Keir Starmer Is Just 8/11 to Be the UK’s Next Prime Minister
The appointment of Liz Truss as Britain’s fourth Tory Prime Minister in six years has been overshadowed by the death of Queen Elizabeth II. In time, life will return to normality, politics will come back to the fore, and the country will be ruled by the Conservative Party for the foreseeable future.
Remarkably, it has been 12 years since Labour last had a grip on power. May 11th, 2010, was the day Conservative David Cameron became Prime Minister. Taking over from Gordon Brown, he held the position for six years and 64 days. Theresa May and Boris Johnson have followed.
Liz Truss (pictured with husband Hugh O’Leary) now has the keys to 10 Downing Street. But for how long will she occupy the famous Prime Minister’s residence? ©GettyImages
The question bookmakers are now asking is, how long will Liz Truss and her party remain in charge of the country? A plethora of general election betting markets have recently opened, and they suggest Truss is unlikely to better Boris Johnson’s three years and 45 days in power.
Poll Position Is a 2024 Election
The next general election must take place on or before January 24th, 2025. This represents a maximum five-year term from the day the current Parliament first met plus 25 days. Of course, an election can be called beforehand.
Interestingly, on August 11, at a Tory hustings, Truss told Conservative party members: “I will not have an election before 2024.” Will she stick to her word now she is in power? Bookmakers are not convinced. Some offer just 3/1 about a 2023 election. The next Prime Minister betting sites will give you 4/1 about that being the year Britain goes back to the polls.
There is a similar disagreement concerning the election taking place later this year. William Hill sportsbook quote 25/1, Paddy Power goes just 9/1. But, the clear favorite is 2024 or later. Bet365 is advertising the industry top price of 2/7 on this option.
Will Truss Make a Snap Call?
The decision is in Truss’ hands. The Prime Minister can choose when to call a general election. It is noteworthy that the last two parliaments did not run for a full term. Theresa May called an early election in 2017 – it was a mistake that cost the Tories their majority.
Boris Johnson also called an early election in 2019. It was a big success for the Conservatives, as they claimed a significant majority. On this occasion, the bookmakers very much got their predictions right.
Understanding the UK’s inflation-ridden economy is widely predicted to hit the skids in the coming years – and with recession and inflation fears growing – a snap election would make a lot of sense. Globally, governments rarely stay in power during times of hardship. For this reason, with the odds factored in, our selection and Truss’ decision must be a 2023 election.
Keir Starmer Favorite to Be Next PM
Next question, who will win that election? The bookies cannot separate the two parties. In a ‘who will win the most seats’ market, both are 10/11. The Liberal Democratic Party can be supported at 100/1. Reform UK, Green Party and UKIP can all be backed at 500/1-plus.
Interestingly, Labour leader Keir Starmer is 8/11 to be the next Prime Minister. Truss is 5/4. This is reflected in a ‘Conservative leader at the next general election’ betting market where Coral bookmakers believe the likelihood of her being at the helm is 1/4.
Betting on the Prime Minister’s successor is wide open. Kemi Badenoch, the Secretary of State for International Trade, just tops the betting at 7/1. She is followed by the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng on 8/1.
Surprisingly, Boris Johnson is 10/1 to lead the Conservative Party once again. But there are over 60 names featured on the next Tory leader betting list. It is a witless market that should be overlooked for now – unless you have a crystal ball!
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The Year of the Next General Election: 2023 4/1
