Form Horse Michael Van Gerwen Could Cost Bookmakers Dear
If the results at Thursday’s Cheltenham meeting go the way of the punters, night 7 of Dart’s Premier League could enjoy record-breaking betting turnover. Looking only at his recent Premier League record of nine consecutive victories – taking nightly finals in Dublin, Exeter, and Liverpool – enthusiastic novice darts punters could shovel fortunes on Michael van Gerwen.
Michael Smith and Michael van Gerwen could meet in the semi-final stages of Thursday’s Premier League fixture in Nottingham. ©Sinon O’Connor/PDC
The Dutchman is 2/5 to beat his first-round rival, Peter Wright, and 2/1 to win an additional two matches and land this week’s event in Nottingham. Michael Smith is drawn to potentially meet van Gerwen in the second round. Nevertheless, the reigning world champion is only 7/2 to win his second nightly final of 2023.
Read our thoughts on how the action – broadcast live on Sky Sports from 7 pm – may unfold and take a look at some of the night’s best betting opportunities…
Dimitri van den Bergh vs Nathan Aspinall
There have been six wins and six league losses for Aspinall. Dimitri has won four of his ten matches. Both players have appeared in just one nightly final, and neither has collected a trophy. Their one 2023 Premier League meeting resulted in a 6-1 victory for Dimitri four weeks ago.
The UK’s darts betting sites can barely separate this pair – 9/10 is available on both players – and there is no value in the match-winner market. But, bet365 could have made a mistake with its ‘highest checkout’ odds. 5/6 is on offer for either player. Van den Burgh is the choice here. The Belgian has a superior checkout ratio to his rival, landing 46.4 percent of his finishes as opposed to Aspinall’s 33.7 percent.
Best Bet: Dimitri van den Bergh to record the highest match checkout. 5/6
Jonny Clayton vs Gerwyn Price
Only a single point separates this pair on league standings, albeit Price has won a nightly final, whereas Clayton has not. Clayton has shown better form in recent weeks, and the duo is yet to meet in this year’s Premier League. Across all Premier League stats, there is nothing between these friends and countrymen. It makes Clayton – industry top-priced 5/4 at Coral – the obvious choice.
However, as neither player has recorded a checkout higher than 120 during the competition, the suggestion is to sell the spread (to go low) on the highest checkout of the match. The line is set at 114.5. 5/6 is the price offered by the best darts betting sites.
Best Bet: Highest match checkout under 114.5. 5/6
Peter Wright vs Michael van Gerwen
Wright, with just one match win in six weeks, tackles the white-hot Michael van Gerwen (MVG) in what appears a mismatch. MVG has won seven of the last eight meetings between the two. He has also won seven consecutive Premier League showdowns against the regressive Peter Wright.
Peter Wright finally has that winning feeling! ✨
3 missed match darts for Gerwyn Price ❌ pic.twitter.com/1GKLeC1Rk7
— Sky Sports Darts (@SkySportsDarts) March 9, 2023
Are we looking at a whitewash? Probably not, there has not been one in this year’s competition so far. However, 6-1 was the scoreline when MVG beat Wright in three of their four most recent Premier League clashes. On Thursday, a 6-1 MVG victory can and should be backed at 8/1. Top that up with some of Betfred’s 11/2 about a 6-2 verdict for the Dutchman.
Best Bet: 6-1 and 6-2 correct score match wins for MVG. 8/1 & 11/2
Chris Dobey vs Michael Smith
Dobey is on a sequence of five first-round losses. Smith made last week’s final (beaten 4-6 by MVG) and won the final on night three in Glasgow. Resultantly, Smith is 4/9 to win this one. He cannot be opposed or backed at those odds.
Interestingly, Smith is not smashing in the 180s with the consistency that he once did. On a ratio of games played, Dobey has been considerably more successful with his maximums. His average is three per match and one in every 3.16 legs. These figures suggest he should not be 13/8 to claim the most match 180s – and the odds make this proposition the best bet of the night.
Best Bet: Dobey to register the most match 180s. 13/8
