F1: Verstappen May Not Win Everything at the Brazilian GP
There is a plethora of betting opportunities on this weekend’s Formula 1 action. The iconic Interlagos Circuit in Sao Paulo will stage a full Grand Prix and a Saturday sprint race. Additionally, there is standard free practice and a qualifying session. It means there is plenty for punters to get their teeth stuck into.
At last weekend’s Mexican Grand Prix the McLaren crew performed a sub two seconds pitstop. They are a 7/2 to produce the fastest pitstop once again this weekend. ©GettyImages
Seeking a 15th race win of the season it is impossible to oppose Max Verstappen. Bookmakers make him 8/11 to win the sprint contest – which dictates the race starting grid – and he is 3/5 to take the 71-lap event on Sunday. Since the French Grand Prix in July, Verstappen and his Red Bull car have been imperious.
Combined, they have taken eight of the nine subsequent races. The only exception was the Singapore Grand Prix – which fell to Sergio Perez who also drives for Red Bull. Nevertheless, the Dutch driver is unlikely to enjoy a clean sweep this weekend, and he can be opposed in some markets.
Getting the Value Out of Opposing Max
The first place to oppose Verstappen is the fastest-lap contest. He is 5/4 to win this particular accolade, but his Red Bull team has leaned towards sacrificing qualifying pace throughout most of the season to have their car better trimmed for the subsequent race.
On Sunday, that race may only be a sprint contest that is 24 laps long. But Verstappen has taken just six pole positions this year. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc has claimed nine from the 20 races staged so far. It is a 45 percent success rate – and on that basis, he should be priced around 11/10 – but the best Formula 1 betting sites have the five-time race winner marked up at 2/1.
Opposing Verstappen in the fastest-lap market is another realistic betting proposition. Some motorsports betting sites have him priced as short as 11/10 in this market. But, once again, the stats protest that this represents no value.
The 25-year-old may have claimed more fastest laps than any other driver on the 2022 grid, but he has still only topped the timesheet five times. With three fastest laps during the current season and a car that is on the improve, George Russell looks the value call at Betfred’s industry top price of 6/1.
Max Can Take His Seventh Wide Margin Win
Our idea of the best bet of the entire weekend presents itself in the winning margin market. This is a three-way offering where under five seconds is priced at 7/4. A winning margin between five and 10 seconds is 9/4, and over ten seconds can be backed at 5/4.
Understanding Max Verstappen is the most likely race winner is to understand why we believe the over 10 seconds scenario is a good bet. This season the two-time world champion has won the French, Spanish, Azerbaijan, Belgian, Japanese and Mexican Grand Prix by over 10 seconds.
Small Stakes Stop-Loss on McLaren Fastest Pitstop
Finally, a wager on the McLaren team to complete the fastest pitstop could provide some entertainment and, hopefully, profit. Last time in Mexico the team became the first of the season to perform a tire change in under two seconds.
The 1.98-second stop for Daniel Ricciardo was the fastest pitstop since Max Verstappen’s 1.88-second stop in the 2021 Hungarian GP. That stop was made when tires and rims were heavier and arguably more awkward.
Essentially the fastest pitstop accolade brings little benefit to a team apart from bragging rights. But McLaren’s pitstop crew is sure to be happy with themselves and may strive to repeat the feat. So far in 2022, they have received DHL’s award for the fastest race pitstop five times. Only Red Bull has done better.
The Best Bets for This Weekend’s São Paulo Grand Prix
- Fastest Qualifier: Charles Leclerc 2/1
- Fastest Race Lap: George Russell 6/1
- Race Winning Margin: 10 seconds-plus 5/4
- Fastest Team Pitstop: McLaren 7/2
