Carabao Cup – Luke’s Fourth Round Tips
Welcome to our special coverage of the EFL Cup Fourth Round! Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, provides in-depth previews of selected matches. Luke will delve into crucial team information, highlight essential statistics, and reveal the latest odds. Moreover, he will advise you on bets that are statistically based. So, before you bet, read this comprehensive guide.
We are down to the final sixteen in the EFL Cup and have all the exciting in-depth reviews of six of the eight games. Last year’s champions, Man United, welcome Newcastle to the Theatre of Dreams in a repeat of the previous year’s final and in what we predict would be the match of the round. We have a London derby as high-flying Arsenal make the short trip to the London Stadium to play West Ham. Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool head to the Vitality to play AFC Bournemouth, Chelsea welcome Blackburn Rovers, Everton play Burnley, and Premier League hopefuls Ipswich Town can test their top-flight credentials against Fulham.
EFL Fourth Round – Manchester United vs. Newcastle United
The defending Champions of the Carabao Cup play Newcastle in a repeat of the 2022-23 final. The Red Devils beat fellow Premier League side Crystal Palace 3 – 0 to book a place in the fourth round. The Wembley triumph ended a six-year drought, handing Erik Ten Hag a trophy in his debut season to brew confidence in the progress and project with the team. They, however, come to this match on the back of a 3 – 0 thumping by Manchester City at the ‘Theatre of Dreams’ to end a three-game winning streak.
In the fourth round game, United have a historical advantage as they have progressed from all their five ties in this stage. They would feel second place against the high-flying Magpies, but the defending champions have a great attacking artillery to triumph, especially at home.
Newcastle edged out treble winners Manchester City, dominating them in all aspects and triumphing 1 – 0. The game’s last run has been heaven for the Magpies faithful, beating Pep Guardiola and a 4 – 1 thumping of PSG in the Champions League, looking steady in the Premier League table. Eddie Howe must find the right balance between the busy schedule, especially with injuries to critical players denting their progress.
A 2 – 2 draw against Wolves followed up a 1 – 0 defeat against Dortmund in the Champions League. We expect them to field a solid side to battle Man United, who stole their dream of silverware, by beating them 2 – 0 in the Wembley final for the trophy. The Magpies bounced back to win in their most recent game by the same scoreline and would see this as a great chance to dethrone the champions, who have been off their rhythm.
Match Odds: Manchester United: 6/5, Draw: 12/5, Newcastle: 23/10.
EFL Fourth Round – West Ham United vs. Arsenal
West Ham welcomes unbeaten Arsenal in an EFLCup fourth-round London derby. The Hammers seemed to be back in their rhythm but have failed to win in their last four games (three defeats, one draw). They still top their Europa League group despite losing in midweek and lost 1 – 0 against Everton over the weekend but are still clinging on in the top half of the table.
David Moyes’s side won the Europa Conference League last season and are eyeing a first-ever Carabao Cup triumph. Their best performance in the competition was reaching the finals in 1981. They have gone five games without a shutout and failed to score in just one game, their most recent match, having found the back of the net in eighteen straight games at the London stadium.
Juggling through competitions has been a real stretch, as seen in their third-round 1 – 0 victory against Lincoln City.
Arsenal is yet to taste defeat and has been scoring for fun, thumping Sheffield United 5 – 0 in an Eddie Nketiah hat trick show in their most recent match. That means they have had back-to-back man-of-match performances by their forwards, with Gabriel Jesus being the best player on the pitch against Sevilla in midweek. Ten games into the new season, the Gunners are moving from strength to strength, especially for a side that has generationally played good football; Arteta has been curing the goal-scoring curse.
The last time Arsenal were knocked out in the fourth round was against another Premier League side, Liverpool, in penalties in 2019 after a 5 – 5 draw. They, however, have a superior squad that they can rotate and needed one goal to go past Brentford. The last time they played at the London Stadium, they threw away a 2 – 0 lead to draw 2 – 2, derailing their hopes of winning the Premier League.
