Carabao Cup Betting Preview – Chelsea v Liverpool

by , 22 February 2024

The first cup final of the season takes place on Sunday, with Chelsea taking on Liverpool in the Carabao Cup. Liverpool is the bookies’ favourite, having thrashed Chelsea 4-1 just a few weeks ago, but you can never rule out Chelsea’s expensively assembled team. Join our sports expert, Luke Andrews, as he previews the action and shares the latest Carabao Cup final betting odds.

A football-themed picture with the Carabao Cup logo.

The final of the Carabao Cup is just days away, and either Liverpool or Chelsea will pick up the first major silverware of the season. While the EFL Cup is not as prestigious as winning the Premier League, Champions League or even the FA Cup, there are only three domestic trophies available each season, and winning any trophy, especially at this early stage of the season, gives the winner a psychological boost. A win can also be a backdoor way into Europe, especially useful if a team struggles in the Premier League.

Chelsea are 12/5 to Beat Liverpool
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In this article, I’ll assess both teams’ chances in Sunday’s final, explore how they got there, and share some of the history of the EFL Cup, which has existed since 1961. For football betting fans, I’ll cover the latest Carabao Cup final odds and highlight where there is value in the market.

Carabao Cup Betting – Chelsea’s Road to Wembley

Chelsea has enjoyed success in the League Cup, winning it five times and being on the losing side on four occasions. Since the turn of the century, the Blues have won it three times (2004–05, 2006–07 and 2014–15) and just like their weekend’s opponents, the League Cup has been a vital part of ‘doubles’.

They won the Premier League and League Cup in 2004–05 and 2014–15, the League Cup and European Cup Winners’ Cup in 1997–98 and the domestic double of the FA Cup and League Cup in the 2006–07 season.

Chelsea Match Results
Date Competition Home Team Away Team Result
30-08-23 EFLC Chelsea AFC Wimbledon 2 : 1
27-09-23 EFLC Chelsea Brighton 1 : 0
01-11-23 EFLC Chelsea Blackburn 2 : 0
19-12-23 EFLC Chelsea* Newcastle 1 : 1
09-01-24 EFLC Middlesbrough Chelsea 1 : 0
23-01-24 EFLC Chelsea Middlesbrough 6 : 1

Chelsea started their Carabao Cup journey with a match against AFC Wimbledon, who were more used to playing teams like Grimsby Town, Doncaster Rovers and Wrexham than Champions League winners. The two teams previously met in 2013, when Chelsea won 2-3. In the match, Wimbledon took a surprise lead in the 19th minute when James Tilley scored a penalty with his left foot. Chelsea fought back in the second half with Noni Madueke’s and Enzo Fernández’s goals.

Brighton was next, and a Nicolas Jackson goal early in the second half was the difference between the two. They then played Blackburn, Benoît Badiashile and Raheem Sterling both scored in a 2-0 win. They faced a much more formidable challenge in the quarter-finals with a tie against Newcastle. Callum Wilson gave the visitors the lead just after the quarter of an hour mark before a last-gasp equaliser by Mykhailo Mudryk took the game to penalties. Chelsea only needed to score four penalties as Newcastle missed two of theirs.

A shock appeared on the cards in the semi-final when Championship Middlesbrough won 1-0 in the first leg. However, in the second leg, Chelsea was ruthless, hammering their opponents 6-1 to secure their spot in the final.

Carabao Cup Betting – Liverpool’s Road to Wembley

While fans of some teams dismiss the EFL Cup, dubbing it the ‘Mickey Mouse Cup’, Liverpool take this competition seriously and have won it more times than any other club, most recently in the 2021-22 season, when ironically they beat this weekend’s opponents, Chelsea, 11-10 on penalties after a goalless draw in normal time. It was a significant win as it was the first leg of a double as they also picked up the FA Cup later in the season.

The League Cup has also featured in historic trebles for the Reds, with the League, League Cup and European Cup in the 1983–84 season and the FA Cup, League Cup and UEFA Cup in 2000–01.

