Champions League 2023/24 Golden Boot Odds & Predictions
The Champions League is a competition that brings together the most elite teams in Europe to challenge for what is regarded as the most prestigious prize in club football. Today, I’ll look at the players who could make a mark in this year’s edition of the European competition by scoring the highest number of goals and picking up the coveted Golden Boot award.
I’ll start looking at the current situation, with three games having been played in this year’s tournament. I’ll also look back at some of the players who have dominated the award and then at the players who have a chance to win this campaign’s Golden Boot. Then, I’ll assess the odds when Champions League betting for the players who could win the Golden Boot this campaign and what impact winning the award has on a player’s career, and finally give my verdict on who will win it.
Champions League 2023/24 Top Scorer – The Current Scenario
The 2023-24 Champions League Golden Boot (also known as the Golden Shoe) race is expected to be a tight affair, with the most extraordinary talents in Europe contesting for the pride of being named the greatest.
Erling Haaland topped the goal-scoring charts last campaign, leading his side to a treble, including their first Champions League title.
There have been numerous breakthrough stars in this year’s campaign for the most prestigious award.
The top scorers for the 2023/24 season are Julian Alvarez, Rasmus Hojlund, Evanilson, Gabriel Jesus, Brais Mendez, and Jude Bellingham, who are all tied on three goals. All signs show this would be a heavily contested award, with five players already on three goals.
| Champions League 2023/24 Golden Boot Odds – The Five Favourites | |
|---|---|
| Player Name | Odds |
| Erling Haaland | 11/10 |
| Harry Kane | 3/1 |
| Kylian Mbappe | 4/1 |
| Julian Alvarez | 15/1 |
| Robert Lewandowski | 15/1 |
Champions League 2023/24 Top Scorer Prospects – Erling Haaland
The bookies have Erling Haaland as the outright favourite to win a second successive Champions League Golden Boot award. The Norwegian excelled under the blankets of Kevin De Bruyne, who was sidelined with an injury. The Belgian has an excellent eye for creating goals that made Haaland improve his game and score loads of goals to win the Premier League and the Champions League golden boots by a landslide.
Grateful for the Gerd Müller award and congratulations to @ManCity for best club of the year. Thank you to all my team-mates, the club staff and all fans for making it all possible 🏆 #ballondor #tropheegerdmuller pic.twitter.com/gW0RAl7Ivl
— Erling Haaland (@ErlingHaaland) October 31, 2023
Haaland hasn’t flourished as expected in his absence, netting only two goals. However, he remains as lethal as ever, serving as the team’s primary penalty-taker and one of the world’s premier attackers. The maestro requires only a couple of standout performances, potentially dominating opposing teams with multiple goals, to position himself favourably in the race for the award
Champions League 2023/24 Top Scorer Prospects – Harry Kane
Harry Kane made the most iconic move of his career from Tottenham Hotspur to Bayern Munich. In 2023, Kane’s transfer to Bayern Munich marked a milestone, setting a new record as the Bundesliga’s priciest acquisition with a staggering €110 million fee.
Like Bellingham, the change of clubs has been an upgrade to a player who was already on top of his game.
Playing for Bayern carries a certain prestige that can psychologically intimidate opponents. Therefore, we anticipate a player of the Three Lions captain’s skill and talent to not only dominate opposing teams but also to be a strong contender for the Golden Boot.
Kane feels like the missing puzzle of an already complete squad; his presence in the team compliments the German champions to become one of the favourites to win the trophy.
Champions League 2023/24 Top Scorer Prospects – Kylian Mbappe
I don’t need to say much about the PSG attacker. Mbappe is the remnant of a majestic trio, with Lionel Messi and Neymar departing the French Champions. The mantle now rests on the shoulders of Kylian Mbappe, who has matured in his gameplay. Having led his country to a World Cup title at a young age, expectations are high for him to be the star player leading PSG to their first Champions League title.
Champions League 2023/24 Top Scorer Prospects – Julian Alvarez
Manchester City’s goal-scoring adventures have revolved around Haaland, who performed exceptionally well last campaign. The 2023-24 edition has a new star in the Citizens ranks in World Cup winner Alvarez.
Ever since the World Cup-winning exploits for Argentina, where the maestro started behind Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez but broke through the ranks to become a regular starter and an important figure playing an integral part in their triumph.
He has stepped up his game with his versatility and resilience to play as a striker and an attacking midfielder, making the most of the increased play time covering up for the injured Kevin De Bruyne.
Julian Alvarez has no weak foot. 🇦🇷🕷️ pic.twitter.com/44OVFj7q7e
— AndyMadridista (@LosBlancosftbl) October 31, 2023
With all the attention focused on marking Haaland, Alvarez is proving to be even more lethal. Their competition with each other is elevating their gameplay.
