Premier League Week 20: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 18 January 2024

Premier League action is back with us as we welcome the second round of Premier League action during the winter break. Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, analyses five games, looking at factors that could affect the team’s performance: fatigue, injuries, and the absence of players in the ongoing continental tournaments.

The Premier League weekend kicks off with an early game at the Emirates Stadium, showcasing a London derby between Arsenal and Crystal Palace. In another exciting match, high-flying Brighton takes on Wolves, with both teams in excellent form. Ivan Toney’s return is also a key highlight in the Brentford versus Nottingham Forest game.

Sheffield United, currently at the lower end of the league standings, hosts West Ham, a team aspiring for a place in European competitions. In this match, the team with the stronger ambition is likely to secure all three points. Meanwhile, an in-form Bournemouth team will play against Liverpool at the Vitality Stadium, where the visiting team aims to keep their position at the top of the table.

Premier League Betting – Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

After losing momentum and dropping to fourth place, five points behind league leaders Liverpool, Arsenal took a much-needed reset with a brief winter break in Dubai to regroup. Mikel Arteta’s team, having won only one game out of their last seven (with two draws and four defeats), finds this form concerning, especially given their aspirations to win the title.

Goals have been lacking in an attack over the last three games (all defeats), but they managed to produce sixty-one shots, scoring just once, prompting an intense search for a striker in the window. Ivan Toney has been mentioned often, but Brentford will likely want big money to part with their talisman.

The traveling side is sitting fourteenth, and it could prove to be just the encounter they need as they have won all the games against a side in the bottom seven (seven wins). Bakayo Saka has fifteen goal involvements (six goals, nine assists) in eighteen London derbies and is Arsenal’s star boy.

Home team top scorer: – Bukayo Saka, anytime goal scorer 9/5 & first goal scorer 11/2.

Crystal Palace recently played in the FA Cup third-round replay, where they suffered a 1-0 defeat at Goodison Park on Wednesday night. Having won their last Premier League match 3-1 against Brentford on December 30th, Roy Hodgson’s team is eager to return to league play. However, the former England manager had to endure jeers from his own support after making substitutions with one eye on this clash with their London neighbours.

The Eagles have a poor record against their London neighbors as they have picked the lowest points (six points) in London derbies this season. They have just one win (three draws, three defeats) in the derbies while paying away in the same derbies; they have one win in seventeen games at the capital (drawing nine, losing six).

The Eagles have no immediate worry about relegation as they are five points clear but need to start building the gap from the red zone.

Keeping the concentration towards the end of games is more important as 38% (eleven) of the goals they have conceded have come after the seventy-fifth minute.

Hodgson picked up a win in his first match thanks to a last-gasp Jean Philippe-Mateta goal ⏱️ pic.twitter.com/nlv239EjVc

— Premier League (@premierleague) April 10, 2023

Jean-Philippe Mateta has two league goals against teams in the top four.

Away team top scorer: – Odsonne Édouard, anytime goal scorer 11/2 & first goal scorer 14/1.

Selected bets: Arsenal 4/13, Draw 24/1, Crystal Palace 11/5. Over 2.5 3/4, Under 2.5 11/10. BTTS: No 7/10, Yes 5/4.

Premier League Betting – Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

The main focus of the upcoming Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest match is Ivan Toney’s return to Brentford after an eight-month suspension. The home crowd highly anticipated this event, especially given the significant interest from major clubs like Arsenal. Toney, Brentford’s leading scorer for the past three seasons, is expected to boost the team’s performance. Brentford has been facing challenges recently, with only one victory and seven losses in their last eight games, and Toney’s comeback is seen as a potential turning point for their form.

The Bees lost their previous match to exit the FA Cup at the hands of the Wolves, which left them to focus on the league.

They have a good record against Nottingham, unbeaten in five games (two wins, three draws), and will hope they can keep up the impressive run. Thomas Frank would worry about his side claiming the highest number of points dropped (twenty) from winning positions.

Toney has consistently scored in each of the three matches he has played against Forest and his last three home games in the Premier League.

Home team top scorer: – Mathias Jensen, anytime goal scorer, 15/2 & first goal scorer, 16/1.

