Premier League Week 31: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 5 April 2024

The Premier League is fast approaching a thrilling conclusion, and this weekend could prove pivotal at both ends of the table. In the quest for the title, just three points separate the top three, and any points dropped could prove decisive at this late stage of the season. The situation is just as tense at the bottom, with eight points between 14th and 19th. Join our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, who analyses five games and shares the latest Premier League betting odds.

The oldest and fiercest rivalry in English football continues as the two most successful teams in the country go head-to-head. Manchester United welcomes Liverpool to Old Trafford with the Red Devils eyeing European football while the Reds have their eyes on the Premier League title.

Manchester City are in the early kickoff against Crystal Palace, while Arsenal travels to Brighton in the intensifying title race. The title hopefuls understand points are precious, and they can’t afford to drop even a single one.

Wolves play West Ham, and Fulham will battle Newcastle United in two games, which could help determine which teams will achieve European qualification.

Premier League Betting – Crystal Palace vs Man City

With a game in hand, Crystal Palace stands eight points clear of the relegation zone, appearing safe with eight matches remaining. Nevertheless, they play a crucial role in the title race, as their next two fixtures are against Manchester City and Liverpool.

The Eagles are on a four-game winless run (two draws, two defeats) and have been winless against the top five sides this campaign (one draw, six defeats). The only time they avoided defeat in the run against the top five was against the defending Champions when they came from two goals down to draw 2-2.

Palace has failed to find the back of the net against their visitors in the previous four home games, with the last goal coming in April 2019. Palace will likely opt for a 3-4-2-1 formation with the defensive trio of Jefferson Lerma, Joachim Andersen, and Joel Ward supported by the four in midfield.

Palace have their fair share of injuries, and manager Oliver Glasner could be without as many as nine players. It’s not ideal as the Eagles face Liverpool after they play Manchester City.

@CPFC complete signing of Jean Phillippe Mateta on initial 18 month loan from Mainz. 13.4mil option to buy which becomes mandatory if striker starts 15 Premier League games#TransferTalk #EPL #CPFC pic.twitter.com/HdhpV3vcV1

— Ashley Bates (@Batesey) January 21, 2021

Jean-Phillippe Mateta was on target in the first encounter at Etihad and scored the opening or last goal in their previous two home games.

Home team top scorer: – Jean-Philippe Mateta, anytime goal scorer 9/2 & first goal scorer 12/1.

Manchester City is deeply embroiled in the three-team Premier League title race and can’t afford to drop points when they travel to the capital. Pep Guardiola’s side is back to winning ways, beating Champions League-chasing Aston Villa 4-1 after a disappointing goalless encounter against Arsenal.

We saw the defending Champions work on their rotation in midweek. With the Champions League resuming with a trip to Spain to face the most successful team in Europe, a lot is at stake for the Citizens. They have been unbeaten on the road in the previous six games (five wins, one draw).

Pep would, however, worry about his side’s defence, as they kept a clean sheet in just one of the last nine travels to London (five wins, one draw, and three defeats).

Likely to field a 4-2-3-1, Manchester City almost have a full-strength squad to pick from, with just Kyle Walker and Nathan Aké ruled out, although Ederson is also doubtful.

Erling Haaland would be efficiently rested, having missed out on the midweek win, having scored four goals in the last two games against Palace.

Away team top scorer: – Erling Haaland, anytime goal scorer 4/5 & first goal scorer 13/5 with Betiton.

Selected bets: – Crystal palace 17/2, Draw 22/5, Manchester city 4/11. Over 2.5 4/6, Under 2.5 5/4. BTTS: No 9/10, Yes 1/1.

Luke’s prediction: – Crystal Palace 1 Manchester City 3.

Premier League Betting – Fulham vs Newcastle

The Cottagers were on the wrong end of a 3-1 defeat against Nottingham Forest, going 2-0 down in the first twenty minutes. The poor start prompted Marco Silva to make a triple substitution at the half-hour mark, becoming the second manager to make such a tactical switch in the Premier League.

Fulham needed two goals in the final five minutes to secure a 3-3 draw against league bottlers Sheffield United. The thirteenth-placed side seems to lack motivation, as they are not in contention for a European slot and are safe enough not to be entangled in the relegation squabble.

Despite their struggles in their last two games, both of which were on the road, their form at Craven Cottage has been impressive. They lost just once in the previous six (four wins, one draw).

The London side favours a 4-2-3-1 formation, although they sometimes switch to a 4-3-3. Unlike their opponents, Fulham have no injury worries.

On a positive note, a shout out to Andreas Pereira 🙌

Much maligned when his end product doesn’t come off, he stood out with tenacity during the awful 1st half and creativity looking to improve things in the 2nd

His withdrawal late on felt like a partial acceptance of defeat pic.twitter.com/UIbm5LnDtj

— The Cottage Tactico (@CottageTactico) April 4, 2024

Andreas Pereira hasn’t scored since August but has provided an assist in the two games they have featured since the return from the International break.

