Champions League Matchday 4 – Luke’s European Football Tips
The Champions League graces our midweek as we head to the fourth round of fixtures. Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, will comprehensively analyse five matches involving British teams in readiness for the games. He will investigate the teams’ performances, current form, past results, and critical team details. We also look at the Champions League odds and spotlight the markets worth considering.
Matchweek, four of the Champions League, signals the end of the first half of the group games, heading to the return legs set to determine those who proceed. The stakes are now high, with qualification to the knockout stage taking centre stage, and the intensity is expected to be a notch higher.
I’ll look at the Celtic match against Atletico Madrid with the intense group F still up for grabs. Newcastle travels to the noisy Signal Iduna Park to face Borussia Dortmund. The defending Champions, Manchester City, have a perfect record in the competition and hope to make it four wins out of four when they face Young Boys. Manchester United have a must-win encounter against FC Copenhagen, while Arsenal will face Lens, looking for revenge and trying to cement their place at the group’s top.
As always, I’ll share the latest odds for those who enjoy midweek Champions League betting.
Champions League – Atlético Madrid v Celtic (Group E)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Atlético | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Lazio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Atletico Madrid is one of five Spanish sides in the Champions League that is still unbeaten after the first round of games in the group stage. One win against Feyenoord (3–2) and two draws against Lazio (1–1), and Celtic (2–2) leaves them comfortable in second place heading to the last three games.
They will host two of the previous three games at the Metropolitano, where they have won the last fifteen competitive games (fourteen in the Spanish League), giving them the upper hand as they work on winning the group. Diego Simeone would ask his side to be ruthless and ambitious to prevent disappointment, as they were knocked out of the group stage last season.
The Madrid side has, however, kept just one clean sheet in the previous eleven victories; thus, it would likely be an open game.
Alvaro Morata has scored in the last three games, including their previous Champions League game against Celtic.
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| D | UCL | 19-09-23 | Lazio 1:1 Atletico Madrid |
| W | UCL | 04-10-23 | Atletico Madrid 3:2 Feyenoord |
| D | UCL | 25-10-23 | Celtic 2:2 Atletico Madrid |
Celtic won their weekend encounter and are now unbeaten in six games (four wins, two draws). Atletico lost over the weekend against Las Palmas. Brendan Rodgers’s side is at the top of the Scottish Premiership and can enjoy some comfort in focusing on Champions League qualification. Celtic sit at the bottom of their group with just one point won in the 2–2 draw against Atletico, losing the other two games.
They now have an arduous task against the Spaniards, failing to do so in the previous seven occasions (three draws, four defeats) to keep their European dream alive. Their travels in the competition are not inspiring either, with five defeats and one draw in the last six, with four conceding multiple goals.
A year ago today, Celtic 4:2 Dundee Utd.
2 goals in the last minute to win it.
Haksabanovic(2), Kyogo and Abada. @Kyogo_Furuhashi pic.twitter.com/sF3WSWIPkW
— Li'l Ze (@LilZe785) November 5, 2023
They will be counting on Kyogo Furuhashi to lead the line as he has been in fine scoring form.
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| L | UCL | 19-09-23 | Feyenoord 2:0 Celtic |
| L | UCL | 04-10-23 | Celtic 1:2 Lazio |
| D | UCL | 25-10-23 | Celtic 2:2 Atletico Madrid |
Selected Betting Odds;
Atletico 6/17 Draw 23/5 Celtic 9/1
BTTS yes 30/29 No 9/10
Over 2.5 11/17
Under 2.5 11/8
Champions League – Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle United (Group F)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Milan | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
The Dortmund victory against Newcastle made Group F up for grabs with four points, the difference between first and last. The German side can now establish itself in a solid position to qualify with a good result against the English side as they sit second in the group. The Signal Iduna Park hasn’t been their fortress in the previous three games since their 1–0 victory at Tyneside, winning one, drawing one, and losing one.
Dortmund has a lousy record against English opposition in their own home, winless in the last four games (losing three, drawing one). Julian Brandt would be an exciting inclusion straight from injury to bring some creativity and an auxiliary source of goals from long-range shooting.
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| L | UCL | 19-09-23 | Paris Saint-Germain 2 : 0 Borussia Dortmund |
| D | UCL | 04-10-23 | Borussia Dortmund 0 : 0 AC Milan |
| W | UCL | 25-10-23 | Newcastle 0 : 1 Borussia Dortmund |
The Magpies won their last two games against top-six opposition in the league, which should be a big morale boost heading to this fixture, knocking Manchester United out of the Carabao Cup and ending Arsenals’ unbeaten run. Newcastle have never lost an away match (winning two, drawing one) against German opposition, which should be a considerable morale boost despite the last competitive trip in the 2006-07 season.
They have an excellent record in the UEFA group stage; in twenty-one games, they have won eleven, drawn seven and lost just three. That record matched up with an unbeaten run in the last five games (two wins, three draws), raising the prospect for the Magpies to get a good result.