Arsenal averages 2.30 goals scored per game and have conceded 0.80 goals per game in the ten league games they have played this season. West Ham has scored an average of 1.60 goals and conceded an average of 1.70 goals, and both teams are yet to concede in the EFL Cup, winning their games by a 1 – 0 scoreline.
Match Odds: West Ham 5/2, Draw 5/2 and Arsenal 11/10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
West Ham has a scoring rate of 90% and a conceding rate of 90%. Arsenal has been scoring an average of 2.30 goals per game. Both teams are likely to score based on their current form in their recent games in the league.
Over 2.5 Total Goals
70% of West Ham’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in total. Arsenal has an average of 2.30 goals scored per game. The likelihood of the match ending with more than 2.5 goals is high and is a bet worth considering.
Arsenal to Win
This season, Arsenal has an impressive form, with seven wins and three draws in 10 matches. They have not lost a game yet and have a higher point-per-game average (2.40) than West Ham (1.40). The word of caution is if Arsenal decide to play a weakened side to prioritise the Premier League. As the Gunners lacked squad depth, last season, this is a possibility.
Second Half Most Goals
82% of West Ham’s conceded goals occurred in the second half. Arsenal’s average goals conceded also slightly increased in the second half. This suggests that the second half could be more action-packed. As there are no replays, a late flurry wouldn’t be a surprise.
Arsenal to Score First
Arsenal has been in good form, and West Ham has conceded the first goal in 30% of their matches. Given Arsenal’s attacking prowess, they are likely to score first.
EFL Fourth Round – AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool
Bournemouth will head to the game full of belief, having won their first Premier League games in their 2–1 triumph against Burnley to move out of the relegation zone. They welcome Liverpool at the Vitality stadium for the fourth round after edging out Stoke City 2 – 0 to end a run of three consecutive defeats.
Iraola leads the Cherries to the third round for a second successive season, with last season falling off at this stage to Premier League outfit Newcastle.
In the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, Bournemouth’s strongest showing in the competition was making it to the quarter-finals. They now face a scheduling dilemma with an upcoming Premier League match against Manchester City this weekend. Iraola must strategically choose to avoid early relegation or aim for a League Cup victory.
Liverpool had to bring in their big guns to marshal a comeback to beat Leicester City 3 – 1 and book a place in the last sixteen. The Reds are the second joint top-scoring side in the league this season, having struggled to find their best fit in attack the previous season; every combination seems to be working for Jurgen Klopp this season. A three-nil win against Nottingham Forest sets them in a solid position to repeat their 2022 EFL Cup triumph. They were knocked out at this stage last season by Manchester City.
The Reds have scored two or more goals in the last five games in all competition, which means they will be unstoppable against Bournemouth. The most recent travel to the Vitality Stadium was a 1 – 0 defeat in retaliation for a 9 – 0 humiliation in the reverse fixture. Klopp has to field a better squad than in the previous round that saw them struggle and concede first, as the Cherries are a strong team and would likely play their best eleven.
Match Odds: Bournemouth 6/1, Draw 9/2, Liverpool 1/2.
Liverpool to Win
Liverpool has been in excellent form this season, with seven wins, two draws, and one loss in their last ten league games. They have a Points Per Game (PPG) of 2.30. On the other hand, Bournemouth has been struggling, with only one win in their last ten league games and a PPG of 0.60.
Over 2.5 Total Goals
70% of Bournemouth’s matches and a significant number of Liverpool’s matches have had over 2.5 goals scored in total. Both teams have shown the ability to score and concede, making this a likely outcome and worth backing.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Bournemouth has scored in 60% of their games, and Liverpool has a high average of 2.30 goals per game. Additionally, both teams tend to concede goals, making it likely that both teams will score.
Liverpool to Score in Both Halves
Liverpool has a strong scoring record, averaging 2.30 goals per game. They have also scored in both halves in several of their recent matches. Given Bournemouth’s defensive vulnerabilities, Liverpool will likely find the net in both halves.
