Champions League Round of 16 Second Leg Week 2 – Previews

by Luke Andrews, 12 March 2024

The final Round of 16 games in the Champions League are this week. There are some great fixtures to look forward to, as all the ties are finely balanced. Of the four ties, one game is tied at 1-1, while in the other three, the visiting teams have a slender one-goal lead. Join Luke Andrews as he previews the matches and shares his thoughts on these crucial games.

Our adventures start in London, where, on form, Arsenal welcomes Portuguese giant FC Porto to what is expected to be one of the best games in the Round of 16. The London team hopes that the home advantage will enable them to recover from a 1-0 first-leg defeat.

Barcelona hopes to retain its European status when it welcomes Napoli, who is eyeing just a second appearance in the quarter-finals. Borussia Dortmund welcomes the on-form PSV to Germany while the final fixture is between Atletico Madrid and last year’s runners-up, Inter Milan.

Champions League Betting – Arsenal vs Porto

Arsenal has been in great form, flying to the top of the Premier League table after a 2-1 win against Brentford, making the most of a draw between Manchester City and Liverpool. The confidence should be at their best heading to their most crucial European assignment under Mikel Arteta.

They need to overcome a 1-0 deficit, and notably, they face a historical challenge at this stage. The Gunners have been knocked out of nine out of their last ten Champions League ties in the Round of 16. The sole exception occurred during the 2009-10 season when they managed to advance by defeating Porto with a 5-0 victory in the second leg.

The London side won all their home group stage games with an aggregate score of 12-0, which should raise their prospects for a second quarter-final appearance.

Arsenal is likely to line up in a 4-3-3 formation and have an almost full-strength squad to choose from. Gabriel Martinelli will be a big miss, though, as the Brazilian has been in good form, scoring and assisting in the recent 0-6 hammering of Sheffield United. The only other doubts are Jurriën Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu, but the pair did take part in training on Monday.

Don't doubt the @Arsenal's Kai Havertz 😤 pic.twitter.com/0w2QxkBprd

— Premier League India (@PLforIndia) March 11, 2024

Kai Havertz has scored in three consecutive games and should again lead the line with a good omen, as all his nine goal-scoring appearances have been wins.

Away team top scorer: – Bukayo Saka, anytime goal scorer 29/20 & first goal scorer 9/2.

Porto left it late in the tie’s first leg to carry the advantage into the second leg. They won 3-0 on Friday night to keep pace in the title race, enjoying an extra rest but should deal with the travel fatigue and be ready to face the animosity of a hostile Emirates stadium that would be filled to the brink.

The Portuguese side is in fine form, unbeaten in six games (five wins, one draw) and keeping four clean sheets in this run. History doesn’t favour Porto as they have never won on English soil in twenty-one attempts (eighteen defeats, three draws). They have been eliminated in seven knockout ties against English sides, raising an arduous task to make it to the final eight for the first time since 2020-21.

Porto will likely play a 4-2-3-1 formation, which could provide extra cover at the back to deal with the attacking threat of Leandro Trossard, Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka. Ivan Marcano, Zaidu Sanusi and Mehdi Taremi are all ruled out through injury. Taremi is the most significant loss as he does have the odd goal in him, finding the net six times in 19 games he has started and once when coming on as a substitute.

What's stopping Galeno from scoring tonight?? 😝 #UCL #ARSPOR pic.twitter.com/bWNBFIp0i0

— Nangaye (@Nangaye_0) March 12, 2024

Galeno is a name that will linger in the minds of Arsenal fans for quite some time. After breaking their hearts in the first leg, their concerns should only deepen, as the maestro has scored in three consecutive games.

Away team top scorer: – Francisco Evanilson, anytime goal scorer 11/2 & first goal scorer 16/1.

Selected bets: – Arsenal 1/4, Draw 11/2, Porto 14/1. Over 2.5 8/13, Under 2.5 7/5. BTTS: No 4/6, Yes 13/10.

Luke Andrew’s prediction – 3-0.

Champions League Betting – Barcelona vs Napoli

Barcelona is redeeming itself after three underwhelming seasons in Europe. The five-time Champions League winners could be destined for a first quarter-final appearance since 2019-20 if they can get a good result against Napoli at the Camp Nou.

The Spaniards have a good record of thirteen wins (two draws, one defeat) from sixteen home ties whose promise to take advantage of the 1-1 first leg result. The Catalans are on an eight-game unbeaten run (five wins, three draws), which has seen them close the gap in La Liga leaders Real Madrid with a win 1-0 on Friday night against Mallorca.