Liverpool Match Results
Date Competition Home Team Away Team Result
27-09-23 EFLC Liverpool Leicester 3 : 1
01-11-23 EFLC Bournemouth Liverpool 1 : 2
20-12-23 EFLC Liverpool West Ham 5 : 1
10-01-24 EFLC Liverpool Fulham 2 : 1
24-01-24 EFLC Fulham Liverpool 1 : 1

In September, Liverpool’s journey in this year’s Carabao Cup started with a tricky tie against former Premier League champions Leicester City at Anfield. While the Foxes have dropped into the Championship, they have been in excellent form this campaign and currently lead the Championship table with a gap of eight points over Leeds United. Kasey McAteer gave the visitors an early lead with a 3rd-minute goal, but second-half goals from Cody Gakpo, Dominik Szoboszlai and Diogo Jota sealed the win.

A 2-1 win over Premier League Bournemouth was next for Liverpool. Gakpo opened the scoring after 31 minutes, but the tie was level just after the hour mark when the impressive Justin Kluivert made it 1-1. Darwin Núñez scored the winner with twenty minutes left to play. The result was a relief for Liverpool as in the past three seasons, The Reds have exited the competition at the fourth round twice (2020/21 and 2022/23), surpassed only by Everton (21 times) and Southampton (17 times) for the most eliminations at this stage in the tournament’s history.

No one can accuse Liverpool of having an easy run in this year’s competition, and they faced another Premier League team, West Ham United, in the next round. The Hammers had enjoyed European success in the previous season but offered little resistance, with Curtis Jones claiming a brace in a routine 5-1 win.

A few days after beating Arsenal in the FA Cup, Liverpool played Fulham in the first leg of the semi-final.

William gave the visitors an early lead, but Jones and Gakpo continued their Carabao Cup scoring streak to seal the win.

In the return leg at Craven Cottage, Luis Diaz scored after 11 minutes, but Issa Diop scored a goal with 14 minutes remaining to ensure a nervous finish. Liverpool held on to reach the final.

Carabao Cup Betting – Chelsea v Liverpool Betting Odds

Any football final in England, especially one featuring two of England’s most famous clubs, attracts plenty of betting interest. In this next section, I’ll explore some of the markets available at the best UK betting sites.

Carabao Cup Betting – Chelsea v Liverpool Full-Time Result

Match Odds
Outcome Odds
Chelsea Win 12/5
Draw 5/2
Liverpool Win 21/20

It’s really not a surprise to see Liverpool as the clear favourite with bet365. The two teams last met on the last day of January, and Liverpool ran riot in a 4-1 victory with four goals from four different goalscorers (Diogo Jota, Conor Bradley, Dominik Szoboszlai and Luis Díaz). Chelsea’s goal, which would prove to be mere consolation, was scored by Christopher Nkunku.

Liverpool have only suffered one defeat in 14 (Arsenal 3-1), whereas Chelsea have lost two in five (Liverpool and Wolves).

However, Chelsea did have an impressive 3-1 win away at high-flying Aston Villa and took a point away from the Etihad against Manchester City last weekend, so it might not be as straightforward as it seems.

As finals tend to be tight affairs, especially between ‘big’ clubs, the 5/2 on offer for the draw is tempting. On the Premier League season’s first day, these teams faced off at Stamford Bridge, ending in a 1-1 tie, with both sides taking a point each.

Carabao Cup Betting – Chelsea v Liverpool Total Goals Over/Under Betting

Total Goals Over/Under Odds
Goal Line Over Under
1.5 2/11 31/10
2.5 8/13 23/20
3.5 6/4 4/9
4.5 13/4 1/6
5.5 15/2 1/20

This season, Chelsea’s goal-scoring prowess and defensive record paint a vivid picture of their performance on the pitch. With a total of 42 goals scored across all competitions, the Blues have demonstrated a consistent ability to find the back of the net, averaging 1.68 goals per match. This offensive output is slightly higher away from home, with 22 goals, compared to 20 goals at Stamford Bridge, indicating a marginal but notable adaptability in their attacking approach on the road.

