Premier League Week 22: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 31 January 2024

Fans of the Premier League are in for a double treat with a round of midweek games this week, which is set to intensify the campaign’s second half. Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, analyses five games in match week twenty-two. Fatigue and squad depth are expected to play a part in performances as players start to return from international action.

The intensity of the Premier League is at its peak, and we are graced with some exciting midweek action and with six points at stake, the table could look quite different by next week. Top of the table, Liverpool will flex their strength against a Chelsea side that has been growing in confidence, while Manchester City play Burnley, hoping to keep pressure on the title chase.

Tottenham has only one shot at silverware left in this campaign; thus, we anticipate a decent performance when they play Brentford, with a chance to edge above Aston Villa and move into fourth.

Wolves have been in fine form and have a tough test against Manchester United at the Molineux with a chance to leapfrog the visitors. West Ham, who are unbeaten in five, takes on Bournemouth at the London Stadium. There are guarantees in the Premier League, with every team a potential equal competitor, making the game equally exciting.

Premier League Betting – Manchester City vs Burnley

Manchester City finally scored and won 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium to defend their FA Cup title. They now have to build a perfect run to put pressure on the league leaders, Liverpool, in their quest for a fourth consecutive Premier League title.

Pep Guardiola has never lost against Burnley in seventeen (sixteen wins, one draw), which should inspire confidence, and the return of Kevin De Bruyne, who has been making influential cameos. Furthermore, the last eight games have gone in the Citizen’s way without conceding.

More good news for the Etihad camp: Erling Haaland will likely return and scored five goals in the last two games against their visitors. A team in excellent form, Manchester City have a remarkable 100% scoring rate at home and 90% overall, indicating a substantial likelihood of them scoring in any match. Particularly in the first half, their scoring rate stands at 100% at home and 65% overall, suggesting a high probability of them finding the net early in the game.

“67% of the time, both teams have scored in Manchester City’s games (both at home and overall). This stat suggests opportunities for bets on both teams to score. At 6/4, I feel there is value in this bet.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

However, their second-half scoring rate drops to 56% at home and 70% overall, which could imply a slight decrease in scoring momentum as the match progresses.

Home team top scorer: – Home team top scorer Erling Haaland, anytime goal scorer 4/9 & first goal scorer 9/4.

Vincent Kompany walked into the Etihad as Manchester City captain, but this time will be in the visitor’s dressing room trying to inspire confidence in a side heavily plagued by relegation worries. Rightly so, as the Clarets couldn’t hold on to a lead, conceding late in stoppage time against fellow relegation strugglers Luton Town to draw 1-1.

The reverse in this fixture saw Burnley lose 3-0 and 6-0 in the FA Cup quarter-finals last season. The saving grace for Burnley is that they have won the most away games (two) against reigning Champions since the start of the 2017-18 season.

Burnley will have watched Luton’s astonishing demolition of Brighton 4-0 on Tuesday and will be under pressure to get results, but there will be much easier opportunities than against the reigning champions.

How good is James Trafford ? Episode out now link in bio #TNP #football #youtube #youtubers #fypシ #burnleyfc #burnley #vincentkompany #premierleague #newpost #podcasting #podcastinglife #footballer #goals #goal #goalkeeper #outnow pic.twitter.com/kYMRK7Jt0E

— Near Post Podcast (@The_Nearpost__) January 29, 2024

Goalkeeper James Trafford, a Manchester City academy graduate with an average of over four saves per game, will be tasked with keeping a clean sheet and the damage to a minimum.

Away team top scorer: – Lyle Foster, anytime goal scorer 15/2 & first goal scorer 25/1.

Selected bets: – Manchester City 1/10, Draw 11/1, Burnley 28/1. Over 2.5 7/20, Under 2.5 12/5. BTTS: No 6/10, Yes 6/4.

Premier League Betting – Tottenham Hotspur vs Brentford

Tottenham failed to win two consecutive crucial games, first against Manchester United after dominating proceedings and at home against Manchester City to get knocked out of the FA Cup. The chance of silverware has narrowed, and the London side, who are just outside top four, must reestablish their credentials as title contenders and close the eight-point gap from leaders, Liverpool.

Ange Postecoglou has built a fierce attacking side that has found the back of the net in thirty-three consecutive games, the longest streak in the club’s history.

The London derby presents a formidable opposition, especially against Brentford, who Spurs have won just once (three draws, one defeat) since they were promoted.

The home side have lost the last two London derbies against Chelsea and West Ham and will be hoping not to make it three London derby defeats on the bounce.

Richarlison’s ten goal involvements (five goals, three assists) have come in the last seven appearances at the Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium.

