Premier League Week 16: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 8 December 2023

It is non-stop action in the Premier League, with the weekend looking lively with yet another round of action from the best league in the world. Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, will analyse five of his picks that promise to be the best from the bunch. The intensity and frequency of the games bring in factors such as fitness that could play a part. Luke will go in-depth to look at all the factors from history, recent performance, injuries, and fatigue that could influence the results.

The midweek games set us up for an exciting weekend with changes at the top of the table. Manchester City lost against Aston Villa and now travels to Luton Town, hoping to return to winning ways after four winless games. Villa is unbeaten in the last fourteen home games and welcomes the league leaders in a thrilling match that could underline their title-challenging credentials. The Gunners will be confident as they are the last team that won at Villa Park, but that’s a match to savour.

Manchester United won against Chelsea at Old Trafford and will be confident in welcoming Bournemouth, hoping to return to the top four. Depending on the Arsenal result, Liverpool travel to Crystal Palace could finish the weekend at the top of the table. Brighton has been in fine form and has a poor history against Burnley, with the circumstances favouring a great chance to end this run.

Premier League Betting – Aston Villa Vs Arsenal

Aston Villa is in dreamland, sitting third in the Premier League table and enjoying a fantastic home spell of fourteen games unbeaten. They beat Manchester City at Villa Park midweek and will be confident welcoming the league leaders, knowing a win keeps them within a point from the top. They are unbeaten in the last six games in all competitions (five wins, one draw), which is quite an exceptional form heading to the tie.

Unai Emery is a Europa League specialist and will be eyeing to return to a more robust competition than the Europa Conference League in which they excel. Furthermore, the Spaniard, a former Arsenal manager, will be excited to welcome them as he is unbeaten in four of the five encounters (one win, three draws) since he departed the Emirates.

“Picking a winner in this game is a bit of a lottery as it could go either way. I fancy Ollie Watkins to get on the scoresheet and at 3/1 to score anytime, that’s where my money will be on.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Ollie Watkins is Villa’s top scorer and has four goals in his last six appearances against the Gunners.

Home team top scorer: Ollie Watkins – Anytime goal scorer 2/1 & first goal scorer 6/1 with bet365.

The Gunners are cruising at the top of the table and have found a way to squeeze in results, as they had to wait for the last kick of the game to triumph against Luton Town (4-3).

Mikel Arteta will be in the stands after three yellow cards after a raucous celebration after Declan Rice headed the winning goal. They are the new mentality kings of the Premier League, becoming the first to score five winning goals after the ninetieth minute in a calendar year.

Arsenal are top of the table and in fine form, winning six consecutive games. Their form on the travel is the main worry, having won three of the last seven (one draw, three defeats) but having won the previous two away games.

Goals involvement aside, Declan Rice has arguably been the best Premier League player. He is ever fit and present and athletic enough to manoeuvre everywhere on the pitch, with his winning goal in midweek adding an end product to the beautiful football he has been playing.

Away team top scorer: Gabriel Jesus – Anytime goal scorer 5/2 & first goal scorer 7/1.

Selected bets: Aston Villa 13/5, Draw 14/5, Arsenal 23/20. Over 2.5 10/13, Under 2.5 6/5. BTTS: No 11/8 Yes 33/50

Premier League Betting – Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Crystal Palace is winless in the last four games (one draw, three defeats), even losing 2–0 to Bournemouth.

Roy Hodgson has work to do on his side, especially in the attack, as their record of fourteen goals is second to league-bottom side Sheffield United. The Selhurst Park, in particular, has not felt like home lately, failing to score in four of the seven games they have played there this season.

Their worst start in terms of points accumulated at home with just five, their lowest since they got four points in the 2000-01 campaign.

📅 2021/22: 6 goals in 28 games
📅 2022/23: 6 goals in 13 games

Odsonne Édouard has equalled his tally from last season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/1fk8FdtUNG

— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 3, 2023

Odsonne Edouard scored against the Reds in the 2021-22 season and is the likely player to get on target, bearing in mind all his seven goals have come in the second half.

Home team top scorer: Odsonne Edouard – Anytime goal scorer 10/3 & first goal scorer 9/1.

