The Race for Euro 2024 Qualification: How Things Stand

by Luke Andrews, 27 October 2023

Domestic football may have restarted after the international break. However, there is still plenty of interest in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, as the next round of fixtures will decide who heads to Germany. While teams such as England, Scotland and Portugal have already qualified, other teams like Italy face some do-or-die fixtures. Join me as I examine the groups and share the latest Euro 2024 betting odds.

Europe is the hub of football development, housing the leading leagues, clubs, and tournaments worldwide. The European Championship tournament is one of the most competitive football competitions. It brings together the elite teams of Europe and the best talents that ply their trade across the globe professionally to contest for the revered title of the European champions.

In this article, I’ll highlight the UEFA Euro qualification phase, looking at the qualified teams, the group tables and the potential shifts that can happen in the last round of games. I’ll also review the significant fixtures that could influence the standings and then analyse the teams that could perform well and win the tournament. I’ll also present the latest odds from one of the best bookmakers for football betting, bet365.

Euro 2024 Qualifying – How Things Stand

With the race to qualify for Euro 2024 reaching the final lap, I’ll take this opportunity to assess all the groups and who will likely succeed. It has been a thrilling qualifying campaign with good performances from the traditional football powerhouses in Europe, such as England, Spain and France, but also from dark horses like Albania and Hungary.

Euro 2024 Qualifying Group A: Scotland, Spain, Cyprus, Georgia, Norway

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances:

Spain has leapfrogged Scotland at the top of Euro Qualifiers Group A, paving the way for an exciting tussle between the two sides for group supremacy in the final two matches. La Roja are better-rounded than their opponents and will have easier ties than Scotland in the run-in.

Scotland started the campaign in style, beating both Spain and Norway and topped the group for a large part of qualification before a controversial defeat by Spain saw them drop to second. Their top goal scorer is a surprise in Scot McTominay. The 26-year-old thought he had opened the scoring in the recent 2-0 defeat against Scotland, but his well-taken freekick was ruled out for an obstruction.

Scotland has already qualified, meaning the pressure is off them for the remaining fixtures.

Norway has individual stars like the captain Martin Odegaard, and last season’s top scorer in the Premier League, Erling Haaland. However, the team has not been able to perform collectively, especially in a crucial key match against Spain. Despite having a team with individual brilliance, their ambitions of making it to the 2024 Euros now rely on the playoffs, with them being threatened to miss a sixth straight European tournament.

Georgia can rise to third if it produces superior results against Norway in the remaining two games, hunting one of the final three slots on offer for the best third-placed teams.

Cyprus has not fared well as they have lost all but seven games and have conceded twenty-five goals. It has been far from enjoyable for them over the whole qualification phase.

Euro 2024 Qualifying Group B: France, Netherlands, Greece, Republic of Ireland

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances:

In what was the most formidable group of the Euro 2024 qualifiers, bearing two of the best sides in the competition, France and Netherlands.

The French have already qualified as group winners thanks to a perfect qualification campaign.

The first France player to score two headers in one game since 1998 🇫🇷

Benjamin Pavard 💪#EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/8p3HOFniqo

— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) October 26, 2023

The Netherlands have the comfort of a game in hand against Greece, whom they are tied on points with. The Dutch scored a last-minute penalty and need one more victory against Ireland to secure a place in Germany as the group’s runners-up.

Ireland could benefit from the UEFA weighed system that, if results go their way in the other games, could see them qualify for the playoffs. Both wins came against the generous Gibraltar, who lost all their six games and are yet to score a goal in the entire qualification campaign.

Euro 2024 Qualifying Group C: England, Italy, North Macedonia, Ukraine

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances:

England, the Euro 2020 finalists, have cemented their place at the top of Group C with a convincing campaign. They beat Italy in their most recent match, a repeat of the Euro 2020 finals that the Three Lions lost, but had the final laugh.

The English have dropped points once in their six games, drawing 1 – 1 against Ukraine.

Italy must fight for second place against Ukraine ahead of their head-to-head encounter in the final group game set for 20th November. The Azzurri are guaranteed a place in the playoffs if they settle for third place, but a game in hand means they are favourites for second place.

North Macedonia will play a part in determining the group’s fate as they are set to play Italy, while Malta has lost all their seven games. The entertaining encounters will be around Italy and Ukraine.

Group C has been one of the most entertaining in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, with England expected to be one of the favourites in Germany as they ignite their hunt for a first-ever European title.

Euro 2024 Qualifying Group D: Turkey, Wales, Armenia, Croatia, Latvia

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances:

Turkey has secured qualification from the Euro 2024 qualifiers Group D, with the remaining battle being for who finishes second.

