Dutch Grand Prix: A Safety Car Is a Better Bet Than Max
Last season’s Dutch Grand Prix was a spectacularly boring affair. Twelve months ago, Max Verstappen beat Lewis Hamilton by over 20 seconds. Valterri Bottas was a further 36 seconds back in third. Every other driver in the race was lapped once, twice and, in one case, three times. The first five on the grid finished the race where they started.
Fanatical crowds are guaranteed at the Zandvoort circuit this weekend. Most will be cheering for Dutchman Max Verstappen. ©Jiri Krenek/MercedesF1
Given the dominance displayed by Max Verstappen in recent races – he won last weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix by almost 18 seconds despite starting the race from 14th on the grid – Sunday’s race threatens to be a similarly mind-numbing spectacle.
But weather forecasters have given race fans cause for optimism. They currently predict the likelihood of some rain falling during this weekend’s race as more than 40 percent. A dash to the pits to fit wet-weather tires with the prospect of cars spinning off the track does give some hope for an exciting race.
Safety Market Has Us in a Spin
Does that mean Verstappen can be opposed at the 4/7 the major Formula 1 betting sites currently have him priced? Potentially, but by who? Charles Leclerc does not appeal at his odds of 9/2. The Ferrari driver has stood on a podium step only once in his last nine race starts.
Red Bull’s number two driver, Sergio Perez, can be backed at 10/1. So can the Ferrari number two, Carlos Sainz. Lewis Hamilton is 14/1. His teammate, George Russel, is available at 16/1. Remarkably, the remainder of the field is 250/1 or bigger.
It is hard to see any value in the race-winner market, especially with betting firms only offering positions 1-2 in their each-way terms. However, the Paddy Power sportsbook 1/2 quote on a Safety Car being called into play looks epic.
Naturally, a sudden downpour would be a massive bonus for those that wish to support this proposition. Paddy Power’s rules state the bet will be a winner should the race begin behind a Safety Car – it is something that can and does happen.
Zandvoort Circuit has two 180-degree corners, some steep corkscrew banking, and limited run-off areas. ©MercedesF1
But it is the corkscrew nature of the narrow Zandvoort Circuit – nestled on dunes close to the beach – that makes the likelihood of an incident requiring a Safety Car much greater than the 66 percent the odds suggest. For us, it is a standout bet.
Fastest Is Not the Faster
Last year Lewis Hamilton pitted from a close-up second on the penultimate lap to change tires and make an attempt at the fastest lap of the race. It serves as a reminder of how difficult it is to set the fastest race lap as a race leader at a short-lap tricky circuit.
Max is hungry for success and World Championship points. He could conceivably retain his World Championship crown at Singapore with five races remaining. But will he be in a position to take a late pitstop to apply fresh tires, set the fastest lap and not forfeit a race lead on Sunday?
Anything is possible, and there is no sure way to predict what the future holds. But, at even-money, there is no value in him in the fastest lap betting market. The statistics support this – the Dutchman in four-from-14 in this field this season.
Carlos Sainz could be the better bet in this market. The best sports betting websites quote the Spaniard at 6/1. His Ferrari should be at home at this circuit where the inference is on cornering and not straight-line speed.
In the last six races, he has claimed the fastest lap award twice – in Canada and France. And it is easy to see him taking a late pitstop after his Italian team has used him as a pawn to advance Charles Leclerc’s chances.
Sunday’s Best Formula 1 Bets
Safety Car to be used: 1/2
Fastest Lap: Carlos Sainz: 6/1
