Premier League Week 19: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 12 January 2024

The Premier League has returned, well, almost, as only five teams are in action, thanks to the short winter break. We anticipate a rapid pace as teams try to get points in the bag to ramp up the pressure on those teams not playing. Our in-house football expert, Luke Andrews, examines the five upcoming matches, considering elements like player absences due to the African Cup of Nations and the Asian Cup which may affect performances.

The Premier League provides a new twist with the depth of teams tested as players depart for the AFCON and Asian games. The saving grace is that the transfer window is open; thus, teams can buy reinforcement throughout the month.

Our main highlight will be the relegation zone on Friday night football when Burnley plays Luton Town. Two sides were promoted together and are shoulder to shoulder in the survival race. Fulham has a three-game thriller against top six opposition twice against Liverpool in the Carabao Cup, and a Stamford Bridge date this weekend.

Newcastle United is set to host Manchester City, and Manchester United is preparing to receive Tottenham Hotspur. Meanwhile, Everton, seeking a turnaround, will host the in-form Aston Villa at Goodison Park. Everton aims to widen the gap from the relegation zone, whereas Villa eyes an opportunity to contend for the title.

Premier League Betting – Burnley vs Luton Town

Burnley needs to capitalise on their match against Luton Town, especially since they have upcoming games against Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool in rapid succession.

Vincent Kompany expressed his joy at entering the elite ranks of English football. However, the journey has been challenging, with the team currently in the relegation zone, a position they share with their upcoming weekend opponents, making them vulnerable to relegation.

Turf Moor hasn’t been their fortress, managing just one win (nine defeats) in the ten games they have played on home soil. Cumulatively, they have three wins this season, including a 2-1 win against their promotion companions back in October, and have all the ingredients of a relegation form.

They are four points behind Luton and five points from safety, and as early as the season is, anything less than three points feels very catastrophic for the Clarets.

Wilson Odobert’s last three goals in the Premier League have all opened the scoring, so the Frenchman might be worth considering in the first-goal-scorer market.

Home team top scorer: – Lyle Foster, anytime goal scorer 5/2 &first goal scorer 6/1

Like Burnley, Luton Town have found their ascension to the Premier League rather challenging despite being four points better and one away from Everton, who have played a game more.

The Hatters recorded two consecutive wins against Newcastle and Sheffield United before the 3-2 defeat against Chelsea.

Rob Edwards will motivate his team with the notion that a win sends them out of the relegation zone. The Hatters have found joy against the bottom four sides, winning the last two travels to such sides that have produced wins by a single-goal margin. In fact, a single-goal margin has decided all their previous five games (two wins, three defeats).

Andros Townsend would want to make a mark against a side he spent all summer on trial at.

Happy Birthday to Elijah Adebayo, who is 26 today! 🪄

Since signing in Feb 2021 no player has made more appearances, or scored more goals, for the Hatters.

Apps: 130
Gls: 37 pic.twitter.com/rcQcYlXiUQ

— Hatters' Heritage (@HattersHeritage) January 7, 2024

Elijah Adebayo has the best goal tally for both sides; a threat from set pieces will be a real menace in front of goal for the traveling side.

Away team top scorer: – Elijah Adebayo, anytime goal scorer 33/10 & first goal scorer 6/1.

Selected bets: Burnley 1/1, Draw 27/10, Luton Town 3/1. Over 2.5 19/20, Under 2.5 10/11. BTTS: No 11/10, Yes 4/5.

Premier League Betting – Chelsea vs Fulham

Chelsea, emerging from their transitional phase, is earnestly striving to enhance their position in the Premier League. Presently in tenth place and seventeen points behind the league leader, Mauricio Pochettino’s primary aim is to secure European qualification, with the top four spots twelve points ahead.

They are in their best run this season, with three league wins in the last four games, including two consecutive victories. They hope to make it four on the bounce when they welcome Fulham to Stamford Bridge.

The Blues would want to forget fast a 1-0 defeat against Championship outfit Middlesbrough in the Carabao Cup as playing at home is expected to give them the edge. However, as ‘Boro only has a one-goal advantage for the second leg, Chelsea will be confident in overturning the scoreline and progressing to the final. If they win the Carabao Cup, they will qualify for Europe.

They are unbeaten in the previous seven home games (six wins, one draw) in all competitions and would be determined to take all three points in their fortress.

Cole Palmer has found his mojo since moving from Manchester City and is the top scorer for Chelsea with eight goals and the joint-top assist provider with four assists.

Home team top scorer: – Cole Palmer, anytime goal scorer 11/5 & first goal scorer 13/2.

Fulham has been one of the outstanding teams in the Premier League this season, and sitting in position thirteen does not do justice to their performances.

