Can Max Break the Win Streak Record at the Temple of Speed?
It was an action-packed, rain-hit encounter, but Max Verstappen overcame the elements to win last weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix. This Sunday, he will attempt to better Sebastian Vettel’s record of nine successive Formula 1 victories.
Some weather forecasters predict further rain will land on the Monza Circuit during this Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix. As rain, chaos, a red flag, and re-starts proved no barrier to the Dutch World Champion in Holland, motorsports betting sites confidently quote him on 2/9 odds to win again.
In winning nine consecutive races, Max Verstappen has looked bomb-proof. But will Monza deliver a third surprise winner in four years? ©RedBull
Verstappen landed this contest 12 months ago. It was his fifth race win in a row, and the victory came after success in Holland, Belgium and Hungary. 2023’s itinerary is identical. And, driving a car that has suffered just one retirement through mechanical failure in 66 race starts, there appears to be no reason to oppose the long odds-on favourite.
Believing Max Can Fail at the Temple
Nevertheless, all good things must come to an end, and we will do the unthinkable by opposing the driver who is currently leading the World Drivers’ Championship by 138 points. There is some method to our apparent madness.
Despite being a fast track – known as the Temple of Speed – where overtaking on the straights is relatively straightforward, Monza has become a bête noire for teams and favourite backers.
The requisite low downforce set-up means cars and drivers endure massive longitudinal forces – acceleration and braking – at Monza. These demands can and do lead to failures and mishaps. In 2020 and 2022, four cars failed to see the chequered flag. Five drivers never finished in 2021.
Daniel and Pierre Know What Is Possible
The race did go to form last year – Verstappen beat pole-setting Charles Leclerc with George Russell, who qualified second, taking bronze – but the race finished behind the Safety Car, and the result could have been different if it was called into action slightly earlier.
But there have been significant shocks in recent seasons. Daniel Ricciardo scored his first win in over three years in 2021. Pierre Gasly recorded his first victory (and podium finish) when scoring in 2020. Online betting sites made the Frenchman 150/1 ahead of the race weekend.
As for Verstappen, Monza has not been an overwhelmingly happy hunting ground. Driving a car that won races every season since 2015, his previous Italian Grand Prix finishing positions are 1-R-R-8-5-10-7. These disappointing form figures help me to conclude that his 2/9 odds are too short.
The Pace to Challenge the Top Two
If Monza does prove to be a banana skin race for Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton could be the beneficiary. The Englishman has won this contest five times and has stood on the Monza podium steps another three occasions.
Lewis Hamilton believes he could have “challenged the top two” in Holland last weekend. ©Jiri Krenek/MercedesF1
The seven-time world champion qualified 13th and finished only sixth in Holland, but, as he later explained, his performance was far better than the bare result suggests. “I wanted to start the race on an offset tyre compound, but then it turned out I was the only one in the field on a different tyre,” he groaned.
“And then the rain came. As a team, we made the wrong decision and paid the price, coming out last. After that, I just got my head down, and I was chasing; it was a great example that when you fall or stumble, just get back up and keep trying.”
“Each time I pitted, I came out behind and kept chasing and chasing. I was really happy – I passed the McLaren, for example, which isn’t easy at this track. And then, at the end, I just needed DRS to pass Sainz because I was quicker but didn’t have the speed on the straight to do it.”
“But overall, it’s a feeling of what could have been. If we’d made different calls, we had the pace to challenge the top two. We weren’t far off in the dry – and it would have been good to be in that fight,” Hamilton concluded.
Brave Punters Wanted for 20/1 Reward
Hamilton has yet to come close to winning in 2023 but has claimed four podium finishes from the 13 races. Of course, luck will be needed to topple Max Verstappen, but the star has left Monza empty-handed many times in the past. That one mechanical failure in 66 race starts? It happened to the Red Bull driver here in 2020!
Loyal only to our pockets, we hope lightning can strike twice, and the win part of an each-way play on Lewis Hamilton will be landed. If that is optimistic, the place section of the 20/1 offered by the best Formula 1 betting sites – with 1/3rd the odds terms – still represents odds that will reward brave punters handsomely.