Defensively, Chelsea has conceded 41 goals, with a slightly higher vulnerability in away matches (23 goals conceded) than at home (18 goals conceded). This results in an average of 1.64 goals conceded per match, highlighting areas for potential improvement in their defensive solidity. The balance between goals scored and conceded brings the average to 3.32 goals per game, suggesting that Chelsea’s matches are often high-scoring affairs.

This season, Liverpool’s goal-scoring and defensive statistics starkly contrast with Chelsea’s, showcasing the Reds’ formidable attack and robust defence. Liverpool has netted a remarkable 59 goals in all competitions, averaging 2.36 goals per match. Their attacking prowess is particularly pronounced at home, with 33 goals scored at Anfield, translating to an impressive average of 2.75 goals per home match. The team has also been influential away from home, scoring 26 goals at an average of 2.00 per match.

On the defensive front, Liverpool has been significantly more solid than Chelsea, conceding only 24 goals across all competitions. This results in an average of 0.96 goals conceded per match, with a tighter defence at home (0.83 goals conceded per match) compared to away matches (1.08 goals conceded per match). This defensive solidity complements their offensive output, contributing to an average of 3.32 goals per game in Liverpool matches, identical to Chelsea’s average.

The statistics further illustrate Liverpool’s consistency in high-scoring games, with 96% of their matches featuring over 1.5 goals. The proportion of Liverpool’s matches with over 2.5 goals is 68%, surpassing the Premier League average and indicating a higher likelihood of three or more goals being scored in their games than Chelsea.

“With the attacking talent on show for both sides, it seems almost inevitable that there will be goals, and possibly quite a few of them. Chelsea often gifts goals, and Liverpool have conceded in their last six fixtures. Therefore, I’ll be backing over 2.5 goals at 8/13. A 2-2 draw wouldn’t be a huge surprise. That is priced at a healthy 11/1.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

In terms of match beginnings, Liverpool matches are slightly more likely to start with early goals, with 76% of their games seeing at least one goal by halftime. The team also demonstrates a higher propensity for matches with over 1.5 goals by halftime (48%), suggesting that Liverpool’s games start more aggressively than Chelsea’s.

Carabao Cup Betting – Chelsea v Liverpool – Last Goalscorer

A market that has seen a surge in popularity in the last few years is the last goalscorer market. While predicting the first goalscorer has been part of a bettor’s staple diet for years, predicting the last goalscorer is, in many ways, more difficult for several reasons.

Often, a player is substituted during a game. Therefore, the eleven players on each side will almost certainly not be the eleven that will finish a match. So, it often makes sense to look at players who will not start but could be introduced later to make an impact. An ageing player is likely to be taken off, as is a player who has recently returned from injury.

Goalscorer Odds
Player Odds Player Odds Player Odds
Salah, M 4/1 Diaz, Luis 7/1 Mudryk, M 10/1
Nkunku, C 11/2 Washington, D 15/2 No GoalScorer 11/1
Darwin Nunez 11/2 Gordon, Kaide 15/2 Szoboszlai, Dominik 12/1
Palmer, Cole 6/1 Sterling, R 8/1 Elliott, H 12/1
Gakpo, C 6/1 Madueke, N 9/1 Castledine, L 12/1
Jackson, Nicolas 13/2 Chukwuemeka, C 14/1 Jones, Curtis 12/1
Clark, Bobby 14/1 Endo, W 16/1 Gallagher, Conor 14/1
Fernandez, Enzo Jeremias 14/1 Mac Allister, A 16/1 Gravenberch, R 14/1
McConnell, James 16/1 Bradley, Conor 18/1 van Dijk, V 18/1
Chilwell, B 22/1 Silva, Thiago 22/1 Konate, I 25/1
Caicedo, Moises 25/1 Gomez, Joseph 28/1 Colwill, L 28/1
Chalobah, T 28/1 Quansah, J 28/1 Disasi, A 28/1
Tsimikas, K 28/1 Robertson, Andrew 28/1 Williams, Dylan 33/1
Gusto, M 33/1 Samuels-Smith, Ishe 40/1