The team’s weaknesses have been exposed in their recent away games, with five losses in their last six matches on the road. This makes their upcoming visit to Stamford Bridge a significant challenge. The team is coming off a disheartening loss to Liverpool, a top-six contender, in the Carabao Cup. In this two-legged semi-final, they surrendered their lead and ultimately fell 2-1.

Fulham faces a crucial period, needing to rally their spirits for two matches against top-six teams. These games present a pivotal opportunity for Fulham to transform their season, as they aim for both silverware and a strong finish to qualify for European football. Currently seven points behind seventh-placed Brighton, they can draw encouragement from their victory over Arsenal as they prepare to face another top-six opponent.

This Raúl Jiménez Rabona 🤤 pic.twitter.com/l6B9Kqn79p

— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) January 10, 2024

Raul Jimenez, who scored in the win against Arsenal and leads Fulham with five goals, will be a key player in their pursuit of success.

Away team top scorer: – Raul Jimenez, anytime goal scorer 16/5 & first goal scorer 10/1.

Selected bets: Chelsea 16/25 Draw 7/2 Fulham 9/2. Over 2.5 8/13, Under 2.5 29/20. BTTS Yes 4/6, No 5/4.

Premier League Betting – Newcastle vs Manchester City

Newcastle supporters experienced a disappointing holiday, with the team losing all three matches during the festive season, pushing them further from the European qualification spots. The Magpies have had a challenging season, significantly affected by injuries that have hindered their progress. They are likely looking forward to the January transfer window as an opportunity to bolster their squad depth.

However, the Newcastle hierarchy has already warned fans that any improvements to the playing squad may have to be financed by selling players due to financial regulations. These will most likely be players who graduated from Newcastle’s academy.

Eddie Howe would be delighted they triumphed 3-0 against Sunderland in the FA Cup to reignite their quest for silverware. They, however, have a tough Premier League date with treble winners Manchester City having found joy in beating them 1-0 in the League Cup at St. James Park early this season.

That means they are unbeaten against them in the last two games, as they secured a 3-3 draw in August 2022. Their impressive record of seven consecutive home wins was halted by Nottingham Forest losing 3-1 on Boxing Day.

The Magpies will seek inspiration from Miguel Almiron, who recorded an assist against Sunderland and has three of his five goals this campaign being scored home.

Home team top scorer: Alexander Isak – Anytime goal scorer 13/5 & first goal scorer 8/1.

The reigning league Champions put five past Huddersfield in the FA Cup over the weekend in their quest for a second successive treble. More impressively, they have won five consecutive games in all competitions without conceding, which would significantly improve given their defensive frailties early this campaign. There are just five points between league leaders, Liverpool, and the Citizens, and with the return of Kevin De Bruyne from injury at the opportune time, just as he did last season to lead the late title charge.

With his high standards, Pep Guardiola would be furious for his side’s return of just three wins (one draw, three defeats) across seven games on the road, which would be a genuine concern, and he would expect a reaction.

They have had no trouble in front of goals in their travels, with an average of 2.4 goals across the five away games.

Julian Alvarez this szn 🔥

29 games
13 goals
10 assists pic.twitter.com/pDu5qwJrlh

— Andy🇲🇽🇺🇾🦅 (@LosBlancosftbl) January 12, 2024

Julian Alvarez has fit into Erling Haaland’s shoes perfectly, scoring five goals in four games, and should perform better with the return of De Bruyne.

Away team top scorer: – Phil Foden – Anytime goal scorer 9/4 & first goal scorer 13/2.

Selected bets: Newcastle 9/2, Draw 7/2, Manchester city 8/13. Over 2.5 8/13, Under 2.5 13/10. BTTS Yes 8/11, No 6/5.

Premier League Betting – Manchester United vs Tottenham

Manchester United have a better historical record against their weekend visitors, with thirty-nine wins against Tottenham’s eleven wins and thirteen draws in their sixty-three encounters.

They have won the last two games here (2-0, 3-2) after the 6-1 defeat in the Theatre of Dreams.

Describing Manchester United’s season in a single word would be ‘inconsistent’. They have shown flashes of brilliance with exceptional performances but haven’t maintained this level across their last five matches.

The last time they secured back-to-back victories was in November, indicating a slowdown in their progress. Currently, they are positioned eighth, trailing the leaders by fourteen points.

Erik Ten Hag has to work on his side’s attacking prowess, as they are the lowest scorers in the top half of the table with twenty-two goals. The significant departure for AFCON that is still undetermined will be goalkeeper Andre Onana, who is expected to represent Cameroon; however, a deal is in place to allow the keeper to play against Spurs before joining his international teammates.

Scott McTominay is Manchester United’s top goal scorer with five goals.

Home team top scorer: Scott McTominay – Anytime goal scorer 10/3 & first goal scorer 11/1.