Home team top scorer: – Richarlison, anytime goal scorer 59/50 & first goal scorer 11/2.

Brentford feels rejuvenated by the return of Ivan Toney, who made a scoring debut after the long hiatus due to the lengthy ban he received due to breaking the rules on football betting.

The 3-2 win against Nottingham Forest ended a seven-game winless run (six wins, one draw) to create a four-point cushion to the relegation zone.

The Bees have lost five consecutive games on the road and will be hoping to keep the charge by changing their objective from survival to Europa Conference League qualification, which they are just ten points shy of.

Thomas Frank led the Bees to a 3-1 victory the last time they travelled to Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium, despite being the only victory in sixteen games (nine defeats, six draws). Playing on a Wednesday has been a bad omen, as the travelling side has lost their last two games.

Comeback Ivan Toney dibalut Undertaker entrance song. 😂😭 pic.twitter.com/lDTJ7vJIji

— Poros Halang ID (@PorosHalangID) January 21, 2024

The focus will be on Toney, their top scorer over the previous three seasons and is just six shy of Bryan Mbuemo’s (seven goals) tally. 6/1 at bet365 seems quite generous odds on him finding the net and I’m tempted with a side bet on him.

Away team top scorer: Ivan Toney, anytime goal scorer 6/1 & first goal scorer 13/2.

Selected bets: Tottenham 13/19, Draw 10/3, Brentford 4/1. Over 2.5 8/15, Under 2.5 13/8. BTTS Yes 4/7 No 31/20.

Premier League Betting – Liverpool vs Chelsea

Jurgen Klopp’s retirement announcement shocked the entire football fraternity and speculation surrounding the club will likely last until the season’s end. There was an immediate response in their FA Cup tie, with Liverpool winning 5-2 against Norwich. Still, I personally am in no doubt that the aim for Liverpool players is for the team to win a second Premier League title in honour of their manager.

The Reds are unbeaten in ten games (seven wins, three draws) and are sitting at the top of the table heading to their tie against old foes, Chelsea.

The Reds’ and Blues’ head-to-head matches have consistently ended in draws over their last seven games, marking the longest streak of tied scores between two prominent clubs in English football. This unique record is due to a series of thrilling on-field action and the presence of high-profile players on both teams.

Meanwhile, manager Jurgen Klopp is on the brink of a significant milestone. He aims to become one of the elite few, specifically the seventh, to achieve two hundred victories in the Premier League, joining a legendary list of just six other managers who have accomplished this feat.

Virgil van Dijk has been a rock for Liverpool, losing just one home game (seventy-five wins, fourteen draws). I wouldn’t be surprised if the defender gets on the scoresheet tonight.

Home team top scorer: – Darwin Nunez, anytime goal scorer 11/8 & first goal scorer 5/1.

Mauricio Pochettino has won just once against Klopp in twelve games (five draws, six defeats). He has an arduous task: to inspire his team to get a result against the players on the pitch but also against an Anfield crowd that has been emotional after news of their manager departing.

The last time Chelsea played was a goalless draw against Aston Villa in the FA Cup. That could prove to be costly as they have an extra game next week in a replay.

Despite a challenging beginning under their Argentine manager, the Blues have maintained a positive outlook and currently hold the ninth position in the league. They are focused on making a comeback to European competition. The upcoming match against Liverpool is pivotal for Chelsea, as it will significantly indicate their progress. A strong performance and favourable result against one of the top teams could be the turning point they need to rejuvenate their season.

No player has scored more match-winning Premier League goals this season than Darwin Núñez or Cole Palmer (4).

Clutch vs. Clutch at Anfield. 🍿#LIVCHE

— Squawka (@Squawka) January 31, 2024

Cole Palmer’s last three goals have been the matchwinner and have been a revelation, with the team seemingly built around the young English attacker.

Away team top scorer: – Cole Palmer anytime goal scorer 13/4 & first goal scorer 15/2.

Selected bets: Liverpool 4/7, Draw 15/4 Chelsea 43/10. Over 2.5 4/9, Under 2.5 9/5. BTTS Yes 8/15, No 13/8.

Premier League Betting – West Ham vs AFC Bournemouth

West Ham’s recent exit from the FA Cup at the hands of Bristol City has provided them with a crucial break to regroup and re-energize for the latter half of the season. They experienced a frustrating 2-2 draw away against Sheffield United in their last Premier League match. Now, with the advantage of playing at home in their upcoming fixture, West Ham aims to return to their winning form.

Their business in the January window saw them bring in Manchester City’s Kalvin Philips on loan to help dominate games from the centre of the pack.

