German Form Points to a 25/1 l’Arc de Triomphe Simca Stunner
Simca Mille can stake a genuine claim on the 2023 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Priced 25/1 and burdened with the widest of all starting stalls, it would appear an absurd statement. But, by a process of elimination, this French-trained four-year-old appears one of the strongest each-way propositions in Sunday’s €5 million race.
A seventh l’Arc de Triomphe success for Frankie Dettori? Fairytale material. ©Getty
Of course, there will be much focus on this year’s contest being Frankie Dettori’s final appearance in the l’Arc de Triomphe. The Italian has won the race six times. While the bookmakers currently quote his mount, Free Wind, on 20/1, they know the 66/1 available about the mare before the retiring jockey was booked to partner her is a more accurate reflection of her chances.
And the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe betting sites are also braced for an avalanche of money to arrive for Japan’s representative, Through Seven Seas. The mare, who has ordinary form compared to compatriots that have tried and failed to capture the Arc in the past, is a miserly 16/1 shot.
A Genius Would Look at the Stats
Continuous is another destined to start at shorter odds than logic dictates. No horse has ever won the St Leger and Arc in the same season. Nine have tried since 2001, and only one finished in the frame. These are the only stats that matter with this one.
There is a sense that his Coolmore owners must have a representative in this contest, and Continuous – beaten 15 lengths when last racing at Longchamp – is the best bullet they have to fire at the prize. Aidan O’Brien trains Ryan Moore’s mount. Frequently labelled ‘genius’, the O’Brien factor probably contributes to Continuous’ relatively short 6/1 odds.
Following his King George heroics, Hukum owes us nothing. However, drawn unfavourably in stall 14 and being a six-year-old – an age that has never won the l’Arc de Triomphe – this time, he is reluctantly passed by.
The Double the Ace Cannot Trump
The unbeaten three-year-old Ace Impact is likely to start as favourite. He was massively impressive when taking the Prix du Jockey Club (the French Derby), and his trainer, Jean-Claude Rouget, has been bullish in interviews leading up to Sunday’s race.
🏆Qatar Prix du Jockey Club(G1) (French Derby) 2.100 m – 1.500.000 EUR – for 3yo 🇫🇷Chantilly
Ace Impact (IRE) (3C Cracksman – Absolutly Me ,by Anabaa Blue) J : @CristianDemuro T : J.-C. Rouget O : Ecuries Serge Stempniax B : Mrs Waltraut Spannerpic.twitter.com/yezw8sai1s
— 𝙒𝙤𝙧𝙡𝙙𝙍𝙖𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙜 (@WorldRacing1) June 4, 2023
But, it should not be overlooked that the history books show no horse has completed the Prix du Jockey Club and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe double since 2003. Furthermore, as a son of Cracksman, doubts linger about his ability to see out a 12-furlong trip at the highest level.
Westover, who won a weak Irish Derby in 2022 before being beaten seven lengths in last year’s Arc, is trading at 7/1. The trip is of no concern for him, and he has Group-1 winning form in France. On paper, wherever Hukum finishes, he should be in close attendance, and therefore his price seems fair.
Do Not Ignore Fantastic German Form
Fantastic Moon is trading on 14/1, and like Simca Mille, he is considered ‘over-priced’. That could be because the little-known Sarah Steinberg trains him in Germany. No holes can be picked in this German Derby winners’ performance in the key Arc trial, the Prix Niel, three weeks ago.
He easily won the Group-2 contest raced over the Arc’s course and distance. In doing so, he accounted for Feed The Fame – who re-opposes in Sunday’s Arc – by a comfortable two-and-a-half lengths. That rival, trained Pascal Bary, who has not won an Arc in 40 years of trying, is a bewildering 10/1 poke.
But we believe the German form is strong and, while convinced Fantastic Moon will beat more home than beat him, Simca Mille remains the one to back each-way in Sunday’s €2.5 million to-the-winner contest.
Yes, he is drawn in stall 15, but so were the 2001 and 2013 Arc winners. His trainer, Stephane Wattel, may have had to wait 30 years for his first Group-1 winner, but Simca Mille did not know that when winning the Group-1 Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten in mid-August.
And what a piece of form that is: Two of the last three winners of that contest, Torquator Tasso and Alpinista, took that famous race en route to becoming the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe champion in 2021 and 2022. That is a stat! And 25/1 is a knocking price!