Home team top scorer: – Rodrigo Muniz, anytime goal scorer 9/5 & first goal scorer 6/1.

Newcastle are unbeaten against their weekend hosts in the last eight games (six wins, two draws). Eddie Howe has a crowded injury section throughout the season, leaving them scrambling for seventh place, which would at least guarantee European football.

The Magpies’ away form has been dreadful this season. They have lost seven of the last eleven away games (winning two and drawing two). On that run, they conceded twenty-eight goals, which should be a worry for their defence with two key members sidelined.

Newcastle have won twice against Fulham in two competitions this season, winning their previous four games at Craven Cottage.

1 vs 4. #AlexanderIsak #Eritrea🇪🇷 pic.twitter.com/yMeZjC6DBm

— Tekle Asmarino 🇪🇷 (@RMERI214) April 2, 2024

Alexander Isak has been in fine form, scoring in four consecutive games to take his tally to twelve goals.

Away team top scorer: – Alexander Isak, anytime goal scorer 6/4 & first goal scorer 5/1.

Selected bets: – Fulham 31/20, Draw 11/4, Newcastle 7/4. Over 2.5 11/20, Under 2.5 6/4. BTTS: No 7/4, Yes 1/2.

“With Fulham at full strength and Newcastle without eleven players, I fancy Fulham to nick this one by a one-goal margin. The bookies offer 8/1 on a 2-1 scoreline, which appeals to me. In addition, I’ll be backing Alexander Isak to score Newcastle’s goal (6/5).” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Luke’s prediction: – Fulham 2 Newcastle United 1.

Premier League Betting – Wolves vs West Ham

Wolves played out a 1-1 draw with Burnley midweek to extend their winless run to three games (two draws). Despite their poor run of form, Gary O’Neil’s men are just three points from their visitors, who occupy seventh place.

Wolves have been inconsistent lately at the Molineux with an ‘all or nothing’ approach over the last six games (three wins, three defeats), with the team that scored first going all the way to win. They have a good record against West Ham at home, winning four games (one defeat) in the previous five games.

Rayan Aït-Nouri done ☑️

-8 😌pic.twitter.com/1xpRSsuex2

— AZ | FPL 🏆 (@Czo81) March 28, 2024

An unlikely scorer, Rayan Ait-Nouri has scored three goals in his last four games in all competitions, including the equalising goal against Burnley. All three league goals have been the opening goal, while five of his seven goals have come at home, making him one to watch, lighting up the left wing.

Home team top scorer: – Matheus Cunha, anytime goal scorer 17/9 & first goal scorer 11/2.

West Ham battled for a 1-1 draw against Champions League-chasing Tottenham Hotspur to keep their European qualification alive. David Moyes’s side is winless in the last four games (three draws, one defeat), and a defeat could see them level on points against their hosts in the crowded battle for seventh place.

The Hammers have shown strong form at home, with only one loss in their last sixteen matches. However, their away performances have been less successful, managing only two victories in their previous ten outings (with one draw and seven losses). Not only have they faced difficulties in winning, but their ability to score has also been a concern, as they failed to score in four of their last five away losses.

⚽ 1985–86: Tony Cottee (22 goals)
⚽ 1986–87: Tony Cottee (20 goals)
⚽ 2023/24: Jarrod Bowen (15 goals-)

Jarrod Bowen has set a target of becoming the first West Ham player to score 20 goals in a top-flight season since Tony Cottee and the first-ever in the Premier League ⚒️ pic.twitter.com/V2K4xy03V3

— Hammers Hub (@HammersHubWHUFC) April 4, 2024

Jarrod Bowen will be the hope for the side. The English attacker is just one goal from levelling Paulo Di Canio’s record of sixteen goals in a Premier League season.

Away team top scorer : Jarrod Bowen, anytime goal scorer 9/4 & first goal scorer 13/2.

Selected bets: – Wolves 31/20, Draw 13/5, West Ham 7/4. Over 2.5 3/4, Under 2.5 59/50. BTTS: No 29/20, Yes 8/13.

Luke’s prediction: – Wolves 1 West Ham 2.

Premier League Betting – Brighton vs Arsenal

By their own standards, Brighton has faced challenges leading up to this match, managing to avoid a fifth straight away loss with a 0-0 draw against Brentford in their midweek game. They are now set to host Arsenal, a contender for the Premier League title, but they are troubled by a recent record of just one victory in their last five matches (along with two draws and two losses).

Their European qualification is slipping away, but their incredible twelve-game unbeaten form at home (six wins, six draws) suggests they will do more than just make up the numbers. They, however, won just once in nine games when they began as underdogs, which raises a lot of scepticism about whether they can marshal a result against an on-form Arsenal side.

The 17:30 time slot has historically been troublesome for Brighton, as they have won just three in the previous eighteen games on Saturday at the time of this encounter (seven draws, eight defeats).