Tottenham Hotspur has been notably active in the transfer window, a necessary move given the injury issues that disrupted their excellent start, which had them leading the Premier League. Currently, they face the challenge of compensating for the absence of their key player, Heung Min Son, who has been directly involved in seventeen goals (twelve goals and five assists). Son is away on international duty with South Korea for the Asian Cup. Their midfield duo of Yves Bissouma (Ivory Coast) and Pape Matar Sarr (Senegal) will represent their nationalities in the African Cup of Nations.

Spurs sit fifth with thirty-nine points and are just six points off Liverpool, meaning they are still in the title race and hoping they can qualify back to Europe. A good result would set up a good run over a tough month without their key players as they integrate new signing Timo Werner to lead the line. The German attacker managed ten goals in fifty-six appearances in his previous stance for London side Chelsea and hopes to improve his numbers.

Timo Werner's first day at Spurs…a great signing for Tottenham or more in the Kai Havertz category – hopeless 😂 pic.twitter.com/eFtRqs5QBF

— ⚽️442oons⚽️ (@442oons) January 12, 2024

“Timo Werner joining Tottenham was a huge surprise and could turn out to be a great signing if the German can replicate his scoring rate of his early career. It never worked out for him at Chelsea, and he will feel he has much to prove. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got on the scoresheet in this game, I’ll be backing him at 12/5.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Away team top scorer: Dejan Kulusevski – Anytime goal scorer 9/2 & first goal scorer 13/1.

Selected bets: Manchester United 5/4, Draw 29/10, Tottenham 21/10. Over 2.5 12/25, Under 2.5 17/10. BTTS Yes 4/9, No 15/8.

Premier League Betting – Everton vs Aston Villa

Everton’s season has been marked by significant ups and downs, starting with a point deduction that spurred a remarkable turnaround. They responded by winning four consecutive games, which propelled them out of the relegation zone. However, after achieving a sense of safety, their form dipped, and they have since gone winless in their last five matches across all competitions, including four losses and one draw. Three of these winless games were in the Premier League, casting a shadow over the festive season for their fans.

The Toffees are just one point from safety and would need a response early to steer clear of the red zone. Aston Villa is not the ideal opponent as they have lost all the previous five head-to-head games against them, losing by a 6-0 aggregate against them last season. Dominic Calvert Lewin’s red card against Crystal Palace has been overturned and will be available for selection to lead the line.

Abdoulaye Doucoure, on six goals, has the best numbers in front of the goal for Sean Dyche’s side.

Home team top scorer: Abdoulaye Doucoure – Anytime goal scorer 19/20 & first goal scorer 5/1.

Aston Villa’s impressive season doesn’t seem to be slowing down, recovering from the 3-2 defeat by Manchester United with a win by the same scoreline against Burnley.

Under Unai Emery’s guidance, the team currently holds the second spot in the Premier League table, surpassing Manchester City and trailing Liverpool by just three points. This position solidifies them as serious contenders for the title, reflecting significant progress in a relatively short period under the Spanish manager. While securing a spot in the Champions League would be a notable achievement for Villa, their current standing elevates them beyond mere qualification hopefuls to genuine title challengers, especially in their upcoming match against a relegation-threatened Everton.

They advanced to the next round of the FA Cup with a close 1-0 victory over Middlesbrough, gaining momentum despite facing the challenge of playing at the intimidating Goodison Park.

How good has Ollie Watkins been this season? 🔥 pic.twitter.com/TQqxJRplRA

— Premier League (@premierleague) January 10, 2024

Ollie Watkins has been a standout performer this season, being directly involved in seventeen goals (scoring nine and assisting eight). Leon Bailey follows closely behind, contributing to eleven goals (scoring six and assisting five).

Away team top scorer: Ollie Watkins – Anytime goal scorer 18/1 & first goal scorer 5/1.

Selected bets: Everton 9/5, Draw 5/2, Aston Villa 7/5. Over 2.5 3/16, Under 2.5 4/1. BTTS Yes 9/5, No 4/7.

This weekend promises an exciting array of matches, each offering its own intriguing twist. The relegation battle, in particular, is shaping up to be highly engaging, especially at the start. It will be fascinating to see which team gains the upper hand, as these closely contested matches could swing in either direction.

Manchester City appears to be in a strong position, especially with the anticipated return of Kevin De Bruyne, which is expected to boost their title pursuit. A solid performance in their away game against Newcastle would be an excellent beginning. As the defending champions, they seem to have an edge. Meanwhile, Aston Villa, actively involved in the title race, will face a significant test of their credentials against an Everton team that is eager to climb towards safety.

Manchester United’s upcoming classic encounter with Tottenham is steeped in the significance of European qualification. This match, like others this weekend, appears evenly matched and could swing in either direction, making predictions challenging but the viewing experience highly exciting. This weekend is shaping up to be one of the most evenly contested and thrilling in recent times.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.