The twenty-three-year-old Argentine already has three goals and has been the most lethal dangerman for Pep Guardiola with pace, excellent dribbling skills, and his instinctive finish in front of goal, making him the most likely contender ahead of Erling Haaland for Manchester City.
Champions League 2023/24 Top Scorer Prospects – Jude Bellingham
We have known the England international to be a promising star since he stepped into the football scene for Birmingham before the big-money move to Dortmund for a record fee for a seventeen-year-old.
The most remarkable and surprising transfer was Real Madrid’s move for over one hundred million, especially since they had not shown interest in the player in the previous window. A career-defining move for the English maestro as he has stepped up his game, becoming a star for club and country; he tops the La Liga scoring charts with eight goals and the Champions League with three goals.
He has advanced his play style to resemble Real Madrid legend Zinedine Zidane, and with how things are shaping up, he is destined to be a Real Madrid legend. Many laughed when Birmingham City retired Bellingham’s shirt when he moved to Germany. If he continues on his incredible trajectory, the Midland’s outfit may consider retiring the whole club.
Champions League 2023/24 Top Scorer Prospects – Evanilson
For a player who can score three goals in a game, repeating the same excellence in the next few games will make him untouchable. The Brazilian scored a hat-trick off the bench against Royal Antwerp, guiding his side from a goal down to triumph 4 – 1. He is the fresh talent on the list, and an excellent performance puts him on the map and course for a big summer move if he can keep up his goal-scoring exploits. The fact that people don’t know much about him makes him a lethal threat against defences.
The 23-year-old has played only 284 minutes of football this season, yet he has scored five goals, averaging more than a goal per hour!
Champions League 2023/24 Top Scorer Prospects – Rasmus Hojlund
The Manchester United attacker has stormed to an explosive career at Old Trafford. With three goals already in the Champions League, he has eclipsed some of their most consistent performers, such as Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial, to become their most reliable and productive man in front of goal.
Despite this, the youngster is yet to score a Premier League goal for his new club, and with United struggling both at home and in Europe, backing Hojlund to win the Golden Boot is an extremely risky bet.
Champions League 2023/24 Top Scorer Prospects – Gabriel Jesus
In Arsenal’s return to the Champions League, they have been exceptional in possession and delivering excellent performance. In a knockout tournament like this, Arsenal’s number nine has stepped up and started providing goals and is already tied top scorer with three goals. The way the Gunners play makes him an exciting prospect to be a regular scorer, and he is a real contender for the award.
Endrick e Gabriel Jesus. pic.twitter.com/UxHXcz7TmX
— HV (@endrickista) November 2, 2023
All the players on three goals alongside our two top picks are genuine contenders, and one good game can change the landscape of the rankings, especially heading to the second phase of games, where teams will have their second leg after testing each other in the opening round. Analysing a player’s performance in the Champions League Golden Boot goes far beyond how many goals he scores.
| Champions League 2023/24 Golden Boot Winner Odds | |
|---|---|
| Player Name | Odds |
| Erling Haaland | 11/10 |
| Harry Kane | 3/1 |
| Kylian Mbappe | 4/1 |
| Julian Alvarez | 15/1 |
| Robert Lewandowski | 15/1 |
| Gabriel Jesus | 20/1 |
| Jude Bellingham | 20/1 |
| Rasmus Hojlund | 25/1 |
| Vinícius Júnior | 30/1 |
| Victor Osimhen | 35/1 |
| Alexander Isak | 40/1 |
| Bukayo Saka | 40/1 |
| Marcus Rashford | 40/1 |
| Serge Gnabry | 40/1 |
| Antoine Griezmann | 50/1 |
| Callum Wilson | 50/1 |
| Goncalo Ramos | 50/1 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 50/1 |
| Phil Foden | 50/1 |
| Wenderson Galeno | 50/1 |
| Jamal Musiala | 60/1 |
| Leroy Sane | 60/1 |
| Rodrygo Silva De Goes | 60/1 |
| Ciro Immobile | 65/1 |
| Olivier Giroud | 65/1 |
| Memphis Depay | 70/1 |
| Jérémy Doku | 75/1 |
| Loïs Openda | 75/1 |
| Martin Odegaard | 75/1 |
| Kai Havertz | 90/1 |
| Benjamin Sesko | 100/1 |
| Bernardo Silva | 100/1 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 100/1 |
| Timo Werner | 100/1 |
| Andre Silva | 200/1 |
The Champions League Betting Odds at bet365 have Haaland as the most likely player to win a second consecutive Golden Boot. Harry Kane and Mbappe follow closely in the list that is overwhelmed with talents, with Osimhen of Napoli, Oliver Giroud of AC Milan, Memphis Depay of Atletico Madrid, Vinicius Junior of Real Madrid, and Alexander Isak of Newcastle some of the notable mentions.
