Champions League 6: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 12 December 2023

The 2023-24 season’s final group matches in Europe’s most prestigious tournament are upon us. Luke Andrews examines the groups, focusing on those whose qualification hinges on the last kick. He has highlighted four of the most thrilling matches that promise to intensify as we approach the knockout stage.

The Champions League group stage has produced endless action from the best teams in Europe. Manchester United welcome Bayern Munich hoping for a win and a draw from the Copenhagen vs Galatasaray encounter. Quite a drastic turn of events with their fate not in their hands as whoever wins between the Danish and the Turks qualifies as the second-best team.

Manchester City is embroiled in a futile encounter against Red Star Belgrade with the group already settled and City already qualified.

The climax of our analysis features a highly anticipated match between Newcastle and the seven-time European champions, AC Milan. Although Dortmund has already secured their qualification, their upcoming game against PSG will be crucial in determining the final standings of the group. It will be intriguing to see how the scenario unfolds, with both Newcastle and AC Milan eagerly seeking a victory that could pave their way to qualification.

Champions League Betting – Manchester United vs Bayern Munich

Manchester United don’t have their destiny in their hands after a disappointing campaign.

Even a win against the group leaders Bayern won’t guarantee their qualification as they need the game against Galatasaray and Copenhagen to end level.

Erik Ten Hag would be disappointed with the campaign winning just once, drawing one and losing three.

They gave away a 3–1 lead against Galatasaray that would have set themselves for qualification and come to this encounter on the back of a 3–0 defeat against Bournemouth. The weekend defeat by three goals was the third in their last five home games, having conceded three goals or more in four of the previous five Champions League games.

The Red Devils made the job challenging and will have to bring their best game against the German Champions, who are genuine contenders for the European trophy.

A positive stat is that Manchester United are unbeaten at Old Trafford in the last eleven games (winning eight and drawing three). Rasmus Hojlund is the Champions League joint top scorer and scored a brace in the first match against Bayern.

Home team top scorer: Rasmus Hojlund – Anytime goal scorer 9/5 &first goal scorer 6/1.

Bayern Munich sits at the top of the group and has already qualified. They had an explosive start to the season, especially in the Champions League, that set them up in a strong position to qualify.

Their weekend performance in the league, losing 5–1 against Eintracht Frankfurt, would have Thomas Tuchel worried. It would be interesting to see how the German manager would set up his side to demand a reaction or to rest most of the key players who are already qualified.

The German champions are determined to maintain their impressive record of thirty-nine unbeaten games in the Champions’ League group stages, a streak they are not likely to relinquish easily. This comes especially after their seventeen-game winning run in the group stages was interrupted by a goalless draw against Copenhagen.

In Bayern’s 4–3 victory over United, Harry Kane was a standout performer, scoring and assisting. He remains a player to watch, given his notable career in England

Away team top scorer: Harry Kane – Anytime goal scorer 6/5 & first goal scorer 4/1.

Selected bets: Manchester United 17/10, Draw 31/10, Bayern Munich 29/20. Over 2.5 13/25, Under 2.5 18/11, BTTS: No 15/8, Yes 12/25.

“Betting on Manchester United at the moment is like betting on a coin toss! As I’m unsure which Manchester United will turn up, I’m backing Harry Kane in the goalscorers market. The former Tottenham man is 9/2 to score two and 20/1 to claim the match ball.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Champions League Betting – FC Copenhagen vs Galatasaray

FC Copenhagen and Galatasaray head to the final match of the Champions League, knowing a win for either side guarantees their qualification for the knockout phase. The Denmark outfit has the advantage of playing at home and ahead of their visitors in goal difference, meaning a draw and lousy result for Manchester United would guarantee qualification.

They have a perfect record against Turkish opposition, winning 100% of their games (four wins), they will be hoping they can keep up their outstanding performances. Their wins include a 1–0 against their visitors at this stadium in 2013, but they have been in poor form, especially at home, with just two wins in eight (five draws, one defeat).

They sit second in their league, three points off the leaders, with a shaky record winless in three games (one draw, two defeats).

Elias Achouri has all four goals coming on home soil and is the only player to score for the Danish side since they won 4 – 3 in the Champions League against Manchester United.

Home team top scorer: Mohammed Elyounuossi – Anytime goal scorer 3/1 & first goal scorer 10/1.

Galatasaray has nothing to lose; thus, we expect they will start the game on the front foot, looking for a win that would be the only result that would be beneficial for them. The Turkish have never won on Danish soil, losing one and drawing one with an extended record in the Champions League of just one win, three draws, and fifteen defeats, relinquishing their qualification hopes. Their recent form of just two defeats in eleven European games (six wins, three draws) included a 3–2 win against Manchester United.

Their squad depth is a significant advantage, with strong substitutes capable of impacting the game. This was evident when they rallied from a 3–1 deficit to secure a 3–3 draw against Manchester United, setting the stage for an exciting conclusion to their campaign.

Kopenhagı bana bırakın demiş.. Hâkim Ziyech 🖤 pic.twitter.com/qDnrGrArPR

— Emre (@Emreleox) December 12, 2023

Hakim Ziyech scored twice in the draw against United, but their defence takes the credit as they have conceded just two goals in four of their last five away Champions League games, including qualifiers.

Away team top scorer: Mauro Icardi – Anytime goal scorer 29/20 & first goal scorer 5/1.