Although Salah leads the last goalscorer betting, the Egyptian was injured during the recent Africa Cup of Nations, so unless the game is tied late on, I’d expect his playing time could be limited. Wataru Endō might be a good choice if Klopp wants defensive cover late on.

For Chelsea, Enzo Fernández could be a good choice. Although he is likely to be a starter, the 23-year-old has played 89 minutes or more in nine of the last ten games he has featured in. The Argentian has scored nine goals in all competitions this season.

Carabao Cup Betting – Chelsea v Liverpool – Will a Team Manage to Score in Both Halves?

As I mentioned earlier, both teams have plenty of attacking options, meaning a market to consider is whether a team will score in both halves of the game.

Score In Both Halves Odds
Team Odds
Chelsea 14/5
Liverpool 7/4

Chelsea has longer odds to score in both halves. Based on their league results (due to the larger sample size), Chelsea scored 67% at home and 62% away in the first half (the final is at Wembley). It is a similar pattern in the 2nd half, with 58% (home) and 46% (away). They score in both halves in 50% of their home games but only 23% away from Stamford Bridge.

Liverpool’s scoring rates are more formidable. At home, they score in 69% (1st half) and 85% (2nd half). For away fixtures, it drops to 54% and 69%.

Chelsea conceded in both halves in 25% (home) and 31% (away). Liverpool’s conceding rate for both halves is much lower, 8% at home and 23% away.

Previous Carabao Cup Winners 1960 – 2023

Here is a full breakdown of all the League Cup finals since 1960;

Year Winner Runner-Up Score
1960-61 Aston Villa Rotherham United 0-2 and 3-0 AET
1961-62 Norwich City Rochdale 3-0 and 1-0
1962-63 Birmingham City Aston Villa 3-1 and 0-0
1963-64 Leicester City Stoke City 1-1 and 3-2
1964-65 Chelsea Leicester City 3-2 and 0-0
1965-66 West Bromwich Albion West Ham United 1-2 and 4-1
1966-67 Queens Park Rangers West Bromwich Albion 3-2
1967-68 Leeds United Arsenal 1-0
1968-69 Swindon Town Arsenal 3-1 AET
1969-70 Manchester City West Bromwich Albion 2-1 AET
1970-71 Tottenham Hotspur Aston Villa 2-0
1971-72 Stoke City Chelsea 2-1
1972-73 Tottenham Hotspur Norwich City 1-0
1973-74 Wolverhampton Wanderers Manchester City 2-1
1974-75 Aston Villa Norwich City 1-0
1975-76 Manchester City Newcastle United 2-1
1976-77 Aston Villa Everton 0-0 1-1 AET 3-2 AET
1977-78 Nottingham Forest Liverpool 0-0 AET 1-0
1978-79 Nottingham Forest Southampton 3-2
1979-80 Wolverhampton Wanderers Nottingham Forest 1-0
1980-81 Liverpool West Ham United 1-1 AET, 2-1
1981-82 Liverpool Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 AET
1982-83 Liverpool Manchester United 2-1 AET
1983-84 Liverpool Everton 1-0
1984-85 Norwich City Sunderland 1-0
1985-86 Oxford United Queens Park Rangers 3-0
1986-87 Arsenal Liverpool 2-1
1987-88 Luton Town Arsenal 3-2
1988-89 Nottingham Forest Luton Town 3-1
1989-90 Nottingham Forest Oldham Athletic 1-0
1990-91 Sheffield Wednesday Manchester United 1-0
1991-92 Manchester United Nottingham Forest 1-0
1992-93 Arsenal Sheffield Wednesday 2-1
1993-94 Aston Villa Manchester United 3-1
1994-95 Liverpool Bolton Wanderers 2-1
1995-96 Aston Villa Leeds United 3-0
1996-97 Leicester City Middlesbrough 1-1 AET, 1-0 replay
1997-98 Chelsea Middlesbrough 2-0
1998-99 Tottenham Hotspur Leicester City 1-0
1999-00 Leicester City Tranmere Rovers 2-1
2000-01 Liverpool Birmingham City 1-1 AET 5-4 penalties
2001-02 Blackburn Rovers Tottenham Hotspur 2-1
2002-03 Liverpool Manchester United 2-0
2003-04 Middlesbrough Bolton Wanderers 2-1
2004-05 Chelsea Liverpool 3-2 AET
2005-06 Manchester United Wigan Athletic 4-0
2006-07 Chelsea Arsenal 2-1
2007-08 Tottenham Hotspur Chelsea 2-1 AET
2008-09 Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur 0-0 AET, 4-1 penalties
2009-10 Manchester United Aston Villa 2-1
2010-11 Birmingham City Arsenal 2-1
2011-12 Liverpool Cardiff City 2-2 AET, 3-2 penalties
2012-13 Swansea City Bradford City 5-0
2013-14 Manchester City Sunderland 3-1
2014-15 Chelsea Tottenham Hotspur 2-0
2015-16 Manchester City Liverpool 1-1 AET, 3-1 penalties
2016-17 Manchester United Southampton 3-2
2017-18 Manchester City Arsenal 3-0
2018-19 Manchester City Chelsea 0-0 AET, 4-3 penalties
2019-20 Manchester City Aston Villa 2-1
2020-21 Manchester City Tottenham Hotspur 1-0
2021-22 Liverpool Chelsea 0-0 AET, 11-10 penalties
2022-23 Manchester United Newcastle United 2-0