Champions League Golden Boot – Past Winners Since 1993
Here is a complete list of all the winners, from Erling Haaland, who won last year, all the way back to Franck Sauzée, who won the award in 1993, a time many consider to be the start of the “modern era”.
| Champions League Top Scorers by Season | ||
|---|---|---|
| Season | Player | Goals |
| 2022/23 | Erling Haaland (Manchester City) | 12 |
| 2021/22 | Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) | 15 |
| 2020/21 | Erling Haaland (Dortmund) | 10 |
| 2019/20 | Robert Lewandowski (Bayern) | 15 |
| 2018/19 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 12 |
| 2017/18 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 15 |
| 2016/17 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 12 |
| 2015/16 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 16 |
| 2014/15 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) Neymar (Barcelona) Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) |
10 |
| 2013/14 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 17 |
| 2012/13 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 12 |
| 2011/12 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 14 |
| 2010/11 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 12 |
| 2009/10 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 8 |
| 2008/09 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 9 |
| 2007/08 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United) | 8 |
| 2006/07 | Kaká (AC Milan) | 10 |
| 2005/06 | Andriy Shevchenko (AC Milan) | 9 |
| 2004/05 | Ruud van Nistelrooy (Manchester United) | 8 |
| 2003/04 | Fernando Morientes (Monaco) | 9 |
| 2002/03 | Ruud van Nistelrooy (Manchester United) | 12 |
| 2001/02 | Ruud van Nistelrooy (Manchester United) | 10 |
| 2000/01 | Raúl González (Real Madrid) | 7 |
| 1999/2000 | Mário Jardel (Porto) Rivaldo (Barcelona) Raúl González (Real Madrid) |
10 |
| 1998/99 | Andriy Shevchenko (Dynamo Kyiv) Dwight Yorke (Manchester United) |
8 |
| 1997/98 | Alessandro Del Piero (Juventus) | 10 |
| 1996/97 | Milinko Pantić (Atlético Madrid) | 5 |
| 1995/96 | Jari Litmanen (Ajax) | 9 |
| 1994/95 | George Weah (Paris Saint-Germain) | 7 |
| 1993/94 | Hristo Stoichkov (Barcelona) | 5 |
| 1992/93 | Franck Sauzée (Marseille) | 5 |
*All information is taken from the UEFA website and is correct at the time of writing.
Some fantastic players have managed to claim the Golden Boot. In this next section, I’ll take a closer look at the serial winners.
Cristiano Ronaldo – 7 wins
The Portugal captain has won the Golden Boot the most times with a remarkable feat, winning the accolade six consecutive times from 2012-12 to 2017-18. He was essential in leading his side to three back-to-back Champions League titles in that period. The other time the maestro won the title was in 2008 with Manchester United, where he led his side to the title by scoring in the final against Chelsea.
In addition to being the record winner of the Golden Boot, Ronaldo is the top scorer in the competition with 140 goals, having played for Manchester United, Real Madrid, and Juventus. The Champions League was forever changed when Ronaldo and Messi, who we discuss next, stepped into the footballing world.
Years won: 2007-08, 2012–13, 2013–14, 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17 and 2017–18
Lionel Messi – 6 wins
The Argentinian captain made his mark for his country by leading them to a triumph in the 2022 World Cup. The national award complements his achievements in club football, having broken all kinds of records in his time at Barcelona. He, however, sits second just one Golden Boot award behind his greatest rival in football, Ronaldo.
Will any of these Lionel Messi records ever be broken? 🐐 pic.twitter.com/FqTyGZoIoZ
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) October 31, 2023
The little magician is second in the all-time goal scorer list in the Champions League with 129 goals, having had time at Barcelona and PSG. Messi won four consecutive UCL Golden Boot awards from 2009 to 2012, surpassing Gerd Muller’s record of three successive awards playing for Bayern Munich (1972-73, 1973-74, 1974-75). His record was, however, broken by Ronaldo, who did a sixfold for the award.
Years won: 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12, 2014/15 (shared with Neymar and Cristiano Ronaldo) and 2018/19.
