Champions League Round of 16 First Leg Week 2 – Previews

by Luke Andrews, 20 February 2024

The final four games of the first leg in the Champions League round of sixteen feature this week. Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, analyses all four games that should provide excellent entertainment this week. At the Round of 16 stage, there are no easy ties, but there could be plenty of surprises as one mistake can change the outcome of a match.

The Champions League round of sixteen first leg has four games left. Atletico Madrid will travel to Italy to face last year’s finalists and leaders of the Serie A, Inter Milan at the San Siro.

High-flying Arsenal, currently the most in-form team in Europe’s top five leagues, will travel to Portugal to face FC Porto, hoping to carry their league excellence to the Champions League. It will be an all-champions affair when last season’s Spanish League winners meet reigning Italian Champions Napoli in Naples. Dutch giants PSV welcome Borussia Dortmund in our final game of what is promising to be an exciting midweek encounter.

Champions League Betting – Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid

Inter Milan, the runners-up of last season’s Champions League, have been in fine form in the Italian league. They hope they can carry the form to the European competition and go one better to win a title they lost by a single goal.

The Nerazurri are a team in fine form, unbeaten in the last ten games (nine wins, one draw), and they went through the group stage unbeaten (winning three, drawing three). They come into the midweek encounter in great attacking form, having bagged four past Salernitana on Friday.

There will be a great relief in beginning the Round of sixteen tie at home as the Italians are unbeaten in eight straight games (six wins, two draws).

They, however, have not been excellent against Spanish opposition in six home games where they have won just once (two draws, three defeats).

GOAL OF THE DAY (Gol del día para los que no saben inglés)

Lautaro Martínez silenciando el Putitas Metropolitano y mandando al Atlético de Madrid a su competición fetiche, la Europa League💙🖤

pic.twitter.com/oCUaTei7jP

— Inter 🌐 (@Inter_ess) February 20, 2024

Lautaro Martinez has been on fire this season with twenty-five goal involvements (twenty-three goals, two assists).

Home team top scorer: – Lautaro Martinez (two goals), anytime goal scorer 13/8 & first goal scorer 4/1.

Decorated Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone will be in the opposite dugout with ex-Lazio teammate Simone Inzaghi. The Spaniards have had one less day of rest but an exciting weekend where they thumped Las Palmas 5-0 to end a three-game winless run (one draw, two defeats).

Atletico were in the same group as Italian side Lazio, where they drew 1-1 at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. The Colchoneros beat AC Milan at the San Siro in the 2021-22 campaign, which built their confidence ahead of their first meeting against Inter, which would not be held in a neutral round. The Spanish side won the UEFA Super Cup in 2010 (2-0) but lost (1-0) their most recent match in the International Champions Cup.

Marcos Llorente scored a brace in the first twenty minutes to set his side up for victory over the weekend. He will be full of confidence to produce an auxiliary source of goals from the midfield.

Away team top scorer: – Alvaro Morata (five goals), anytime goal scorer 17/5 & first goal scorer 8/1.

Selected bets: – Inter 4/5, Draw 13/5, Atletico Madrid 17/4. Over 2.5 6/5, Under 2.5 8/11. BTTS: No 4/5, Yes 11/10.

Champions League Betting – PSV vs Dortmund

PSV would be delighted to play in the knockout phase of the Champions League for the first time since the 2015-16 season, which is just their second time in seventeen campaigns.

The Dutch side has been in impressive home form, winning three of their last four (one draw) to move on top of the Eredivisie. Furthermore, in Europe, they boast a better record of just one home defeat in eleven games (winning seven, drawing three).

The Philips Stadion should live up to expectations as Dortmund’s home crowd has a reputation for being the most hostile; thus, home advantage should give them milage in the tie.

German opposition has proven challenging for PSV in thirty-seven ties; the home team has had ten wins (seven draws, twenty defeats).

No He REALLY JOINED PSV i'M TALKING ABOUT LUKE de jong pic.twitter.com/tUD3hjU4e4

— Xfootball (@Xfootballofc1) July 2, 2022

Luke De Jong has scored seven of his last eight goals at home, including one in a 2-0 win against Heracles.

Home team top scorer: – Luuk de Jong (two goals), anytime goal scorer 6/4 &first goal scorer 9/2

Dortmund won and drew in the previous two games against PSV, which boasts their record against Dutch opposition to three wins in eleven (three draws, five defeats). Despite their struggles in the league, falling further from the Bundesliga title race, the Prussians would be confident in their European adventures, having come on top of the group of death against top sides such as AC Mila, PSG, and Newcastle United.

Manager Edin Terzic will guide Dortmund to a fifth round of 16 ties in six years despite being eliminated at this stage three of the previous four times. Their away record was impressive, winning twice (one defeat) in the group stage, significantly improving their sixteen losses in thirty-two European away games (ten wins, six draws).

Niclas Fullkrug has been the talisman for the German side, scoring over the weekend in a 1-1 draw against Wolfsburg, his fourth in the previous five outings.

Away team top scorer: – Karim Adeyemi (two goals), anytime goal scorer 18/5 & first goal scorer 11/1.

Selected bets: – PSV 23/20, Draw 11/4, Dortmund 68/29. Over 2.5 4/6, Under 2.5 11/8. BTTS: No 13/8, Yes 4/7.

Champions League Betting – FC Porto vs Arsenal

FC Porto won the UEFA Champions League under the guidance of a young Jose Mourinho. It has been an arduous voyage for the Dragons since then, as they have lost all the seven two-legged ties they have played against the English side.