Liverpool has ascertained their authority in the Premier League this campaign and is arguably the best team, creeping just two points behind leader Arsenal.

As the hosts struggle with finding the back of the net, the visiting side has scored in the last thirty-two games in all competitions, looking steady to break the thirty-four consecutive games scoring record.

Jurgen Klopp would be happy with his side winning smoothly without coming from behind in midweek, where they beat Sheffield United 2–0. The Reds could benefit from Arsenal’s tough fixture against third-placed Aston Villa as a chance to move to the top ahead of their meeting later this month.

The Reds have won the last ten head-to-head games against the Eagles and would be confident to repeat that fate here. Mohammed Salah hopes to become the fifth player for Liverpool to achieve two hundred goals for Liverpool.

Away team top scorer: Mohammed Salah – Anytime goal scorer 6/5 & first goal scorer 4/1.

Selected bets: Crystal Palace 21/4, Draw 18/5, Liverpool 11/20. Over 2.5 4/6, Under 2.5 7/5. BTTS Yes 10/13 No 23/20.

Premier League Betting – Luton Town vs Manchester City

Luton Town was just seconds from securing a massive point against the league leader Arsenal but conceded with the last action to lose 4–3. Declan Rice broke the hearts of the jubilant Kenilworth Road with a ninety-seventh-minute header but had to pick themselves up and challenge again against the treble winners.

Twenty-two of the thirty goals they conceded have come in the second half. Rob Edwards would be delighted with his side’s spirited effort and hope they can give another such performance.

They have a poor home record with just one win (two draws, four defeats) in the seven games they played this season, where they scored in six. The Hatters should work on their strength, scoring headers that could be their best chance against the defending champions.

Their defenders face a tough shift over the weekend, but if they can find a way to contain Erling Haaland and maximise on-set pieces, maybe they can steal a point, especially with City being out of sorts at the moment.

Home team top scorer: Micah Hamilton – Anytime goal scorer 7/5 & first goal scorer 7/1.

Manchester City are on a joint longest winless run like the one they had in November 2009, failing to take three points in four games (three draws, one defeat).

Pep Guardiola has built one of the best teams on the ball and has struggled to keep possession of this campaign. In their draw against Tottenham, early in the second half, they had an inferior possession of twenty-nine and failed to control the game.

The Citizens were outplayed midweek, losing 1–0 to Aston Villa, managing just two shots, and Ederson making several good saves to prevent further disappointments. They don’t look like a side keen to win a record four consecutive titles, but a game against newly promoted side Luton is a chance to build their confidence, which seems lacking.

🗣️ "There are many factors"

Pep Guardiola says it would be so simplistic to say that Manchester City's dip in form is down to just Rodri being unavailable 🔵 pic.twitter.com/xF701qVymc

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) December 8, 2023

Rodri was a big miss; his indiscipline has already seen him miss four games this season. It would be essential to ascertain dominance from the midfield.

Away team top scorer: Erling Haaland – Anytime goal scorer 1/2 & first goal scorer 5/1.

I have omitted the head-to-head data as the two last met in April 1999, a third-tier league meeting that City won 2-0 with goals from Paul Dickov and Tony Vaughan

Selected bets: Luton town 18/1, Draw 17/2, Manchester City 1/6. Over 2.5 3/5, Under 2.5 41/10. BTTS Yes 4/3 No 8/11

Premier League Betting – Manchester United vs Bournemouth

You can’t tell which version of Manchester United will appear against Bournemouth. There is the lousy side that was beaten 1–0 against Newcastle and the spirit side that showed up midweek against Chelsea.

Despite the win, the Red Devils were still unproductive in front of the goal, scoring just twice from twenty-eight shots and accumulating an expected average (XG) of four goals.

It doesn’t feel like a real problem, but the fact that they have scored just eighteen times in the last fifteen games raises eyebrows.

They have won the previous two games at Old Trafford, and a win will send them level with Manchester City, which would be quite an achievement with their numerous frailties this campaign.

They need to keep up their weekend performance consistently, as after this encounter, they face Bayern Munich, which will determine their European progress. Scott McTominay scored twice in their 2–1 win against Chelsea, which was part of sixteen of his seventeen goals that have all come at Old Trafford.