Once upon a time, Chelsea wanted to sign Antony Gordon from Everton. pic.twitter.com/o5XP02dELm
— Ferguson 🇬🇭 (@Akeen80) November 5, 2023
Antony Gordon scored the all-important controversial goal against Arsenal and has been refined, showing his creative and clinical aspect of the game.
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| D | UCL | 19-09-23 | AC Milan 0 : 0 Newcastle |
| W | UCL | 04-10-23 | Newcastle 4 : 1 Paris Saint-Germain |
| L | UCL | 25-10-23 | Newcastle 0 : 1 Borussia Dortmund |
Selected Betting Odds;
Callum Wilson (O goals) First goal scorer 11/2 Youssoufa Moukoko (O goals) First goal scorer 8/1
Borrusia Dortmund 15/8 Draw 13/5 Newcastle Utd 6/4
BTTS yes 8/13 No 7/5
Over 2.5 3/4
Under 2.5 13/11
Champions League – Manchester City v Young Boys (Group G)
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| W | UCL | 19-09-23 | Manchester City 3 : 1 FK Crvena Zvezda |
| W | UCL | 04-10-23 | RB Leipzig 1 : 3 Manchester City |
| W | UCL | 25-10-23 | BSC Young Boys 1 : 3 Manchester City |
The defending champions have a perfect record, winning the first three games by a 3 – 1 scoreline and are in a solid position to qualify for the knockout phase. They welcome Young Boys after a confident weekend, thumping Bournemouth 6-1 to move to the top of the Premier League after four consecutive victories. Pep Guardiola’s side is on a twenty-two consecutive home-winning run, including nine straight wins in the Champions League, thus making it hard to make a case for the travelling side. The incredible goals scoring form would mean they can still perform well without Erling Haaland, who has an injury scare. Jeremy Doku is in the ranks, having recorded five goal involvements in their previous match (one goal, four assists).
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| L | UCL | 19-09-23 | BSC Young Boys 1 : 3 RB Leipzig |
| D | UCL | 04-10-23 | FK Crvena Zvezda 2 : 2 BSC Young Boys |
| L | UCL | 25-10-23 | BSC Young Boys 1 : 3 Manchester City |
Young Boys have been impressive since they lost their Champions League encounter against Man City, winning two and drawing one. They top the Swiss Super League but are at the joint bottom of their Champions League group with just one point collected in three games.
Now five points behind second-placed RB Leipzig, Raphael Wicky has to marshal his side to challenge for a result at the Etihad, having done so with Basel managing a 2–1 triumph in 2018. Young Boys have, however, not won a Champions League group stage on the road in the previous seven attempts (five defeats, two draws), including two winless games (one draw, one defeat) at Old Trafford. Meschack Elia has scored four goals, with three coming in a defeat, which raises the prospect for him to be on target even though the odds of them not winning are high.
Selected Betting Odds;
Man City 1/14 draw 14/1 Young boys 40/1 with BetTarget
BTTS Yes 9/15 No 1/2
Over 2.5 2/7
Under 2.5 3/1
Champions League – FC Copenhagen v Manchester United (Group A)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Manchester Utd | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Copenhagen | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
FC Copenhagen has its back against the wall in a must-win encounter against Manchester United, having failed to take three points in the first three (one draw, two defeats). They have delivered exceptional performances, especially in their recent match against midweek visitors, missing a last-gasp penalty to save a point. They have to reward the excellent football with goals, especially if they want to overturn a poor record against English opposition with just one win (five draws, eight defeats) in fourteen games. Extensively, they have failed to score in seven matches but have an incredible home record, winning six, drawing eight and losing just three of the previous seventeen games.
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| D | UCL | 20-09-23 | Galatasaray 2 : 2 FC Copenhagen |
| L | UCL | 03-10-23 | FC Copenhagen 1 : 2 Bayern Munich |
| L | UCL | 24-10-23 | Manchester United 1 : 0 FC Copenhagen |
Manchester United have one win from their previous seven games (two draws, four defeats) and are the only side to have ever lost in this stadium. They have not been playing the most convincing football and only snatched a last-minute winner against Fulham, so it was a huge relief to shift focus on their Champions League qualification.
Erik ten Hag has unsatisfied fans with anything less than a win here against the side that sits at the bottom of the group, which could be a final punch that could condemn them to fail in their qualification quest.
The Dutch manager became the joint fastest to reach half a century of wins and lead the Red Devils to the Champions League, but failure to secure knockout football would be a huge disappointment.
In the League (last 5 seasons)
Kevin De Bruyne : 97 G/A Contributions.
Bruno Fernandes : 97 G/A Contributions.Yet one is considered ‘best in the world’, while the other is hugely disrespected only because he plays for Man United. pic.twitter.com/IaRVcUrbHK
— ' (@TheShowtimeReds) November 7, 2023
In ten games, Bruno Fernandes has not scored a goal in the Champions League in over three years.
