Eight Horses With Claims on the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe
The 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is scheduled to take place in Paris Longchamp on Sunday, October 2nd. Some of the gloss may have been taken off the €5 million contest when the World’s highest-rated turf horse, Baaeed, was announced an absentee. But it will still be an outstanding event with an intriguing international flavor.
Adayar won the 2021 Derby and finished fourth in last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Can he land the 2022 Arc despite having just one 2022 run under his belt? ©BritishChampionSeries
The Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is Europe’s most valuable race. First run in 1920, the contest has been won by some of the sport’s all-time greats including Alleged, Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars and Enable. Last year the German-trained Torquator Tasso was a shock 72/1 winner.
Japan Is Overdue an Arc Success
Germany has won the race three times in total. Italian-trained horses have been successful on six occasions and Ireland has landed the 2,400-meter contest eight times. That is surpassed by the UK with 15 successes which, in turn, is dwarfed by the host nation. French horses have triumphed in Europe’s richest race 68 times.
Remarkably, despite trying for 53 years, Japan has yet to produce a Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner. This year the nation could have four runners in the contest headed by Japanese St Leger winner, Titleholder.
Stats Suggest Find a Filly
The field for the 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will be revealed following the final declarations on Friday, September 30th. Over 90 horses are still officially in the race. The contest is likely to feature between 12 and 16 runners.
Luxembourg – trained in Ireland by Aidan O’Brien – is the early betting favorite with the leading l’Arc de Triomphe sportsbooks.The three-year-old won the Irish Champion Stakes on his most recent start. Three-year-olds have won 18 of the last 28 Arcs but have scored just once in the past six years.
Six of the last ten l’Arc de Triomphe winners have been fillies or mares. It should also be noted four of the last five Arcs have been staged on soft or heavy going. A middle-to-low starting stall has proven to be a big advantage when the going is good or better.
Who Will Win the Arc?
Just two of the last 12 Arc winners started as favorite. But, except for last year’s renewal, all winners since 2010 resided at the top end of the betting. Resultantly, here is our guide to the top-eight horses listed in the betting of the best l’Arc de Triomphe sportsbooks.
Luxembourg 4/1
Unbeaten in three starts as a two-year-old – culminating in Group-One victory in Doncaster’s Futurity Stakes – Luxembourg looked set to play a big hand in the Derby by finishing third in the 2000 Guineas.
Injury scuppered that plan and saw him out of action for over 100 days. Luxembourg returned to scramble home in a Curragh Group-3 contest but ran out an impressive winner of the Irish Champion Stakes at the start of September.
A horse with scope and proven on soft going, Luxembourg has a clear form chance and could give Aidan O’Brien his third l’Arc de Triomphe winner.
Alpinista 7/1
On a sequence of seven consecutive victories – the last five in Group-1 company – the grey mare has an obvious chance. This is also reflected by the odds provided by betting sites which accept £10 bets and other popular sportsbooks in the UK. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott – renowned for his skill of attaining lowly handicap marks for his three-year-olds – has had this race as his mare’s target all year long.
Jockey Luke Morris cannot be described as fashionable or stylish and Prescott believes his charge would be happiest on good ground. Nevertheless, the Yorkshire Oaks winner will make a bold bid no matter what conditions she faces.
Torquator Tasso 8/1
The 2021 Arc winner proved he was not a one-dimensional mud-lark by finishing second in the King George in July. But his final prep-race at Baden-Baden resulted in a disappointing narrow defeat. Eight horses have won the Arc twice. Unless the rain arrives, we do not think he will become the ninth.
Titleholder 9/1
This fascinating Japanese-trained four-year-old is three-from-three this season. Titleholder’s last two victories have been in Group-1 company. They took his career earnings beyond £4.5 million.
Unraced since June – which statistically is a negative as is no experience of racing outside of Japan – Titleholder is an unknown quantity. But the classic winner would appear one of the best horses the country has ever brought to Paris.
Adayar 10/1
The 2021 Epsom Derby winner finished fourth in last year’s Arc. Raced just once this season – winning a three-runner conditions race at Doncaster – it is difficult to know what ability Adayar retains. Trainer Charlie Appleby has yet to win an Arc but has had a phenomenal 12 months at home and abroad.
Onesto 12/1
A hold-up horse with an impressive turn of foot, Onesto has an obvious chance. But the French-trained horse is unproven on soft going and is unlikely to enjoy it. On the right ground – and based on his half-length defeat by Luxembourg in the Irish Champion Stakes – 12/1 would be an outstanding each-way price on race day.
Pyledriver 12/1
The shock 2022 King George winner – beating Torquator Tasso by nearly three lengths – has winning form on all surfaces. A popular horse with two Group-1 victories and £1 million in banked prize money, Pyledriver should not be underestimated.
However, official figures suggest that this 18-race veteran will need his chief rivals to underperform to have a realistic race-winning chance.
La Parisienne 20/1
Went into countless notebooks when third – on soft going – in a notable Arc prep-race, the Prix Vermeille. Denied a clear passage twice, La Parisienne was beaten by just a head in the contest.
Beforehand, La Parisienne had a similar tale of woe when finishing second in the French Oaks. As a three-year-old-filly, the locally-trained horse ticks many statistical boxes and also carries a bottom-weight eight-stones and nine pounds. She is not one rule out and deserves each-way support.