Whoever wins on Sunday will enhance their position in the list of the most successful teams participating in the League Cup.

League Cup Winners
Team Winners Runners-up Years won Years runners-up
Liverpool 9 4 1980–81, 1981–82, 1982–83, 1983–84, 1994–95, 2000–01, 2002–03, 2011–12, 2021–22 1977–78, 1986–87, 2004–05, 2015–16
Manchester City 8 1 1969–70, 1975–76, 2013–14, 2015–16, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2019–20, 2020–21 1973–74
Manchester United 6 4 1991–92, 2005–06, 2008–09, 2009–10, 2016–17, 2022–23 1982–83, 1990–91, 1993–94, 2002–03
Aston Villa 5 4 1960–61, 1974–75, 1976–77, 1993–94, 1995–96 1962–63, 1970–71, 2009–10, 2019–20
Chelsea 5 4 1964–65, 1997–98, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2014–15 1971–72, 2007–08, 2018–19, 2021–22
Tottenham Hotspur 4 5 1970–71, 1972–73, 1998–99, 2007–08 1981–82, 2001–02, 2008–09, 2014–15, 2020–21
Nottingham Forest 4 2 1977–78, 1978–79, 1988–89, 1989–90 1979–80, 1991–92
Leicester City 3 2 1963–64, 1996–97, 1999–2000 1964–65, 1998–99
Arsenal 2 6 1986–87, 1992–93 1967–68, 1968–69, 1987–88, 2006–07, 2010–11, 2017–18
Norwich City 2 2 1961–62, 1984–85 1972–73, 1974–75

A win for Liverpool will take them to ten victories, two ahead of the second-best team, Manchester City. A win for Chelsea will see them go clear of Aston Villa and level with Manchester United in third place.

The showdown between Chelsea and Liverpool is set for Sunday, February 25, 2024. Initially planned for a 4:30 pm start, the Metropolitan Police have requested the kick-off time be moved to 3 pm GMT. Fans can catch the action live on Sky Sports Main Event and Football, with the pre-game coverage beginning at 2 pm.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.

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