Wales and Croatia are tied on ten points, with Armenia within reach for qualification if they get a good result in the final two games.

Latvia has been eliminated from contention, having earned just three points so far. Despite this, they still have a role to play in their final match against Croatia, which could impact Armenia’s chances of qualifying.

Wales have a great chance as they play already qualified Turkey and could take their feet off the peddle in their next match. The group is still very open, with Croatia having a slot in the playoffs if they finish third, meaning Wales has everything to fight for in the next round of games to ensure they finish second.

Group E: Albania, Czech Republic, Poland, Moldova, Faroe Islands

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances:

Albania surprised everyone to top Euro 2024 qualifiers group E ahead of some European giants such as the Czech Republic and Poland. They sit top but are yet to qualify, with four points between them and Moldova in position four, meaning there is still all to play for in the group with two games yet to be played.

THREAD: 🇦🇱 Albania golazos in #EURO2024 qualifying 🔥 @FSHForg

1. Jasir Asani vs Poland 🤯 pic.twitter.com/JqOdWl50Qk

— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) September 22, 2023

The Czech Republic is in second place, while Lewandoski’s Poland is in a bad place, sitting third, having played one more game than the other three teams fighting for direct qualification.

Albania beat Poland 2 – 0 and the Czech Republic 3 – 0 to storm to the top and would have to avoid a defeat in the next two games against Moldova and against the group bottlers Faroe Island, who have just one point.

The Czech Republic will face Poland and Moldova in a do-or-die encounter, and a win here could set them up comfortably to qualify as the runners-up in the group. The final two games in this group for each side will feel like a cup final.

Group F: Austria, Belgium, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Estonia

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances:

Belgium and Austria are already qualifying for the Euro 2024 qualifiers Group F.

Belgium beat Austria 3 – 2 in the last match to take control of the group, having dropped points in the return leg of the same fixture. Belgium took on Azerbaijan in the final match, while Austria took on the bottom-of-the-group Estonia in a match that would settle the group, determining who would finish first.

Sweden has had a disappointing campaign with just seven points in six games, having been second favourites for qualification when the draw was made. They have to wait to see if they will make the playoffs.

Estonia has collected just one point in the campaign, while Azerbaijan has four, with their fate already decided.

Group G: Hungary, Serbia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances

The Euro Qualifiers Group G is still wide open, just as Group E, with Hungary, Serbia, and Montenegro all fighting for a ticket to Germany.

Hungary tops the group with a game in hand and needs just a draw against third-place Montenegro to qualify.

Serbia will hope the group leaders do them a favour by beating Montenegro to end any chance of them overtaking them as they have already played one more game, and with five points between them, then everything is possible.

Serbia will play bottom-of-the-group Bulgaria in the final match, determining their qualification. Serbia boasts a great attack, with Alexandre Mitrovic leading the line.

Lithuania is not within reach of qualification with just six points, and Bulgaria is without a win in the qualifiers, so all the good drama will be in the top three.

It will be interesting to see if Montenegro can pull a late surprise. Still, it looks implausible, especially against the in-form Hungary, who will be a force to be reckoned with in Germany, given the displays we have seen.

Group H: Slovenia, Denmark, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances

Slovenia and Denmark are tied at the top of Euro 2024 qualifiers group H on nineteen points, with Slovenia staying ahead with just a single goal difference advantage. The two will have a deciding encounter on match day 9 when they face off to determine who will qualify as the leaders.

Kazakhstan has had an impressive campaign and is just four points within reach of second place. If the two teams at the top slip, they have a chance to sneak between. There is also a chance for them to head to the playoffs, but they have to stay ahead of Finland, who sits fourth.

Northern Ireland and San Marino have already been written off and will be playing the final two games for pride.

Group I: Switzerland, Romania, Israel, Belarus, Andora, Kosovo

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances

Group I is set for an exciting ending as no team is yet to qualify, with Romania, Switzerland, and Israel within five points.

Romania tops the group with sixteen points, with one point ahead of group favourites Switzerland, who have played one game less, meaning they potentially go two ahead of them. The group leaders of the Euro qualifiers group I are five points ahead of Israel, who has played two games less and could go one point ahead.

Hai baieti ca putem si mai rau de atat!!! "Veste proastă de la FIFA pentru România! Visăm la EURO 2024, dar coborâm în clasament https://www.prosport.ro/fotbal-intern/nationala/veste-proasta-de-la-fifa-pentru-romania-visam-la-euro-2024-dar-coboram-in-clasament-19764053 "

— Banel (@Banel2019) October 26, 2023

Israel will play Switzerland and Romania, while Romania is yet to play against Switzerland in the final group game, meaning the fate of each team could be in their own hands, which makes the group evenly more exciting.