Home team top scorer: Scott McTominay – Anytime goal scorer 7/2 & first goal scorer 11/1.

Bournemouth is enjoying a great spell in the Premier League with two wins in their last two travels and hopes to make it three in a row when they travel to the Theatre of Dreams.

Andoni Iraola’s men won their match 2–0 against Crystal Palace in midweek and seem to have clicked in recent weeks with the team responding to the manager’s tactics.

They now feel like an authentic Premier League outfit. That said, it’s important to note that they were serious contenders for relegation at the beginning of the season. The Cherries have two wins from the two games on the road, looking for a third straight victory, but have never won (one draw, nine defeats) at Old Trafford in a record that stretches seventy years.

Kieffer Moore was on target when the Cherries played the Red Devils, with five of his goals being headers.

Away team top scorer:Dominik Solanke – Anytime goal scorer 3/1 & first goal scorer 9/1.

Selected bets: Manchester United 11/20, Draw 19/5, Bournemouth 24/5. Over 2.5 11/20, Under 2.5 6/4. BTTS Yes 7/10 No 11/8.

Premier League Betting – Brighton vs Burnley

Brighton has tasted European football and is keen to secure a spot in the competition again this campaign. They have been steady in their quest so far, and welcoming newly promoted side Burley, battling relegation, could be a great chance to add to their points tally.

The Seagulls have won more games in the continental campaign than in the Premier League, despite playing more games in the league showing a considerable imbalance.

However, The South Coast outfit stayed afloat at eight, just eight points off the top four.

The Seagulls are in a great run with just one defeat (five wins, three draws) in the last nine games, including a big win against Brentford in midweek, signalling an excellent period for the Brighton faithful.

Home team top scorer: Evan Ferguson – Anytime goal scorer 5/4 & first goal scorer 17/2.

The last time the Clarets lost against Brighton at the Amex was in 2013, when they were in good form, with two wins and four draws in their seven games. The head-to-head record would be a huge motivating factor to carry into the match, hoping to inspire their performance.

Vincent Kompany’s side plays on the road once again, having lost 1–0 against Wolves in midweek, making that four straight defeats on the road. They have kept just one clean sheet this campaign, but that was against ten men, Sheffield United, and they would need a robust defensive performance if they want to survive in the Premier League.

Have to talk about Josh Brownhill.

Looks at home in this 4-4-2 and has done for the past few weeks. When partnered with Sander Berge he’s very solid.

They compliment eachother massively — Brownhill does the dirty work and Berge has the class & all round ability in possession.… pic.twitter.com/fl0Km3qUvZ

— Jacob (@JacobHorsfall_) December 3, 2023

Josh Brownhill played a massive part in a big performance in this stadium, winning 3–0 with the maestro scoring. I hope he can repeat that fate. Three points would be massive for the relegation-zoned side.

Away team top scorer: Benicio Boaitey – Anytime goal scorer 8/5 & first goal scorer 5/1.

Selected bets: Brighton 13/25, Draw 19/5, Burnley 11/2. Over 2.5 7/12, Under 2.5 6/4. BTTS Yes 14/19 No 6/5.

I’m excited as we approach matchweek fifteen, which feels like a real test, especially for the teams challenging for the title.

The Aston Villa match against Arsenal should be a blockbuster, with the home form for Villa and the form of the top of the table side adding much flavour to the clash. Liverpool have a potentially easier encounter, which will send shockwaves to the Emirates Stadium as they could lose their lead at the top this weekend.

Pep Guardiola’s side has to toil for a result and bring their best performance against Luton Town, who have a real aerial threat. The tussle at the top four feels exciting right from the onset, and the fact that Manchester City are trailing with the potential of coming back on top makes this a thrilling contest.

If Manchester United can replicate their performance against Chelsea, they could swiftly sweep away Bournemouth. Burnley needs to start scoring goals and accumulating points to replicate the great performances on the pitch. The Amex is not a stadium you are excited to visit; with Brighton just five points off the top four, it means they will be determined to draw closer with their eyes on European football.

All the games highlighted have an extra edge set to make them more exciting and significantly impact the table.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.