Gerd Muller – 4 wins
Real Madrid has Ronaldo, Barcelona have Messi, and Bayern Munich have Gerd Muller as their historical top scorer, who took the Champions League by storm in the seventies. The maestro bagged four Golden Boot awards in his playing time, keeping the record for over thirty years before the two iconic players above him threatened it in the tally. He set the standard and landmark in the competition, dominating the Champions League with three consecutive Golden Boot awards and a fourth two years later. He led his side to three Champions League titles.
Years won: 1972/73, 1973/74, 1974/75 and 1976/77.
Top Scorers Overall in the Champions League
To get into the list of top scorers in the Champions League, you need to score goals, plenty of them. Here is the list of the all-time top scorers in the Champions League era.
- 140: Cristiano Ronaldo (POR, Manchester United, Real Madrid, Juventus)
- 129: Lionel Messi (ARG, Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain)
- 92: Robert Lewandowski (POL, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern München, Barcelona)
- 90: Karim Benzema (FRA, Lyon, Real Madrid)
- 71: Raúl González (ESP, Real Madrid, Schalke)
- 56: Ruud van Nistelrooy (NED, PSV Eindhoven, Manchester United, Real Madrid)
- 53: Thomas Müller (GER, Bayern München)
- 50: Thierry Henry (FRA, Monaco, Arsenal, Barcelona)
- 48: Zlatan Ibrahimović (SWE, Ajax, Juventus, Inter, Barcelona, AC Milan, Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester United)
- 48: Andriy Shevchenko (UKR, Dynamo Kyiv, AC Milan, Chelsea)
- 46: Filippo Inzaghi (ITA, Juventus, AC Milan)
It’s no surprise to see Ronaldo and Messi top the charts. As both have moved on to different clubs outside of Europe, neither will likely add to these ridiculous numbers. It will be interesting to see if today’s wonder kids like Haaland and Bellingham will challenge the leaderboard.
Champions League – The Importance of Being the Top Scorer
Being the top scorer in the Champions League, the most prestigious tournament in European football, is one of the highest honours a footballer can achieve in their career.
The accolade carries a profound career impact, particularly for a player aspiring for their dream transfer; it beckons the world’s elite clubs to your threshold. Clinching the Champions League Golden Boot signifies that you can contend with the world’s best teams in the most formidable competition, confront the greatest, and excel at the highest international level.
Suppose you can achieve such a feat, then it’s pretty logical that you are a talented and skilful player who can perform anywhere and deliver. That is why top teams will be hunting for your signature. The Golden Boot Award and UEFA Men’s Player of the Year are the most outstanding awards a player can have on his resume.
On a team level, goals win games; if you have a player banging goals left, right and centre, the chances of winning rise significantly in a tournament where one goal could be the difference between victory and defeat, having a top scorer in your ranks or a person you can trust who can convert a goal scoring opportunity when it arises is a colossal flex, especially in a competition where the stakes are incredibly high.
The number of games the team plays also factor in as teams that proceed to the latter stages of the knockout phase play more games; for instance, a team that plays in the finals will play seven more games than a team that gets knocked out in the group stage. Thus, players in stronger teams have a better chance to improve their performance stats.
Opposition – The group stage is an avenue where a draw groups the teams. It’s fair to say some groups are more challenging than others. Thus, when teams meet with all due respect, lesser teams can maximise their goal-scoring exploits; for instance, a team scores six goals in a group stage game, and a player scores four goals. However, the Champions League is the highest stage of European football, and we have seen teams field their best teams. The performance in this season’s group stage has been top-notch but remains a factor that could hand a player millage in the race.
Golden Boot 2023/24 Betting Prediction
From the performances and the factors I mentioned, I predict that Harry Kane will be this year’s leading scorer.
First, Bayern Munich has a point to prove after being knocked out prematurely in last season’s campaign; the Germans are marshalling a solid campaign and would likely reach the last four if they don’t make it to the finals. That means Kane will have a chance to play more games than some of the contenders on our list.
“While almost everyone is tipping Erling Haaland to claim what would be back-to-back Golden Boot titles, my money is on Harry Kane. The former Tottenham man has taken to life in Germany like a duck to water. At 3/1, it’s an opportunity to realise a decent return. I’ll be backing him sooner rather than later as Bayern Munich faces Galatasaray next week, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him score.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.
Secondly, Bayern has a strong squad in all areas of the pitch, having boosted the team with new acquisitions in the summer; thus, his performances and expectations are limited to scoring goals. Lastly, Kane has been on the excellent scoring, delivering exceptional performances in tournaments.
He has performed well in a very unbalanced Tottenham team (although they are doing great without him, to be fair), and now, with the players around him, the England captain should quickly improve his tally of two goals as a real contender. His greatest rival is Haaland, who is also very vicious and aggressive in front of the goal, making this race entertaining.