Liverpool to Lead at Half-Time
Liverpool has been leading at half-time in 50% of their matches, while Bournemouth has been losing at half-time in 40% of their matches. Given Liverpool’s stronger form and the attacking talents at their disposal, they will likely be ahead by the break.
EFL Fourth Round – Chelsea vs Blackburn Rovers
Chelsea needs a good performance against Blackburn Rovers, having failed to win in their last two games (one draw, one defeat) after an impressive run of three consecutive wins. The recent defeat to Brentford after the remarkable show against Arsenal saw them drop into the bottom half of the table. The Blues beat Brighton 1 – 0 but were unconvincing in their 2 – 1 win against AFC Wimbledon to book a date with Blackburn Rovers.
The tension would be high as a poor result here will surely ramp up the pressure.
The five-time winners of the Carabao Cup have struggled at this stage, being knocked out four times in the last eight seasons. However, the London side have lost just once against a team in the lower league in fifteen years, with the defeat coming against Bradford City in the FA Cup back in 2015.
Blackburn has also had an inconsistent season under Joh Dahl, and it would be interesting to see if they would be motivated to perform at Stamford Bridge. They have won nine in seventeen games, lost seven, and drawn once. The 2002 Carabao Cup winners have been the highest scorers in the competition, beating Cardiff 5 – 2 in the third round, thumping Harrogate Town 8 – 0 in the second round, and starting the campaign with a 4 – 3 win against Walsall. Dahl’s side has the strength in attack to score, with their biggest test coming in their defence.
Their last campaign halted at this stage, losing to Premier League outfit Nottingham Forest. The Rovers’ best performance other than their win came in the 2011-12 season when they were knocked out in the fifth round by Cardiff. A domestic cup encounter might be just what they need to remember the taste of the Premier League, as they are four points off the relegation place.
Over the weekend, they lost 1 – 0 against Swansea City, ending a three-game winning run in the league.
Match Odds: Chelsea: 1/4, Draw: 5/1, Blackburn: 11/1.
EFL Fourth Round – Everton vs. Burnley
The Goodison Park will be the battleground for an EFL clash between Premier League sides Everton and Burnley, in what will be a reunion for Sean Dyche, welcoming his former team to his new heaven where he has had a successful spell at Merseyside. The objective intensifies for Dyche with survival in their mind and the thought of ending a nearly three-decade trophyless run (twenty-eight years).
The talks of a twelve-point deduction for the Toffees for financial breaches means Premier League survival could be more dramatic than the last two seasons, in which they escaped by the narrowest margins.
However, this current cup run provides relief, and they triumphed against Aston Villa on the road in the last round, an excellent result as Villa are one of the form teams. They also won in their last league game, a convincing 1 – 0 win against West Ham, which shows their mental strength. Four wins in six games, with an unlucky defeat against Liverpool that saw them play most of the match with ten men.
They have never won the competition but reached the finals twice, losing to Aston Villa in 1976 and Liverpool in 1984.
Everton's fixtures in November:
Burnley (H) – Carabao Cup
Brighton (H) – Premier League
Crystal Palace (A) – Premier League
Manchester United (H) – Premier LeagueHow many wins are we expecting, Blues? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/jDYTJC1uXK
— A View From The Bullens (@thebullensview) October 31, 2023
Vincent Kompany was jubilant to be promoted to the Premier League. Still, a rocky start with eight defeats and just four points from the possible thirty see them as a potential relegation candidates. The stubbornness of playing out from the back was their demise, as both goals they conceded over the weekend against Bournemouth, losing 2 – 1 after losing possession in their own half.
In the EFL Cup, they will be playing in the fourth round, where they have failed to excel in the last three campaigns where they faced tricky Premier League opposition (Manchester United, Spurs, and Manchester City. The Clarets’ best performance in the competition was reaching the semi-finals on three occasions. Their troubles in the league would be understandable if they bottled this tie and focused on survival in the Premier League from an early stage.
