There Is Betting Value in the Predictable Spanish Grand Prix
If this weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix goes the way of the formbook, several short-priced propositions will be declared winning bets on Sunday evening. As was the case with last weekend’s Monaco Grand Prix, for the past decade this race has been dominated by the Mercedes and Red Bull teams.
Alex Albon will not be winning the Spanish Grand Prix, but he could sneak into the top 10 at a tasty price. ©GettyImages
Furthermore, eighteen of the last 20 Spanish Grand Prix winners have begun on either first or second on the starting grid. Compared to other circuits, Safety Car use is low and finishing numbers are high at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.
Overtaking is a challenge in Spain. The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya has a wide range of corner types and speeds. The slow-speed corners like Turns 14 and 15 focus on mechanical grip, but high-speed sections such as Turns 3 and 9 test cars’ aerodynamic grip.
Scraping the Bedrock for Gold
The Barcelona circuit layout – which has had some small changes since 2022 – forces teams to use a high-downforce setup. Wings are therefore large, meaning maximum speeds are relatively low. These characteristics partially explain why the Spanish Grand Prix is regularly won by a wide margin. Additionally, between 12 and 17 drivers are normally lapped during the contest.
It is hard to argue with the teams’ technical analysis of this circuit or the formbook. There are no anomalies among the previous results. Even the fastest lap distinction has gone to either a Red Bull or a Mercedes driver in eight of the past nine seasons. To identify genuine betting opportunities, a bedrock examination of all motorsports betting sites was required for this weekend’s Formula 1 betting tips. Below are two value bets that our study has thrown up.
Error-Free Albon Is Good in Spain
To clarify, at 2/5 Max Verstappen is expected to stamp his authority on the Spanish Grand Prix and take a 14th race victory from his last 18 starts. Fernando Alonso – driving an Aston Martin that appears tailormade to the needs of the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya – is predicted to collect his sixth silver or bronze medal from his last seven starts.
Comprehensive results from the previous Spanish Grand Prix support our bet theories. ©Brindley
Both drivers will probably justify their odds-on quotes. It is anything but probable, but entirely possible that Alex Albon can scrape into a top-10 position and reward his supporters with a winning bet at far more profitable 11/4 odds.
This season the Thai driver has been both frustrating and thrilling in equal measure. Starting 15th, he battled through the field in the Bahrain Grand Prix to claim an outstanding tenth place in the season’s opening race. Two races later, in Australia, he qualified an excellent eighth only to make an unforced error and crash out of the race.
Albon also made a mistake during practice in Monaco. His wreck caused a lot of damage to his Williams and compromised his race weekend. But this weekend could see the error-free best from Albon. After all, he won here during his GP3 career and also secured a podium finish as a Formula 2 racer.
Safer Circuit to Lessen Safety Car Need?
Pre-race, it was 1/7 that a Safety Car would be called into play at last weekend’s Monaco Grand Prix. However, despite wet conditions, it remained parked in the pit lane. There is every reason to think it will be side-lined for a second consecutive weekend.
Our statistics show the Safety Car has not been required for the majority of previous Spanish Grand Prixs, and its use ratio is just three-from-13. The changes made to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for this weekend include the disposal of the chicane in sector three and the widening of run-off areas.
Both of these improvements should theoretically lessen the likelihood of accidents and Safety Car-inducing car strandings. Leading betting site bet365 and many other £10 deposit betting sites do not seem to buy into the idea, so the popular operator quotes a generous looking 6/5 on it being unused once again.
