Can the UK Could Prove Best of Eurovision’s Big Five on Saturday?
Following an energetic performance of their song ‘Stefania’ in Tuesday’s first Eurovision semi-final, the Kalush Orchestra – representing ante-post favorites Ukraine – sailed through to the final of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest.
The country is now 4/7 to win the grand final and, with lyrics such as “I will always walk to you by broken roads” in its folk-rap song, this beleaguered former soviet state is very likely to justify those short odds on Saturday night.
The UK’s Sam Ryder performs his song, Space Man, during 2022 Eurovision Song Contest rehearsals. ©EBU/Andres Puttin
Second and third favorites – Italy and the UK – have been fast-tracked into the final. Punters, therefore, have no semi-final crowd reaction or fan forum feedback to guide them. Nevertheless, the bookmakers have reported significant support for the two countries. Hovering around 9/2 and 7/1, they are predicted to fill the podium places.
The UK Can Be the Best of the Big Five
Consequently, from a betting viewpoint, punters should delve deeper to seek out better options. One such opportunity comes in the ‘Top Big Five’ market. Restricted to the five countries that do not have to complete in semi-finals – Germany, France, Spain, the UK and Italy – here, the UK appears generously priced at 7/4.
The top novelty betting sites make Italy the 4/5 favorite in this market. But there are grounds to believe that they have adjusted the odds to reflect their liabilities on the country and it is not a true gauge of the defending champion’s chances.
It is well documented that Italy gambles more on Eurovision than any other country. Italian music lovers are as fanatical about the competition as its young male drivers are about red Ferraris. Of course, it is also well documented that the UK has a dismal recent record in Eurovision.
But this year, the UK has pulled a rabbit out of the bag by sending a TikTok star, Sam Ryder, to the famous contest. Boasting over 12.3 million followers and delivering a thumping rendition of his song ‘Space Man’ during rehearsals, Sam Ryder would appear the UK’s brightest Eurovision hope in over two decades.
7/4 is not a true reflection of the UK’s chances in this select ‘Top Big Five’ market. It appears too big and is therefore worthy of some support.
Moldovan Novelty Act Is Worthy of a Top-10 Finish
Another reasonably priced play is Moldova to make the top-10. The country qualified out of the first semi-final and, as a reward, they have been allocated a coveted second-half draw in the finals show. Traditionally, when the final scores have been collated, it has proven to be very advantageous.
Moldova’s Zdob si Zdub & Advahov Brothers can finish in the top-10 of Saturday’s final courtesy of a quirky act and a zany song. ©EBU/Corinne Cumming
The Moldovan act – a folk-punk outfit – delivers a tune and performance that is zany, quirky, overt and trainwreck-style entertaining. It is the distilled spirit of Eurovision. While Ukraine will receive sympathy votes and the classy acts will score well amongst the judges, this one might collect enough scores from Eurovision diehards to breach the top-10.
The best gambling sites make this proposition 9/4. It is another price that appears greater than its true probability, and so it is worth a small investment.
