Over 2.5 3/5, Under 2.5 6/4. BTTS: No 11/8, Yes 13/20.

Luke’s prediction – Manchester City 2 Real Madrid 1.

“Although this is a game that could go either way, I expect home advantage to be crucial as City take a step closer to retaining the Champions League. The first leg ended 3-3, but I predict a single goal will settle this game. Therefore, I’m going for a City 2-1 win, available at 15/2 with bet365.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

This week’s Champions League action promises to be a great couple of days of action, especially if you are neutral. In Tuesday’s games, Barcelona has home and a one-goal advantage over PSG, who are yet to win this famous competition. In contrast, Dortmund needs their Die Gelbe Wand (Yellow Wall) support to overcome a one-goal deficit against Atletico.

The games on Wednesday are finely balanced for the English clubs. Arsenal travel to Germany after a 2-2 draw at the Emirates, and City have home advantage in Manchester as they renew their rivalry with the most successful team in Europe, Real Madrid. The teams drew 3-3 in Spain, and if this 2nd leg is as good as the first, it will be a spectacular tie.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.comand WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.