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| L | UCL | 20-09-23 | Bayern Munich 4 : 3 Manchester United |
| L | UCL | 03-10-23 | Manchester United 2 : 3 Galatasaray |
| W | UCL | 24-10-23 | Manchester United 1 : 0 FC Copenhagen |
Selected Betting Odds;
Rasmus Hojlund (three goals) First goal scorer 5/1
Orri Steinn Oskarssonc (three goals) First goal scorer 10/1
Copenhagen 15/4 Draw 3/1 Man Utd 4/5
BTTS yes 8/11 No 6/5
Over 2.5 3/4
Under 2.5 15/13
Champions League – Arsenal v Sevilla (Group B)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Lens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Sevilla | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | PSV | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
Arsenal have a Champions League date with Europa League Champions Sevilla, hoping to follow up from a 2–1 win in Spain and a 5–0 thumping of Sheffield United, which showed promise. Two consecutive defeats were knocked out of the Carabao Cup by West Ham (3–1) and a controversial 1–0 defeat by Newcastle, where their unbeaten run was ended, and they failed to score for the first time in the league this campaign.
They must show class and professionalism, especially when setting themselves up mentally ready for another battle, especially after they felt undone over the weekend.
In Europe, they have won just two games, three draws and one defeat from the previous six games against Spanish teams.
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| W | UCL | 20-09-23 | Arsenal 4:0 PSV Eindhoven |
| L | UCL | 03-10-23 | Lens 2:1 Arsenal |
| W | UCL | 24-10-23 | Sevilla 1:2 Arsenal |
Sevilla is unbeaten (one win, two draws) and has been in great form since they lost 2–1 against the Gunners in the reverse fixture. The Europa League winners have not recorded a win in the last fourteen attempts (eight draws, six defeats). Despite their documented defensive frailties, they have conceded just one goal in the previous two games, which is an incredible fate by their standards.
They are three points behind second-place Lens, meaning this will be a must-win encounter to put pressure on the head-to-head match that could determine who could proceed as second in the group.
Sevilla has just one win, two draws, and four defeats in England, including a 3–0 defeat in 2007 when they last travelled to England. Youssef En-Nesyri scored in their last away game and is their top scorer in the league with four goals.
| Result | Competition | Date | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| D | UCL | 20-09-23 | Sevilla 1 : 1 Lens |
| D | UCL | 03-10-23 | PSV Eindhoven 2 : 2 Sevilla |
| L | UCL | 24-10-23 | Sevilla 1 : 2 Arsenal |
Selected Betting Odds;
Arsenal 1/3 Draw 24/5 Sevilla 9/1
BTTS yes 19/20 No 22/23
Over 2.5 4/7 Under 2.5 6/4
The midweek encounters promise to be action-filled entertainment as the qualification stakes keep narrowing with three games left to play. Manchester City have a clear chance of qualifying as group favourites; thus, we anticipate a thorough trashing to maintain their perfect record.
Newcastle and Dortmund can’t afford to lose; therefore, we expect a nervous affair where both sides would be reserved heading forward and could be won by a narrow margin.
Arsenal must win to take complete control of the group; while Manchester United are in a challenging situation with Bayern dominating the group, they have to scramble for second place.
All the games promise to be fascinating as teams have to bring their best game to ensure they don’t get the early ticket home from the most prestigious competition. Proceeding to the knockout phase has monetary value as well; thus, you would understand the urgency and intensity.
Other Champions League fixtures:
- Tuesday 7 November: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Barcelona (17:45)
- Tuesday 7 November: Lazio vs Feyenoord (20:00)
- Tuesday 7 November: Milan vs PSG (20:00)
- Tuesday 7 November: Crvena zvezda vs Leipzig (20:00)
- Tuesday 7 November: Porto vs Antwerp (20:00)
- Wednesday 8 November: Napoli vs Union Berlin (17:45)
- Wednesday 8 November: Real Sociedad vs Benfica (17:45)
- Wednesday 8 November: Bayern vs Galatasaray (20:00)
- Wednesday 8 November: PSV Eindhoven vs Lens (20:00)
- Wednesday 8 November: Real Madrid vs Braga (20:00)
- Wednesday 8 November: Salzburg vs Inter (20:00)
There are also some interesting fixtures not involving British clubs. Bayern vs Galatasaray will be of particular interest as the result of that fixture will directly impact Manchester United’s chances. The bookies feel that one will go the way of the Germans with bet365 offering odds of 1/5.
It should be another great midweek of football and, with my help, hopefully, a few winners on the betting front.
Don’t forget to check out our list of the best football betting sites, as new sign-ups will often qualify for great deals. As always, though, check the terms and conditions when opening a new account.
All stats are taken from sites such as WhoScored.com, and the odds are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate.
