Formula 1 Betting 2024: A Testing Time for Teams and Bookies

by Roy Brindley, 2 February 2024

For the first time in the sport’s history, the new Formula 1 season will have a driver line-up that is unchanged from the previous year. 2024 will also see a record number of races. The return of China to the calendar following a five-year absence means 24 Grand Prix are scheduled between March 2 and December 8.

Max Verstappen and Red Bull dominated Formula 1 in 2023. Bookmakers are predicting more of the same for 2024. ©RedBull

Formula 1 betting sites quote Max Verstappen on 1/5 to take the World Drivers’ Championship title for a fourth straight season. He will start 2024 on a sequence of 17 race wins from 18 race starts. Despite not winning a race in 104 career starts, Lando Norris trades as the second favourite in the championship betting.

Veteran Lewis Hamilton, currently on a 45-race winless streak, can be backed on 14/1 to claim his eighth World Drivers’ Championship title. Ferrari’s number one driver, Charles Leclerc, is available on the same odds.

Steps, Big or Small, at Mercedes F1

In 2024, all ten Formula 1 teams will again have to operate within a $135 million budget. The cost cap should theoretically favour Verstappen’s Red Bull team as they have a design that has proven itself superior to its rivals. The onus is on Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, et-al to develop a car capable of catching the imperious Red Bull.

Mercedes has ambitious plans to make up the lost ground on its old foes. As the 2023 season drew to a close, Toto Wolff, team principal of the German squad, revealed its car will be completely overhauled in preparation for the 2024 season.

“We are changing the concept. We are completely moving away from how we laid out the chassis, the weight distribution, the airflow,” the 52-year-old Austrian told Sky Sports. “Literally almost every component is being changed because only by doing that I think we have a chance.”

“We could get it wrong also. So, between not gaining what we expect, to catching up and making a big step and competing at the front, everything is possible,” Wolff declared. Fans will get their first glimpse of the 2024 Mercedes at its official launch on February 14.

When Are 2024’s Formula 1 Cars Launched?

During three days of pre-season testing, 2024’s Formula 1 cars will be properly and publicly put through their paces for the first time. Between February 21-23 inclusive, during six four-hour sessions at Bahrain International Circuit, fans, critics, and motorsport betting sites will be able to judge the raw pace of all teams and drivers.

One week later, at the very same 5.41-kilometre Sakhir track, the opening race of the season takes place. It is a contest won by Lewis Hamilton five times in the past. Max Verstappen claimed the prize for the first time in 2023.

Smoooooth overtaking from Max Verstappen in Jeddah 🧈 #SaudiArabianGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/NZBKKhnXGy

— Formula 1 (@F1) March 20, 2023

Completing a hectic few weeks, the fourth Saudi Arabian Grand Prix will race its way around the ultra-fast Jeddah Corniche Circuit seven days later. There is a two-week gap before round three of the championship in Australia.

Formula 1’s Complete 2024 Race Schedule

What Changes Are in Store for 2024

Although no drivers have entered or left the sport in 2024, there have been some significant changes. Two teams will race under a new name. Alfa Romeo has been rebranded as Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber, and AlphaTauri, formerly Toro Rosso, has been rebranded as Visa Cash App RB F1 Team.

Former Ferrari racing director Laurent Mekies has replaced Franz Tost as the team principal at the newly named Visa Cash App RB F1 Team. Ayao Komatsu is another new appointment for 2024. He has been promoted from Head of Trackside Operations to the overall leader of the Haas F1 Team.

The structure of the sprint weekends changes in 2024, but the exact details of these changes have yet to be finalised. Six venues will host F1 Sprint events during the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship season. They are China, Brazil, Austria, Austin, Qatar, and Miami.

How Do the Bookies View the Season?

Few will be interested in Max Verstappen’s 1/5 odds in the World Drivers’ Championship. Similarly, Unibet’s 7/20 quote on Red Bull taking the World Constructors’ Championship is unlikely to see the Internet suffer a meltdown.

Last season, Max Verstappen and his Red Bull teammate, Sergio Perez, scored a combined 860 points. That haul was more than double the collective total of Mercedes (409 points) and Ferrari (406). Despite longer odds, the stats suggest this is a far better bet.

During my 15 years of Formula 1 betting experience, I’ve rarely seen so much value in driver match-up markets. Here is how bet365 view 2024’s teammate-on-teammate end-of-season standings:

Oscar Can Win the McLaren Prize

Backing Max Verstappen at 1/50 to outscore Sergio Perez will yield two percent interest on a nine-month investment. At the current interest rates – and without the fear of a total loss – putting your money in a savings account is a far better and more profitable option.

Could Verstappen conceivably be beaten in this match-up? The answer is yes. Michael Schumacher was similarly priced to outscore his teammate, Eddie Irvine, in 1999. But, suffering a broken leg in the British Grand Prix, he missed seven of the season’s 16 races and finished fifth in the standings.

Anything can happen in Formula 1 betting, but what will most likely happen? Oscar Piastri could belie his 9/4 odds in his match-up with Lando Norris. The Australian, winner of the Formula 3 and Formula 2 Championships, took his time to find his feet in Formula 1 during 2023’s rookie season.

However, he finished the second half of the season strongly. Taking a pair of podium finishes, he showed improved pace week-on-week. His reward could be equal treatment in the McLaren team in 2024. Given equal opportunities, numerically, Piastri is unlikely to finish far behind Norris if he does not beat him.

What Is the Best Season Long Bet?

Alpine drivers Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly are 1,000/1 in the championship betting. They both took a single third-placed finish during 2023, helping the French team into third position in the World Constructors’ Championship standings.

A nightmare weekend for Alpine 😬

Both Gasly and Ocon are OUT after contact with eachother 💥 pic.twitter.com/X7UQKIyPgb

— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) July 23, 2023

Little more is expected of them or Alpine in 2024. However, bet365 and other motorsport betting sites have made an obvious mistake in pricing both Ocon and Gasly 5/6 in a season-long match bet proposition.

Pierre Gasly – a Red Bull castoff – joined Alpine at the start of 2023 and was considered 9/4 to outscore his established teammate, Esteban Ocon. He duly caused the upset, finishing the season with 62 points compared to Ocon’s 58.

Based on those scores, the 2024 prices initially appear correct. But a close form-inspection shows Ocon had some terrible luck during the 2023 season – for various reasons, he suffered six retirements, three more than any other driver and five more than Pierre Gasly.

Besides the retirements, Ocon’s median finishing position was vastly superior to Gasly’s. He also claimed more top-10 finishes. Combined, the figures suggest, with a modicum of luck, that Ocon will turn the tables this season and finish ahead of Gasly by a comfortable margin. Resultantly, at 5/6, he is our idea of a good bet.