Flying Sainz Can Podium Behind Runaway Max in Japanese GP
With the Red Bull unable to master Singapore’s Street Circuit, the Milton Keynes team’s winning streak has ended on 15. On-track overtaking may have been scarce, but last Sunday’s race – primarily thanks to Mercedes’s bold and aggressive strategy calls – was more entertaining than anything we have seen in 2023.
The Formula 1 circus has now landed in Suzuka, Japan, for the 16th race of a season that is technically over. The remaining battles are for third in the World Drivers’ Championship – likely to fall to either Lewis Hamilton or Fernando Alonso – and second in the World Constructors’ Championship.
Carlos Sainz was a shock but meritorious winner of last weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix. Driving an improving car, he is expected to take his third consecutive podium finish this Sunday in Japan. ©Ferrari
Ferrari (265 points) and Mercedes (289 points) are the manufacturers hoping to finish second behind a Red Bull team that currently has more than twice the combined points haul of those teams! Mercedes is 2/7 to maintain its second position. The UK’s top Formula 1 betting sites quote the Italian squad on 5/2. And, with seven races of the 2023 season remaining, it looks a fair bet.
Why Points Can Make a 5/2 Prize
World Championship points for driver and team titles are awarded as follows: 25 points to the winner, 18 points to the second and then 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 and 1 for all other drivers finishing in the top-10.
Dissecting how these have been allocated since the sport returned from its summer break makes pleasing reading for Ferrari fans. It also explains why 5/2 represents attractive odds in the ‘without Red Bull’ constructor betting market.
While Mercedes, who saw its star driver, Lewis Hamilton, take third in Singapore, has gained 38 points, Ferrari, with a race win and an additional four top-five finishes, has garnered 74 points.
They have outscored their rivals by a ratio of almost two-to-one and, at the current scoring rate, Ferrari will pass Mercedes in the standings by the conclusion of the United States Grand Prix and with four more races – Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi – remaining.
Ferrari Balanced Out to Unlocked Potential
However, in Formula 1, things are never that straightforward and results from just three races are not a reliable gauge of things to come. Furthermore, had George Russell not crashed on the final lap of last weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix, his team would have been 41 points clear of Ferrari and not 24.
Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz won the race in the small Asian island country. It was his second race start from pole position and complimented his third-place effort in Italy a fortnight earlier. Strikingly, these two brilliant results came at very different circuits demanding massively contrasting car setups.
With Charles Leclerc partnering his Ferrari into fourth position in both races, it would appear the team have addressed balance issues and now have a car that is fulfilling its potential and performing exceptionally at all types of circuit.
Beforehand, Ferrari’s best form came on low-downforce tracks. Nevertheless, its drivers had reached the podium just three times in 26 outings. Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix takes place on a Suzuka Circuit that is categorised as ‘low downforce’, and that is a bonus for the team’s fans.
Set your alarms, this one’s an early one! ⏰
Your all important timings for the Japanese Grand Prix 🇯🇵 pic.twitter.com/S4QeVt99DS
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) September 20, 2023
Japan’s Circuit Strings Them Out
Suzuka holds the distinction of being the only circuit laid out in a figure-of-eight configuration. Consequently, it runs both clockwise and anticlockwise, distributing tyre wear equally. Only 1.2 kilometres of the lap is spent driving in a straight line, meaning Suzuka is one of just four circuits on the calendar with a solitary DRS zone.
With only two heavy braking zones, brakes will have an easier time than at the last two races. This, combined with previous results, suggests – unlike Singapore, where 1.2 seconds separated the first three home – that there will be long gaps between the leading cars at the conclusion of the race.
Hamilton, Bottas and Verstappen won the last three races at Suzuka. All three scored by a margin of more than 12 seconds. Such is the superiority of Red Bull’s Max Verstappen; he is expected to repeat last year’s heroics. He won that shortened 28-lap race by a remarkable 27 seconds!
What Are the Best F1 Bets This Sunday?
The leading motorsports betting sites quote even money on a fourth successive 12 seconds-plus winner. As Verstappen is quoted on 1/3 to take the contest – and he likes to punish his rivals – it looks a great bet.
His teammate, Sergio Perez, trailed in a distant second 12 months ago. Could either Charles Leclerc or Carlos Sainz follow him home this time? It would be an excellent result for those who take our 5/2 betting advice on Ferrari finishing second to Red Bull in the World Drivers’ Championship standings.
The regenerated 2023 Ferrari squad can prove its upswing in form is no flash-in-the-pan, and we expect at least one of their drivers to make the Japanese podium. 11/4 is on offer about either driver finishing in the first three.
Granted his two recent pole positions, a third and a race win, Carlos Sainz should be full of confidence. The form horse, the Spaniard is the one we are pinning our hopes on – and placing our money on.