Nottingham Forest will head to Brentford Community Stadium in high spirit after consecutive wins against European-chasing Manchester United and Newcastle. It was an excellent time for their progress, having qualified for the fourth round in the FA Cup after winning the replay against Blackpool, which had to be decided in extra time.

You wonder if the 120 minutes may affect their stamina levels at the weekend. There are also uncertainties about their financial fair play breaches that could warrant a points deduction. The last visit to London saw them lose 5-0 to Fulham, and are winless in their previous three games (one draw, two defeats) against them.

Signed. Sealed. Delivered ✉️@NFFC confirmed their spot in the #EmiratesFACup fourth round after a 110th-minute Chris Wood goal wrapped up a 3-2 win over a resilient @BlackpoolFC side! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/u8eLZpUEub

— Emirates FA Cup (@EmiratesFACup) January 18, 2024

Chris Wood bagged three goals in his previous away game and scored the winning goal in their FA Cup triumph.

Away team top scorer: – Chris Wood, anytime goal scorer 3/1 & first goal scorer 8/1

Selected bets: Brentford 19/20, Draw 14/1, Nottingham Forest 16/5. Over 2.5 9/10, Under 2.5 19/20. BTTS: No 23/20, Yes 3/4.

Premier League Betting – Sheffield United vs West Ham

Sheffield United is in a critical situation at the bottom of the Premier League, having accumulated only nine points, which places them eight points away from safety. No team has ever managed to recover from such a deficit and avoid relegation, making the second half of the season crucial for the Blades.

Sheffield United begins their campaign with a home match against West Ham, aiming for only their third win. Motivating the team, which recently suffered a 3-2 loss to Luton, a fellow struggler, to achieve a positive outcome against West Ham, currently in sixth place, will be challenging. The Blades have the league’s worst defensive record, conceding forty-nine goals and the least effective offense, scoring just fifteen goals. They need to strengthen their squad to enhance their defensive and offensive performance.

They have failed to score in any of the twenty league games this campaign, documenting their troubles. Oli MacBurnie scored the only goal in their 1-0 win against the Hammers in the 2019-20 season and will be leading the line.

Home team top scorer: – Cameron Archer, anytime goal scorer 3/1 & first goal scorer 8/1.

David Moyes has found a working formula for his side in the Premier League, leading them to accumulate ten points in four games (three wins, one draw), their best run in a long time. More impressive has been their defense, which has kept a clean sheet in all four unbeaten games, including victories against Manchester United and Arsenal.

West Ham will have the motivation to travel to South Yorkshire as a win closes the gap to the top four and reignites a Champions League qualification quest. The London side has been great on the road, accumulating sixteen points over the ten games they have played this season, and their record is bettered by the four teams above them in the standings. However, they were knocked out of the FA Cup after a 1-0 defeat by Bristol City, but it could be a blessing in disguise to focus on league and Europa League action.

Tomas Soucek has went viral in recent days.
His goal celebrations have touched nearly every part of the world. pic.twitter.com/cuyUruFOy6

— Hammerz Reels (@ReelHammerz) January 14, 2024

Tomas Soucek has been a lucky charm, with his side avoiding defeat in the eight games he has scored (seven wins, one draw).

Away team top scorer: – Jarrod Bowen, anytime goal scorer 12/5 & first goal scorer 6/1

Selected bets: Sheffield United 5/2, Draw 5/2, West Ham 6/5. Over 2.5 21/20, Under 2.5 17/20. BTTS: No 1/1, Yes 5/6.

Premier League Betting – Bournemouth vs Liverpool

AFC Bournemouth vividly recalls the 9-0 defeat to Liverpool in 2022, but they aim to replicate the more favourable outcome of their confident 1-0 victory early last year. The Cherries have shown significant improvement in their previous nine games, securing seven wins, with one loss and one draw. This successful run includes a notable 3-0 victory over Liverpool’s close competitor, Manchester United, and an impressive 3-2 comeback win against QPR in the FA Cup, where they recovered from a two-goal deficit.

Confidence is in full supply at the Vitality Stadium, with the team sitting twelve points from safety and even the thought of securing Europa Conference League action seemingly possible if they can keep up the impressive run.