Club icon and current manager Xavi Hernandez is poised to depart at the season’s end, aiming to lead his team to secure a Champions League trophy as a memorable farewell gift, marking the end of an impressive tenure.

Barcelona will line up in a 4-3-3 formation, with 35-year-old Robert Lewandowski likely to be their main threat. The Polish international has scored 24 goals in 49 games in all competitions for club and country but hasn’t scored since giving Barcelona the lead in the reverse fixture. The lead only lasted for fifteen minutes before Victor Osimhen levelled things up.

Joao Felix is back scoring for Barcelona ⚽️🇵🇹 pic.twitter.com/j4XZy7aVgW

— LaLigaExtra (@LaLigaExtra) February 29, 2024

Joao Felix scored the opening goal or the final goal in seven of the eight scoring games he has featured in the Champions League.

Home team top scorer: – Robert Lewandowski, anytime goal scorer 11/8 & first goal scorer 21/5

Napoli made it to the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time last season and is keen to match that achievement this year. They managed a late equaliser to secure a draw in Spain, setting up a neutral encounter. However, their away record is concerning, with five losses in their last six away games (and only one win).

The Italian champions are on a six-match unbeaten run (two wins, four draws) with a formidable fighting spirit coming from behind to avoid defeat in three games. Francesco Calzona managed his side to their most significant win margin on the road when they triumphed over Sassuolo 6-1 in their last away match. They hope they can continue their impressive form on the road.

Napoli are likely to play a 4-3-3 formation as they did in the first leg, which could make for an entertaining match. The hosts have Raphinha, Pedri, Marcos Alonso, Gavi, Frenkie de Jong, Ferran Torres, Alejandro Balde all out injured, as Inter only have Jens Cajuste and Cyril Ngonge as doubts, the Italians have a potential advantage.

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BREAKING:

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is a big Target for Ineos at Manutd This Summer!!#MUFC

pic.twitter.com/RYyMJtFpun

— Manutd Addicts (@Manutd_addicts) February 20, 2024

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has been a revelation since he joined the Italian side and has the magic in his feet to produce moments of brilliance in front of the goal. He had won all the twenty games he had scored until Friday when they drew 1-1 against Torino.

Away team top scorer: – Victor Osimhen, anytime goal scorer 29/13 & first goal scorer 9/4.

Selected bets: – Barcelona 10/11, Draw 14/5, Napoli 16/5. Over 2.5 10/13, Under 2.5 11/10. BTTS: No 6/5, Yes 4/6.

Luke Andrew’s prediction – 2-1.

Champions League Betting – Atletico Madrid vs inter Milan

Atletico Madrid, a team with a strong track record in the UEFA Champions League, is participating in their ninth Round of sixteen in the last eleven seasons. However, they face a challenge as they head into the match in Madrid with a 1-0 deficit against the Italian team. Diego Simeone is expected to lead an aggressive strategy to overcome this disadvantage.

The Madrid side hasn’t been at their best in recent weeks, losing five (two wins, one draw), including a 2-0 defeat against Cadiz, who are battling against relegation. Los Colchoneros has lost just once (eighteen wins, one draw) in twenty games at the Metropolitano Stadium, including wins in all three group-stage games.

Likely to play in a 3-5-2 formation to provide steel at the back, the Spaniards are without the ever-dangerous Antoine Griezmann and will instead go with Marcos Llorente (six goals) and Álvaro Morata (29 goals in all competitions).

Alvaro Morata made a lot of people happy on this day 😅🇪🇸 pic.twitter.com/NFwNRTtwFo https://t.co/LlL3GPNTav

— LaLigaExtra (@LaLigaExtra) March 11, 2024

Alvaro Morata has been on the winning side in the three goal-scoring encounters against Inter Milan, with the attacker regular in the referee’s notebook with six yellow cards in fourteen head-to-head games.

Home team top scorer: – Alvaro Morata, anytime goal scorer 29/13 & first goal scorer 28/5.

While the Spaniards struggle for form, the Italians are oozing greatness and are at the top of the Italian league. They have progressed from forty-two of the forty-six UEFA knockout ties when they won the first leg at home.

Inter Milan have won the last thirteen consecutive games and won’t be distracted with proceedings in the league as they have a sixteen-point cushion at the top of the Serie A. The previous year’s finalists have a record of six consecutive wins on the road, keeping a shutout in four.