The first leg will be played at home, which presents their best opportunity to take advantage as the Portuguese side has never triumphed in England in twenty-one games (three draws, eighteen defeats).

In the previous nine games, they have lost eight; thus, playing in their fortress, the Estadio de Dragao, presents the best opportunity for Sergio Conceicao if they want to win the tie.

🇧🇷 Galeno (22) in the Portuguese League for FC Porto this season:

19 Matches
14 Starts
2 Goals
3 Assists
1 Dribble per Game

🌎 The Best U40 Winger in the World. pic.twitter.com/EE7WhT7ZRH

— Danillas (@dany09123) February 14, 2024

Galeno scored and assisted in their 2-0 win over the weekend; the Golden Boot contestant has seven goal involvements (four goals, three assists) in five games.

Home team top scorer: – Wenderson Galeno (four goals), anytime goal scorer 13/2 & first goal scorer 14/1.

Arsenal is the team in form in Europe on a run of five consecutive wins, scoring five or more goals in three of the five games. They have an aggregate of 11-0 in their previous two games on the road, with their form reigniting their title charge, and could even be spicier if they can challenge for the Champions League.

The London side has seven consecutive eliminations in the Champions League round of sixteen. Ironically, the last time they progressed from this stage; they beat FC Porto but lost in Portugal in the first leg in 2009-10. The Gunners have one win from nine trips, with their saving grace an impressive European away form, having lost just three (winning twelve, drawing five).

Banking on current form, Mikel Arteta would be favourites, but the English side are the second lowest scorers in the group stage, with their four goals only eclipsed by Real Sociedad.

“Arsenal are very much dark horses for European glory this year, with most of the expectations on Manchester City. This stage has been a hurdle too far on many occasions, but I expect them to progress. I’ll be betting on Saka getting on the scoresheet in this game.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Bakayo Saka is oozing confidence with six goals in four games and would be a thorn in the Portuguese defence. and has three goals so far in the Champions League, just one behind Jesus.

Away team top scorer: – Gabriel Jesus (four goals), anytime goal scorer 3/1 &first goal scorer 15/2 with BetTarget.

Selected bets: – Porto 9/2, Draw 14/5, Arsenal 7/10. Over 2.5 42/41. Under 2.5 5/6. BTTS: No 20/23, Yes 39/40.

Champions League Betting – Napoli vs Barcelona

The European battle between the reigning champions of Italy and Spain should have pulses racing in one of the Round of 16 most anticipated encounters. However, both teams have a thick cloud of uncertainty in their managerial positions, with Napoli playing under interim boss Walter Mazzarri, whom Slovakia manager Francesco Calzona will soon replace.

They needed a late goal to draw against Genoa to sit ninth and raise more concern over their European qualification credentials for the following season.

They are nine points away from fourth-placed Atlanta and twenty-seven behind league leaders Inter Milan. Partenopei hopes to progress from this stage for their second time, having won just two of their previous sixteen meetings with Spanish opposition (five draws, nine defeats).

🇮🇹Giovanni Di Lorenzo Vs Genoa

45 minutes
45/52 passes completed (87%)
2 chances created
1/2 dribbles completed
7 passes into final third
1 block
2/3 duels won pic.twitter.com/AIZ7iEsOfU

— Napoli Zone (@TheNapoliZone) February 17, 2024

Napoli captain Giovanni Di Lorenzo provided an assist to increase his tally to nine goal contributions (two goals, seven assists) and has to inspire his side to get a result, especially at home.

Home team top scorer: – Victor Osimhen (one goal), anytime goal scorer 13/8 & first goal scorer 5/1.

A third meeting between the two sides in the knockout, with the Catalans winning the last two. Barcelona is on an impressive domestic run of four games unbeaten (three wins, one draw) that put the pressure on their manager Xavi, but they trail Real Madrid by eight points. That means they must put all their focus on their European adventures, especially that the finals would be played at Wembley, which feels like a good sign as they have won the Champions League twice at this stadium.

Progress seems far from a straightforward accomplishment, as the Spanish giants have won just one of their previous ten knockout games on the road (drawing four, losing five). Robert Lewandowski has four goals in his last three games, having shaken off a poor spell to get back to his best.

Away team top scorer: – Ferran Torres (three goals), anytime goal scorer 10/3 & first goal scorer 9/1.

Selected bets: – Napoli 9/5, Draw 13/5, Barcelona 31/20. Over 2.5 4/5, Under 2.5 11/10. BTTS: No 11/8, Yes 5/8.

The upcoming midweek games promise to be thrilling, with matchups that are sure to captivate fans. The removal of the away goal rule levels the playing field, allowing teams to have an equal opportunity to succeed in both legs and offering a chance to come back even if they underperform in the first match.

Given their impressive current form, Arsenal should capitalise on their match against Portugal. The game between Dortmund and PSV is anticipated to be closely contested, with both teams having a fair shot at victory. However, Dortmund’s strong performance in the group stage might boost their confidence to secure a win.

The champions of Italy and Spain are set to face off in a challenging encounter that starts in Italy. Despite the tough competition, Barcelona will likely have a slight edge in advancing. Lastly, Inter Milan, currently leading the Italian league, will go up against an Atletico team that comes off a 5-0 victory from their last game, setting the stage for a formidable clash between two powerhouses.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.