Selected bets: Copenhagen 9/5. Draw 35/12, Galatasaray 29/20. Over 2.5 8/13, Under 2.5 11/8. BTTS: No 17/10, yes 8/15.

Champions League Betting – FK Crvena Zvezda vs Manchester City

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Group C is done and dusted with the teams destined to finish in the same position they started with and would just be playing for pride. Red Star Belgrade sits at the group’s bottom with just one point. They have a tough test, looking for their first win in the campaign against the group winners, Manchester City.

The main positive for the hosts will be that their visitors have already won the group and, with trouble in the league campaign and injuries, could field a lighter side to see off the match.

Playing at their fortress, the Rajko Mitic would be tremendously positive, with just one defeat here in twenty-eight games (twenty-three wins, four draws).

Osman Bukari has been the first goal-scorer in three of his side’s last four goal-scoring games and was on the scoresheet in their 3–1 defeat at the Etihad.

Home team top scorer: Home team top scorer Oscar Bobb – Anytime goal scorer 13/5 & first goal scorer 8/1.

Manchester City sits comfortably at the top of their Champions League table for a seventh consecutive European season.

Pep Guardiola has nothing but pride to play for as well, as they have already qualified and thus will be banking on a perfect campaign, having won all five games in the competition.

The Citizens have an excellent record with two defeats in the last thirty-four Champions League group games (twenty-six wins, six draws) and are favourites. They hope to preserve a precious nineteen-game unbeaten run in European competitions (fourteen wins, five draws), an English record.

Pep Guardiola has decisions to make, especially with their Premier League campaign slipping away from their grip and injuries; thus, his squad selection would be interesting, especially as they face much travelling over Christmas.

They fought hard for a 2–1 win against Luton Town, deeply documenting their troubles, which stands as two wins in six games (three draws, one defeat).

Julian Alvarez plays football today!! pic.twitter.com/HTGd1EBwot

— 𝓚 🇦🇷🕷 (@kevinball_10) December 6, 2023

In the absence of last season’s Champions League top scorer, Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez has a great chance to prove his worth in the team.

Away team top scorer:Erling Haaland – Anytime goal scorer 8/11 & first goal scorer 8/1.

Selected bets: Crvena Zvezda 8/1, Draw 5/1, Manchester City 4/11. Over 2.5 5/9, Under 2.5 23/15. BTTS: No 21/20, Yes 7/8.

Champions League Betting – Newcastle United vs AC Milan

Group F of the Champions League has been the most exciting group, full of intense action that is going right to the final game.

Newcastle will play AC Milan with only a win that guarantees them a slot in the knockout phase as they are both on five points, two points behind the French Champions, PSG.

The Magpies lost to a late controversial penalty that now has them at the mercy of Dortmund, who will play PSG but need a win to ascertain their qualification hopes.

Eddie Howe would be proud of his first challenge in the most significant competition in Europe. Still, his recent form of two successive defeats, losing 3–0 against Everton and 4–1 against Spurs, feels like a dark cloud heading to the most decisive match of his career.

Antony Gordon has scored in three home games in each of his sides, with his goals coming in the second period.

Home team top scorer: Miguel Almiron – Anytime goal scorer 14/5 & first goal scorer 8/1.

The seven-time European Champions have the same chances for qualification as their hosts with the fate in their hands before looking at the result of the PSG vs Dortmund match.

Stefano Pioli would be delighted with his side’s great fight, coming from behind twice despite losing 3–2 in the last game against Atlanta. The Italians have a poor record against English opposition, with just one win in twelve encounters (three draws, eight defeats).

AC Milan had a great chance of dominating their opponents in the opening group match, which would have set them up in a strong position, but they didn’t make the most of their chances. The Italian giants are now winless in twenty-two of the last thirty European games, which is quite an undesirable statistic heading to this encounter.

They have scored just one goal in their previous five travels and will be hoping Oliver Giroud is in top form as he is unbeaten against their hosts.

NA MINHA CASA SERVIMOS OLIVER GIROUD.
LINDO TESAO BONITO E GOSTOSAO pic.twitter.com/pqMD28TyLp

— Machado (@Femachado09) December 9, 2023

The French attacker and World Cup winner has lost just once in fifteen games against Newcastle (winning thirteen and drawing once) and has eleven goal involvements (nine goals, two assists).

Away team top scorer: Oliver Giroud – Anytime goal scorer 11/4 & first goal scorer 8/1.

Selected bets: Newcastle United 10/11 with bet365, Draw 3/1, AC Milan 16/5. Over 2.5 4/5, Under 2.5 13/12. BTTS: No 6/5, yes 3/4.

The last round of the Champions League group stages promises thrilling matches filled with non-stop action. Manchester United might rue the missed opportunity of squandering a two-goal lead to end up with a 3–3 draw against Galatasaray, which could have significantly bolstered their chances of qualification. Their progression hangs in the balance as they rely on outcomes from other group matches, making their upcoming game a particularly challenging encounter.

Newcastle might feel hard done by the penalty decision in their match against PSG, a call that significantly altered the dynamics of their group. Now, they face a crucial final match with their destiny squarely in their own hands. To secure progression, they need to win and claim all three points, while also keeping an eye on the outcome of the concurrent match between Dortmund and PSG.

With their qualification already secured, Manchester City will be playing for records and pride in their upcoming match. With them facing the group’s bottom team, it’s difficult to envision them losing. This match will be an exciting football encounter, adding a high-energy highlight to the midweek games.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.com and WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.