A Tongue in Cheek Preview of Sunday’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
The tragically boring 2023 Formula 1 season will draw to a tame close in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. Cars, drivers, mechanics, and tonnes of freight have been flown from Las Vegas, the scene of the latest predictable contest masquerading as a race, to the capital of the United Arab Emirates via Los Angeles. The journey is more than 8,700 miles – impressive for a sport that says it will be carbon-neutral by 2030.
Vegas is a neon-lit Sodom and Gomorrah nestled in the middle of an arid desert. Abu Dhabi is Abu Dhabi, and its Yas Marina Circuit is a shining example of what $1.3 billion can buy you. If you had that kind of money to splash out, surely you would create a track which complements breathtaking neighbouring facilities such as its Ferrari-branded theme park.
Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina: Nice circuit, bad track. ©GettyImages
Alas, track designer Herman Tilke never got the memo. His creation – an ugly duckling compared to other tracks he has sketched on a blank drawing board – has striking similarities to Monaco, Singapore, the now-defunct Valencia and Hungary.
Spot the theme here? Slow corners, lots of them, means overtaking is more impossible than improbable, and Yas Marina Circuit is no different. The point is, would you build a luxury mansion that has a landfill for a view?
Digging up Pole Setters From the Formbook
In 2007, the year 14,000 workers started work on the venue, it was calculated that each of Abu Dhabi’s 420,000 citizens had an average net worth of $17 million. So, a quick whip-around this weekend could put enough Dirhams into the hat to allow for some much-needed meaningful changes to the track – once the diggers have taken half of it away.
The proof of this track’s shortcomings is in the formbook. The last eight Abu Dhabi Grand Prix winners started the race from pole position. The average race-winning distance is almost ten seconds. Only two of the previous ten Abu Dhabi Grand Prix required safety car intervention.
In mitigation, several changes, not upgrades, were made to the track layout ahead of the 2021 race, changing the lap length from 5.554 kilometres to 5.281 kilometres. Last year’s race – which might prove to be an anomaly – did see 64 overtakes by drivers using their DRS (drag reduction system).
Your final track guide of the 2023 season 🇦🇪
Who do you think will come out on top in Abu Dhabi? 💭 pic.twitter.com/c08nQYYjSD
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) November 23, 2023
Regardless, it is massively unlikely the pole setter will be passed on track. The best Formula 1 betting sites quote Max Verstappen on 4/7 to be the fastest qualifier and 4/6 that the pole setter will win the race.
Who Will Take the Distant Second?
While cars and drivers may be strung out like washing on a line – only three drivers finished within 30 seconds of last year’s race winner, and just 11 cars ended the race on the lead lap – there should be an exciting battle between Mercedes and Ferrari for second place in the Constructors Championship.
Four points separate the two teams. Mercedes currently sits second, and bet365 quotes the German squad on even money to maintain its position. Better is expected of Ferrari; the Italian team is 5/6 to surpass its rivals.
Mercedes’s advantage was cut dramatically at last weekend’s Las Vegas Grand Prix, where Ferrari claimed second and sixth (for 26 points), and Mercedes, with a seventh and eighth, earned just 10 points.
Reflecting on that race, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff said earlier this week: “On track for us, it was a case of what could have been. The pace of the car was strong. Without the numerous incidents of contact, both Lewis and George would have been challenging for the podium. But that’s a case of could have, would have, should have.”
Mercedes Best – No Comparison
It is best to bow to Wolff’s wisdom. But turn to past results for confirmation that Mercedes should have the better race car this weekend. Recall those comparisons with Hungary, Singapore and Monaco? The formbook shows the Mercedes cars finished ahead of the Ferrari drivers five times in these contests during 2023.
Abu Dhabi does not require the high downforce levels those tracks demand. A more balanced setup is needed here, akin to the demands of Silverstone and the US Grand Prix. Once again, Mercedes outshone Ferrari in these contests during the current campaign.
THE RACE FOR SECOND PLACE 🥈
Mercedes 🆚 Ferrari
Who do you think will finish on top in Abu Dhabi? 🇦🇪 pic.twitter.com/xu33wF1Kmt
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) November 23, 2023
There is strong reason to expect Mercedes will maintain its second place in the Constructors Championship. Regarding strategic decisions, Ferrari is famous for making mistakes when the pressure is on. There is a strong possibility the strategist clad in red will overplay their hand on Sunday.
Fernando Figures Better Than the Odds Suggest
The best bet has to be Mercedes collectively taking more points than Ferrari with the advantage of three-and-a-half points on the handicap (in the event of equal points, Ferrari will be awarded second thanks to winning the Singapore Grand Prix) in Sunday’s race.
Alternatively, motorsport betting sites 2/1 offer on Fernando Alonso finishing in the top six also appears a good bet. Eight podium finishes in 2023 – most recently an excellent third in Brazil – underlines that the ageing Spaniard still has enormous talent. Add his additional four top-six finishes, and stats alone confirm the odds are very generous.