Kosovo and Belarus find themselves fighting behind the three bulls in the group and need a miracle to manoeuvre, maybe by winning all their remaining games and hoping the teams at the top lose, but it’s a huge ask.

Andorra is done and dusted with just two points but will have a chance to be part of the circus as they will play Israel, who are desperate for a win.

Group J: Portugal, Slovakia, Iceland, Luxembourg, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Analysis of each team’s performance and chances:

Portugal has been the best performer in the Euro 2024 qualifiers. They look like the outright favourites to win the tournament if it were to be held soon, taking every game seriously like it’s the final match.

The 2016 Euro winners have a better squad than they did in their winning campaign, and their talisman, Cristiano Ronaldo, doesn’t seem to be slowing down as he approaches forty years of age.

The Group J leaders are the highest scorers of the Euro 2024 qualifiers, with thirty goals, having scored nine goals in a single game against Luxembourg.

Slovakia is now second, and they will be up against Iceland and Bosnia to carry over their five points over Luxembourg, who is third. And with the opponents they have got left and the manner in which they have shown themselves to be an improving outfit of late, it is hard to see them stumbling to miss qualification.

When Luxembourg played host to Slovakia, it was a match that would have improved the race for second place had they beaten the visitors, who escaped with a 1-0 win. A draw in that match would just reduce the deficit by two points, while a win would have placed Luxembourg even at top of the group.

Luxembourg fans will be wearing Iceland and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s shirts, hoping they do their bidding and beat Slovakia; however, they need to win both of their matches.

Iceland once gave an impressive performance at the Euros, knocking out England, but has since lost their mojo, accumulating ten points from eight games.

Bosnia has nine points and could be in contention for third place to try to work their way to the playoffs, so it’s not done and dusted for both them and Iceland, but they can’t attain direct qualification.

Liechtenstein have lost all eight games, conceding twenty-four goals.

Latest 2024 Euros Winner Odds

Although there are still games left to play, the best football betting sites have been taking bets for many months. It’s often a good idea to get bets in early as odds usually shorten as the tournament draws close.

According to the odds, England and France are the top favourites to win Euro 2024. Germany, the host country, is also a strong contender and is particularly favoured since they’ll be playing on home soil. Recently, England has been performing exceptionally well. The rise of Jude Bellingham in the crucial number ten role could be the missing element they need to secure their first-ever European title, which they have been aspiring to for a long time.

France has shown offensive firm capabilities but has made several changes to their midfield and the defence since their World Cup win. This may introduce some inconsistencies that may impact prospects in this tournament. On the other hand, Portugal is the standout team from qualification and has a deep squad that should go far.

Euro 2024 – Predictive Analysis

Though predictions are always uncertain, current form, injuries and tactical nuances present exciting perspectives.

Current Form – England: England seems to be on top of their current form with convincing performances in the run-up games. The emergence of young talents like Jude Bellingham could be the missing piece they need to secure a European title finally.

France: Despite some inconsistencies, France remains a strong contender. Their depth in all positions makes them a team to watch.

Portugal: With a perfect record in the qualifiers and a high-scoring team led by Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal could very well repeat their 2016 success.

Injuries – Spain: The fitness of key players such as Sergio Ramos and Ansu Fati who have had injury problems, which may affect the team’s performance.

Belgium: The fitness of Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne will be key to Belgium’s chances. Both players have had injury-ravaged seasons.

Tactical Changes – Germany: As hosts and with a new generation of players, maybe Germany’s tactical adjustments could be critical. A recent formation switch led to more attacking play, which has paid dividends in front of goal.

Italy: After their Euro 2020 win, Italy has been playing with the lineup. Their tactical fluidity can work both ways, depending on how well the players gel. However, there are no guarantees they will qualify as they could be pipped at the post by Ukraine. They would, however, get a second bite of the cherry as they would qualify for the playoffs.

Dark Horses – Netherlands: Currently outside the top favourites but many are being enticed by this new-look young squad.

Turkey: A solid defensive set-up combined with quick counter-attacks could make Turkey a dark horse of the tournament.

Backing these teams could prove profitable if they win. The Netherlands are priced at 16/1 with BetTarget, while Turkey are 50/1 rank outsiders. It would be a shock if either reached the latter stages, but don’t forget Greece stunned the footballing world by beating Portugal in the final in 2004.