They aren’t great at starting games, as they have scored late goals (after the seventh minute) to level the score in two of their previous three Champions League games after conceding first. As they are also expected to play in a 3-5-2, the counterattack is likely to be crucial for both sides.

“Inter are unbeaten in their last fifteen games and face Atletico, who are inconsistent at the moment. Although the Italians have failed in their last ten away trips to the country, I’ll be backing them at 19/12 to scrape through here.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

If Alexis Sanchez wins the league with Inter this season he will have more Serie A trophies than Kaka. ⚫️🔵⭐️⭐️ pic.twitter.com/ihW9n5ooLb

— #ELJARDINERO 🇵🇸 (@J4FN1_) March 5, 2024

Alexis Sanchez has made four goal contributions (one goal, three assists) in the previous four games, scoring the last away goal for the Italians.

Away team top scorer: – Lautaro Martinez, anytime goal scorer 2/1 & first goal scorer 5/1 with Betiton.

Selected bets: – Atletico Madrid 2/1, Draw 12/5, Inter Milan 19/12. Over 2.5 11/10, Under 2.5 4/5. BTTS: No 21/20, Yes 20/23.

Luke Andrew’s prediction – 1-2.

Champions League Betting – Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven

Borussia Dortmund returned from the Netherlands with a 1-1 draw against PSV Eindhoven, taking a slight advantage into their upcoming home game. Edin Terzic is aware that they are not the clear favourites to win the competition, which would guarantee immediate qualification.

They could be in a dilemma as their qualification for next year’s edition hangs in the balance despite winning two consecutive Bundesliga games. The home side’s formidable unbeaten record in the last two editions (three wins, four draws) could boost their confidence in reaching the quarter-finals for the first time since the 2020-21 season.

The Germans have been inconsistent in their home performances, winning twice in six games (two draws, two defeats). They are likely to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation with Niclas Füllkrug as the main avenue of attack. The 31-year-old has been in good form, scoring 21 goals in all competitions. In the Bundesliga, he has had 19 goal involvements (11 goals and eight assists) in 21 starts.

6 goals in 7 games for Donyell Malen in 2024. pic.twitter.com/mEXeCervJP

— ari (@aritrabvb1909) March 9, 2024

Donyell Malen was suspended over the weekend and should be fresh to continue his impressive run of form, as he had scored in all three games.

Home team top scorer: – Niclas Fullkrug, anytime goal scorer 17/10 & first goal scorer 11/2.

PSV have been formidable this season; reaching the final eight would give them the right avenue to display their perfection. The 4-0 defeat against Arsenal and 1-0 loss against Feyenoord is the only two defeats the side has seen over the previous thirty-nine games (twenty-nine wins, eight draws).

Although their form is impressive, they are not favourites to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the first time since the 2006-07 season. Peter Boaz has to motivate his side, failing to win in three notable fixtures this year against Feyenoord (1-0 defeat). Ajax (1-1 draw), and Utrecht (1-1).

Former Sevilla striker Luuk de Jong against Real Madrid back in the 19/20 season. ☄️🇳🇱pic.twitter.com/5uB8ioNlVw

— LaLigaExtra (@LaLigaExtra) February 25, 2024

The arduous task ahead would be to get a win, and all eyes will be on Luuk de Jong, who has bagged thirty-one goals this season with ten goal involvements (eight goals, two assists) in the Champions League (including playoffs). Jong will likely play in the centre, with PSV employing a 4-3-3 formation.

Away team top scorer: – Luuk de Jong, anytime goal scorer 2/1 & first goal scorer 6/1.

Selected bets: – Borussia Dortmund 8/7, Draw 37/13, PSV Eindhoven 12/5. Over 2.5 8/13, Under 2.5 7/5. BTTS: No 6/4, Yes 4/7.

Luke Andrew’s prediction – 2-1.

In their impressive run of form, Arsenal should follow up their incredible run with a win against Porto, especially at home. Barcelona has a challenging task against Napoli, but with the announcement of Xavi’s departure, they have been excellent. They should have the cutting edge to see off the reigning Italian Champions.

Dortmund has been struggling for form and will have a challenging task against PSV on an elongated, unbeaten run. Inter Milan against Atletico Madrid feels like the tie you can’t miss as both sides would bring their best game, and I predict a narrow win for the Italians.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.