Brighton's João Pedro (hamstring) returns to matchday squad vs. Brentford on Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/GIJl3dNQci

— Underdog Soccer (@Underdog_Soccer) April 2, 2024

Joao Pedro performed well back from injury and should fill the gap left by Mitoma, who has been sidelined with injury. Three of his previous four scoring appearances saw him net at least twice.

Home team top scorer: – Joao Pedro, anytime goal scorer 33/10 & first goal scorer 10/1.

Arsenal is establishing itself as a serious contender for the title race, and they followed up on a well-orchestrated goalless draw against Manchester City with a comfortable 2-0 win against Luton Town.

The Gunners have a great squad to accommodate rotation as they did in midweek with eight games left. Mikel Arteta has built the best defence in the league, accumulated four away clean sheets, and should be confident heading to the Amex Stadium.

The London team secured three consecutive away victories, scoring five goals or more, before their goalless draw at the Etihad. It’s a good time at the Emirates, with them being the most improved team in the Premier League. They aim for two successive wins and a spot in the Champions League quarter-finals, achievements far exceeding their initial expectations for the season.

That Kai Havertz x Martin Odegaard link-up play! 🤝pic.twitter.com/US3aKlFmhb

— CentreGoals. (@centregoals) April 4, 2024

Martin Odergaard scored his fourth consecutive match-deciding strike against Luton, with the captain leading from the front.

Away team top scorer: – Bukayo Saka, anytime goal scorer 15/8 & first goal scorer 13/2.

Selected bets: – Brighton 9/2, Draw 7/2, Arsenal 13/20. Over 2.5 4/7, Under 2.5 13/8. BTTS: No 29/20, Yes 16/25.

Luke’s prediction: – Brighton 2 Arsenal 1.

Premier League Betting – Manchester United vs Liverpool

Manchester United bottled a 3-2 lead in the ninth minute of additional time going ahead to lose 4-3 against Chelsea on Thursday night, in an exciting and classic football match where both sides showed their attacking prowess.

Next, the Red Devils will welcome their generational rivals, Liverpool, and will be motivated to end their title charge by stealing points from them.

Erik ten Hag led his side to a 4-3 victory against Liverpool in the FA Cup and will hope his side can repeat this excellence and reduce the pressure on his neck. They have failed to win the previous two games (one draw, one defeat).

With eleven points separating them and fourth-placed Aston Villa, the pressure to qualify for the Champions League will be more significant with each passing game. However, it seems that ship has sailed, and realistically, the Europa League or Europa Conference League qualification seems much more likely.

United has nine players either out or doubtful for the game and faces a crisis at centre-back with Raphael Varane and Jonny Evans picking up injuries against Chelsea. With Victor Lindelöf and Lisandro Martínez already out, Erik ten Hag will likely play Willy Kambwala at the heart of the defence.

Despite the defeat, Alejandro Garnacho's performance stood out as a positive worth mentioning.

⚽️⚽️ 2 goals at Stamford Bridge

Reminder: He's only 19 years old ! #MUFC 🔴🔴🔴 pic.twitter.com/nMm6yRHYdR

— 𝓡𝓸𝔂𝓸 (@UTDRoyo) April 5, 2024

Alejandro Garnacho scored twice in midweek to take his tally to ten goal involvements (seven goals, three assists).

Home team top scorer: – Rasmus Hojlund, anytime goal scorer 49/20 & first goal scorer 8/1.

Liverpool is flying, sitting at the top of the Premier League table, leading the trio pack of Arsenal and Manchester City for the title. The Reds are entirely motivated to deliver the title for their departing manager, Jürgen Klopp.

They have been unbeaten in seven straight games (six wins, one draw) since they lost to Arsenal, showing an incredible run of form. The margin for error is minimal, especially with Arsenal having a superior goal difference. They could find it hard to break even if they drop points, making every game crucial.

They lost 2-1 last season here and are winless in their two previous meetings this season, which makes this a match to savour.

Alisson, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota will miss this match, but Klopp is likely to be able to call on Wataru Endo, who missed the midweek win over Sheffield United.

Mohammed Salah is on twenty-five goal involvements (sixteen goals, nine assists) and has consistently delivered more than this tally since he joined the Merseyside club in the 2017-18 season.

Away team top scorer: – Mohammed Salah, anytime goal scorer 21/10 & first goal scorer 4/1.

Selected bets: – Manchester United 7/2, Draw 17/5, Liverpool 8/11. Over 2.5 4/11, Under 2.5 9/4. BTTS: No 2/1, Yes 4/9.

Luke’s prediction: – Manchester United 2 Liverpool 3.

Liverpool should be motivated against Manchester United with the title chase given more urgency by the impending departure of the manager. Klopp understands that every point is crucial with Arsenal and Manchester City chasing.

Arsenal and Manchester City should have enough artillery to edge out Brighton and Crystal Palace, banking on their rotation ahead of their European assignments.

The Hammers have a slight advantage against Wolves, but it could go either way in such an encounter. I think the Londoners have the edge to take all three points. Fulham vs. Newcastle is another evenly matched tie, but I feel injuries will impact the Magpie’s chances.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.comand WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.