David Moyes’s side is in a five-game unbeaten run (three wins, two draws) in the Premier League and five unbeaten head-to-head games (three wins, two ties) against their weekend opponents. All their successes against Bournemouth came without them conceding, showing a promising encounter for the Hammers to claim maximum points.

James Ward-Prowse was on the scoresheet for his fourth goal of the season, with his deliveries from dead-balls significantly impacting the team.

Home team top scorer: – Jarrod Bowen, anytime goal scorer 2/1 & first goal scorer 6/1.

Bournemouth’s recent away victory, a commanding 5-0 win against Swansea in the FA Cup, has significantly boosted their confidence. This triumph comes after a period of strong performance, where they enjoyed a seven-game unbeaten streak (comprising six wins and one draw) that propelled them to a mid-table position. However, this impressive run was halted by two consecutive defeats against Tottenham and Liverpool.

Despite these setbacks, Bournemouth’s overall form and recent emphatic win suggest they are well-positioned to continue pursuing success in the league.

The side’s away form has seen it take thirteen points from a possible thirty (winning four, drawing one, losing six) and is one of four teams that has won more points on the road than at home.

Tottenham are reportedly considering a late swoop for Bournemouth striker Dominic Solanke ⚪📰

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) January 31, 2024

Dominic Solanke has fourteen goals this campaign and is growing in confidence after a slow start to the season. The English man scored in the reverse fixture; furthermore, his side has failed to score in just one game on the road, raising the prospect for the maestro to have a goal-scoring adventure in the capital.

Away team top scorer: – Dominik Solanke, anytime goal scorer 7/4 & first goal scorer 11/2.

Selected bets: West ham 29/20, Draw 11/4, Bournemouth 37/20. Over 2.5 4/6, Under 2.5 5/4. BTTS Yes 4/7 No 8/5.

Premier League Betting – Wolverhampton vs Manchester United

The Wolves triumphed in the FA Cup against Black County rival West Brom to qualify for the fourth round. It has been quite a turnaround for Gary O’Neil, who seems to have found a groove with the team, enjoying a seven-game unbeaten run (five wins, two draws).

The last time they lost at home was back in September against League leaders Liverpool, marshalling a seven-game unbeaten run at home (six wins, three draws).

Wolves can leapfrog their visitors in the table if they beat them, but they have lost the previous three games against Manchester United, failing to score in each game.

Matt Doherty has never lost a match against United as a Wolves player (winning one, drawing three) and has been in good form, providing an assist for the opening goal at the weekend.

Home team top scorer: – Pedro Neto, anytime goal scorer 11/1 & first goal scorer 9/1.

Erik ten Hag has dealt with big players in the Manchester United camp, with the Marcus Rashford situation returning to haunt him. Last season, the United number ten was dropped for lateness but came off the bench against Wolves to score the winning goal and is in the same situation again. It would be interesting to see how it will be handled.

The Red Devils won 4-2 against Newport in the FA Cup to keep their silverware hopes alive, but now have to focus on European qualification. As is typical of United this season, they did it the hard way, allowing the League Two team to claw back a two-goal deficit to make it 2-2 before a late surge to make it 2-4.

They would need a collective effort to end a four-game winless streak in away games in the league (one draw, three defeats).

I see why we're so bad at scoring goals & Bruno Fernandes was even telling him. You have a striker!!! Rasmus Hojlund was there.

Garnacho what's happening? pic.twitter.com/aLZOcDvfY8

— Kara (@UTDKara) January 31, 2024

Since Christmas, Rasmus Hojlund has contributed four goals (three goals, one assist), scoring with the only shot on target in three games. Manchester United are not good starters, winning at halftime just three times this campaign.

Away team top scorer: – Rasmus Hojlund, anytime goal scorer 7/1 & first goal scorer 7/1.

Away team top scorer: – Wolves 7/4, Draw 13/5, Manchester United 13/8. Over 2.5 11/14, Under 2.5 11/10. BTTS Yes 8/13, No 29/20.

Chelsea has historically experienced more success against Liverpool than many other teams, but the current situation might tilt the scales. The intensity of Liverpool’s title pursuit, fueled by the motivation from their manager’s departure and the advantage of playing at home, suggests that the upcoming match may favour a victory for the home side.

Pep Guardiola’s side should have no trouble against a team he has never lost against, with their eyes on marshalling an excellent winning run to put pressure on Liverpool.

Tottenham desperately need a win to keep up with the pack, but Brentford pose a significant threat with the return of Ivan Toney. Manchester United have to shake off their off-field troubles when they head to the Molineux, while West Ham has a challenging game against the in-form Bournemouth side.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.