Best Bets for Thursday’s Premier League Darts Fixture
The 2023 Cazoo Premier League has become the Michael van Gerwen (MVG) and Price show. The duo has dominated the roadshow during the past five weeks, exclusively taking every final since Week 4 (in Dublin) during February. They have also met in a pair of finals, taking one apiece.
Gerwyn Price and Michael van Gerwen have won six 2023 Premier League nightly finals between them. ©Taylor Lanning/PDC
At the weekend, in the quarter-finals of the European Darts Open, they clashed again. Price prevailed on this occasion and went on to take his seventh PDC European Tour title by defeating Dirk van Duijvenbode in the final of the event staged in Leverkusen, Germany.
Darts is a form game. And while the sport is currently dominated by Price and MVG, world number two, Peter Wright is languishing. Eight weeks of Premier League action have seen him win just one match. On Saturday, he lost his first and only match in the European Darts Open to the little-known Ricardo Pietreczko.
The Mishmash Can Move in Germany
In truth, behind the big two in the Premier League standings is a mishmash of inconsistent performers and performances. It is a statement confirmed by Nathan Aspinall’s position in third. The 31-year-old has not won a nightly final and has only appeared in one decider. He has also lost more matches than he has won.
Nevertheless, Chris Doby and Michael Smith – both boasting a win and an additional final appearance – sit below Aspinall in the standings. As players receive two points for a semi-final finish, three points for a defeat in a final, and five points for a nightly final victory, there could be some movement amongst the mid-pack after Thursday night’s action in Berlin.
Dimitri Van den Burgh vs Michael Smith
Much was expected from Smith entering the 2023 Premier League. He had just placed the world crown on his head and was oozing confidence. Things started brightly, but three first-round eliminations from his past four Premier League appearances indicate he is now struggling.
On a strict interpretation of recent Premier League results, Smith’s 8/15 match odds are not justified. It is tempting to go for a Van den Burgh victory with a handicap start, but enhanced odds of 10/11 about a match that lasts 9.5-plus legs is the better bet.
Nathan Aspinall vs Chris Dobey
Aspinall has done well to win his first match in six of the eight Premier League fixtures. Conversely, Dobey has lost his opener five times. This pair is one apiece in their two 2023 Premier League meetings. The match odds – Aspinall is the marginal favorite at 4/5 – correctly show this is a difficult game to call.
But the 11/8 odds offered by the best darts betting sites on Aspinall claiming the most match 180s is a mistake. He has recorded 45 180s in the competition to date, and Dobey has bagged 33. Admittedly Aspinall has played 140 legs, whereas Dobey has contested 122. Nevertheless, the figures clearly indicate Aspinall is the winner of this proposition based on the stats.
Jonny Clayton vs MVG
MVG has played and beaten Clayton three times in the 2023 Premier League. And they have been real punishments featuring 6-2 and 6-3 scorelines. With Clayton losing his last three Premier League matches and his first-round match in Saturday’s European Darts Open (a 3-6 defeat to Ryan Meikle), even 12/5 match odds on an unlikely victory for the Welshman hold no appeal.
On the basis this match will go to form and seeking attractive odds, the bet suggestion is a fourth comprehensive defeat for Clayton. MVG can be backed at 11/10 with the UK’s best betting sites to overcome a 2.5-leg deficit meaning the 1/3 match favorite needs to win by a 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, or 6-3 scoreline. Clayton has lost three of his last four Premier League matches by three or more legs.
Gerwyn Price vs Peter Wright
Price has won back-to-back Cazoo Premier League nights in Nottingham and Newcastle in the past two weeks. And he swept aside all rivals in Germany last weekend with some huge averages: 109 against Krzysztof Ratajski, 110 against Michael Smith, 106 when dispatching MVG, and 100 against Danny Noppert.
Against Peter Wright, all looks good for a seventh successive match win in the 2023 Premier League. Price may break Wright’s spirit early. If that is the case, Wright could struggle to string together some high scores. The theory leads us to bet365 and its market on Wright’s three-dart match average.
Wright’s average across the 2023 Premier League is 93.7, and he recorded 92.8 in his one encounter with Price three weeks ago. These figures suggest the 5/6 on offer about Wright averaging lower than 94.5 is the best bet in this showdown.
Thursday’s Best Darts Bets
- Dimitri Van den Burgh vs Michael Smith to feature 9.5-plus legs 10/11
- Nathan Aspinall to register the most match 180s (vs Chris Dobey) 11/8
- Michael van Gerwen (-2.5 legs) to beat Jonny Clayton 11/10
- Peter Wright match average under 94.5 5/6