Match Odds: Everton: 9/10, Draw: 12/5, Burnley: 16/5
Over 2.5 Goals
Both teams tend to be involved in matches where more than 2.5 goals are scored. Everton’s average goals per game is 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Burnley’s is 0.80 scored and 2.50 conceded. The stats suggest that both teams will likely score or concede, making Over 2.5 Goals a plausible bet.
Everton to Win
Everton has a better form than Burnley, with three wins in their last ten games compared to Burnley’s one. Additionally, Everton has a points-per-game average of 1.00, while Burnley’s is just 0.40. Everton also has the home advantage, making them the favourites to win.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Everton has scored in 50% of their matches, and Burnley has scored in 50% of their away games. Given that both teams have vulnerabilities in defence, it’s likely that both will find the net.
First Half Draw
Everton has been drawing at half-time in 60% of their home games, and Burnley has been drawing at half-time in 40% of their away games. Both teams might be cautious in the first half, making a draw a likely outcome.
Everton to Score in First 15 Minutes
Everton have scored 30% of their total goals tally in the first 15 minutes. Given Burnley’s poor defensive record, especially away from home, Everton could capitalise early on.
EFL Fourth Round – Ipswich Town vs. Fulham
Ipswich Town eliminated Wolves, beating them 3 – 2 in the third round, and now welcome Fulham at Portman Road to try to repeat their heroics. The Tractor Boys came from two goals down with an impressive performance and memorable goals in arguably the best game of the round. The win set them up to play in the last sixteen for the first time since 2010-11 when they reached the semi-finals. Ipswich looks promising as they work to achieve promotion to the Premier League and won their weekend match 3 -2 against Plymouth Argyle.
They are in fine form with four consecutive wins to sit second in the championship table, dropping points twice in sixteen matches (fourteen wins). They will be the underdogs, although they have the home advantage against top-flight opposition.
The Cottagers are the only team to have beaten Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs, who are flying high at the top of the Premier League. That was in the second round of the competition, and now face an unpredictable Championship side that has been excellent.
The last time they played in the fourth round, they lost 3 – 0 to Brentford in the 2020-21 campaign and 2 – 0 to Man City in 2018-19. The Cottagers drew 1 – 1 against Brighton over the weekend and still have no win in the five games on the road. Fulham won 1 – 0 the last time they played Ipswich Town in the second round in 2020-21.
Match Odds: Ipswich: 12/5, Draw: 5/2, Fulham: 23/20 with bet365.
Ipswich Town Will Win
Ipswich Town has been in excellent form, winning 11 of their 13 matches this season. They have also been undefeated in their last nine matches. In contrast, Fulham has won only three of their ten matches this season. Ipswich Town’s form suggests they are the stronger team going into this match.
Both Teams Will Score
Ipswich Town has scored in each of their last 13 matches, but they have also conceded at least one goal in five of their seven home matches. Fulham has an average of 0.90 goals scored per game this season. Given these stats, it’s likely that both teams will find the back of the net.
More Than 2.5 Goals in Total
Ipswich Town has an average of 2.23 goals scored per game this season, and they have scored two goals or more in each of their last seven home matches. Fulham has an average of 1.60 goals conceded per game. Combining these stats, it’s likely that the match will have more than 2.5 goals in total.
Ipswich Town Will Score First
Ipswich Town has scored the opening goal in ten of their 13 matches this season. Given their strong form and high-scoring nature, it’s likely that they will score the first goal of the match.
Ipswich Town Will Lead at Half-time
Ipswich Town has been leading at half-time in eight of their 13 matches this season. Given their strong form and the fact that they have won their last five home matches, it’s likely that they will be leading at half-time.
The fourth round of the Carabao Cup features the top sixteen teams, all of whom have proven their worth by surviving tough matches in earlier rounds. At this stage, anyone can beat anyone, setting the stage for highly competitive and thrilling football matchups.