Former Liverpool attacker Dominic Solanke will be confident facing his former side as his return of twelve goals will be the highest for any player who will feature in the game. Only Salah (fourteen goals) eclipses this tally and is away with the English attacker eager to show what his former side has been missing in front of goal.

Home team top scorer: – Dominic Solanke, anytime goal scorer 9/4 & first goal scorer 15/2.

Jurgen Klopp has transformed Liverpool into arguably England’s top team, currently leading the Premier League. The Reds have excelled at Anfield, maintaining a fifteen-game unbeaten streak. However, their performance away from home has been less consistent, with points lost in seven matches. This season, they have only suffered one defeat on the road, a 2-1 loss to Tottenham.

Four of their six draws occurred in away games, including a match against the newly promoted Luton Town.

The lead at the top is just two points, with Manchester City chasing, meaning they must be perfect in their performances to keep their advantage. A rise in confidence has been how they have maintained their top attacking flair despite the departure of their top scorer, Mohammed Salah, and have since scored four goals in two games.

Always bring on Darwin if you want to see something different .Nunes,Nunes,Nunes pic.twitter.com/269SLBk9YB

— Afrikan ♡ (@rturn14) January 11, 2024

Darwin Nunes (five goals) will lead the line in their first Premier League game without the Egyptian King.

Away team top scorer: – Darwin Nunez, anytime goal scorer 6/4 & first goal scorer 5/1

Selected bets: Bournemouth 18/5, Draw 7/2, Liverpool 8/11. Over 2.5 10/21, Under 2.5 7/4. BTTS: No 13/8, Yes 13/25.

Premier League Betting – Brighton vs Wolves

The Seagulls are enjoying a four-game unbeaten streak, including a 4-2 victory over Stoke City, securing their place in the fourth round of the FA Cup. In the Premier League, however, their recent form has been a mix, with one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches.

This performance places them eighth in the league, but a win against Wolves could elevate them to sixth place. The previous encounter between Brighton and Wolves at the Amex Stadium was a resounding success for Brighton, as they scored six goals against their visitors. Additionally, Brighton has won each of their last four matches against Wolves, giving them confidence and high spirits for another potential victory.

Brazilian Joao Pedro is having a fantastic debut season with Brighton and is now their top scorer in the league with seven goals.

Home team top scorer: – Joao Pedro, anytime goal scorer 2/1 & first goal scorer 23/4.

Wolves are in excellent unbeaten form, winning four and drawing wins, including a 2-1 win against Chelsea on Christmas Eve and a 3-2 win against Brentford in the FA Cup replay. The run moves them to position eleven, equally close to the top four as they are to the bottom three, signaling the importance of this match to the direction they would like to take in this campaign.

In the Premier League, they are on a three-match winning run, including a 3-0 victory the last time they played. After a tough start to life in the Premier League, Gary O’Neil seems to have found a perfect playing rhythm with his side.

Matheus Cunha ( Only 1.59)

The Most Underrated Player in the Leauge 🇧🇷

Likes and Retweets Appreciated pic.twitter.com/ucrup7vTfz

— Carns (@CarnsCfc) January 15, 2024

Matheus Cunha (six goals) scored the winning penalty to send his team to the FA Cup fourth round and has stepped up in the absence of their top scorer, Hwang Hee-Chan (ten goals), who is away on international duty in the Asian Cup.

Away team top scorer: – Matheus Cunha, anytime goal scorer 100/30 & first goal scorer 10/1.

Selected bets: Brighton 4/6, Draw 17/5, Wolves 9/2. Over 2.5 13/20, Under 2.5 5/4. BTTS: No 6/5, Yes 5/7.

The upcoming fixtures are thrilling, with each team eager to achieve a result supporting their season goals. Currently leading the table, Liverpool faces a significant challenge as Manchester City is just two points behind. The Reds have a tough match against the Cherries, while Arsenal needs a victory against Palace to boost their title aspirations.

In terms of crucial matches, Sheffield United’s fight for Premier League survival faces an early test in their home game against West Ham as they aim to close the eight-point gap to safety. The Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest match appears evenly poised and could swing either way, similar to the Brighton vs. Wolves game. These matchups promise a series of exciting games, likely filled with numerous goals and intense action.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.