Premier League Week 29/30: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 29 March 2024

After a week-long international break, the Premier League returns, and there are some vital games at both ends of the table. This weekend could be pivotal in the title race with Arsenal, the league leaders, travelling to Manchester to face the reigning champions, Manchester City. At the bottom, Burnley hopes to take advantage of Nottingham Forrest’s points deduction but faces a tough match in London against Chelsea. Join Luke as he previews four games and shares his betting tips.

It should be a cracking weekend of football that begins with an intriguing clash between Newcastle and West Ham. Newcastle could close the gap between the two teams to just a point, but the Hammers know that three points will enhance their chances of competing in Europe again next season.

Chelsea have improved in recent weeks and will look to continue this form with a win against Burnley. Manchester United can build on the success of reaching the FA Cup semi-finals with victory over struggling Brentford.

In Sunday’s headliner, two of the top three go toe-to-toe as Manchester City welcomes Arsenal to the Etihad. If we have a winner, the victor will be the favourite to claim the title with just nine games remaining.

Premier League Betting – Newcastle United v West Ham United

So far, Newcastle United has struggled to replicate their excellent performance from last season when the club finished fourth in the Premier League and qualified for the Champions League. The extra games, key injuries and suspensions have all played a part. A dreadful run of results in December & January (nine games, three wins, five defeats and one draw) saw them drop down the table. They currently sit in 10th place, four points behind West Ham, who occupy 7th place, the Europa Conference League spot.

Newcastle are on a two-game losing run, having been beaten 3-2 by Chelsea and being knocked out of the FA Cup by Manchester City. They have an injury crisis, with eight players either sidelined or doubtful.

🚨 Eddie Howe: “Sandro Tonali has really suffered enough”.

“That illness didn't stop when he moved to England… and people should look at it that way, not let's throw the book at him and punish him even further because I don't think that gets to the root of the problem”. pic.twitter.com/Um6dgt1GWH

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) March 29, 2024

Sandro Tonali, currently banned for gambling offences, has been charged by the Premier League for further instances of betting and could see his ban extended.

Newcastle plays a 4-3-3 formation, meaning they score plenty but also concede often, meaning they are usually a sound bet in the BTTS (Both Teams To Score) market.

Home team top scorer: Alexander Isak- Anytime goal scorer 6/5 & first goal scorer 4/1.

West Ham go into this match as the team in form, winning three, drawing two and losing one in their last six. It’s worth noting that the loss was against Freiburg in the Europa League; the Hammers won the home leg 5-0, winning the tie 5-1. West Ham had a bad spell in February, losing three games in a row (3-0 Manchester United, 0-6 Arsenal and 2-0 Nottingham Forest). Recent form is much better with wins against Brentford (4-2) and Everton (1-3) and draws against Burnley (2-2) and Aston Villa (1-1). West Ham have won just one of their past nine Premier League meetings with Newcastle, a 4-2 away win in August 2021.

West Ham mainly plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation, which will provide support at the back. However, unlike Newcastle, David Moyes does tinker as they have also played in a 4-4-1-1, 4-4-2, 4-3-2-1, 4-3-3 and 4-1-4-1. Edson Alvarez has been a key player in midfield but is suspended for three games. The manager will likely choose between James Ward-Prowse or Kalvin Phillips to replace him.

Away team top scorer: Jarrod Bowen – Anytime goal scorer 5/2 & first goal scorer 8/1.

Selected bets: Newcastle, 5/6, Draw 16/5 at bet365, West Ham 14/5. Over 2.5 19/40. Under 2.5 8/5. BTTS: No 6/4, Yes 1/2.

Luke’s prediction – Newcastle United 2 West Ham United 1.

Premier League Betting – Chelsea v Burnley

Chelsea went into the international break in their best form of the season, with three wins in their last four games, including a 3-2 victory over Newcastle and a 4-2 win over Championship side Leicester in the FA Cup. The win in the cup means they have a date with Manchester City in the semi-finals. Chelsea have only lost once in the last eight games, a 0-1 defeat by Liverpool, who scored late in extra time (118′ Virgil van Dijk).

Ben Chilwell vs Brazil – Ben 10 pic.twitter.com/nPYmeY6QAo

— T (@tjprivv) March 26, 2024

Although Chelsea are in 11th place, the table is congested, and a win could take them level with Brighton in eighth. Mauricio Pochettino prefers a 4-2-3-1 formation but could be without full-back Ben Chilwell, who was injured in England’s 2-2 draw with Belgium.

“He wasn’t all right to train today so we will need to assess him ahead of tomorrow. I was a little bit surprised that he started two games for England, and now he’s had a knock, but we need him available to play for our club.” Pochettino told reporters.

Home team top scorer: Cole Palmer – Anytime goal scorer 6/5 & first goal scorer 4/1.

If Burnley is to avoid the drop to the Championship, they need to pick up points fast. They won their last game before the international break (2-1 v Brentford), which stopped a ten-game winless run (two draws, eight defeats). Burnley have their destiny in their own hands as they are still to play Everton, Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest, who are also competing for survival. However, scoring goals is Vincent Kompany’s main issue, as not a single Burnley player has scored more than four goals in the league.

Away team top scorer: Lyle Foster – Anytime goal scorer 9/2 & first goal scorer 14/1.

Selected bets: Chelsea, 2/7, Draw 5/1, Burnley 17/2. Over 2.5 19/40. Under 2.5 8/5. BTTS: No 19/20, Yes 4/5.

“Although backing Chelsea has been a risky strategy this season, I can’t see anything but a routine win here. Chelsea have the firepower to hurt Burnley, and I predict a 3-0 win for the home side, which is available at 17/2.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

A bet special worth considering at Bet365 is Connor Gallagher to score from outside the box. The 24-year-old has only scored two league goals but is not afraid to shoot from a distance.

Luke’s prediction – Chelsea 3 Burnley 0.

Premier League Betting – Brentford v Manchester United

After being the Premier League’s darlings, finishing 13th in their first season and 9th last season, Brentford have found this campaign much harder. The Bees’s points tally of 26 after 29 games sees them in 15th, just five points ahead of Nottingham Forest, who occupies the first relegation spot. Admittedly Brentford lost their best player, Ivan Toney, for a long time due to his gambling ban, but games are quickly running out, and the London side needs points.

Ivan toney this, osihmen that ….pic.twitter.com/gGqJHOA4nd

— monkeywarrior (@Hzah0210V2) March 26, 2024

Even with Toney’s return, recent results have been poor, with just two wins (3-2 Nottingham Forest and 0-2 Wolves) in their last ten games (seven defeats, one draw). The team had a credible draw with Chelsea (2-2) but have lost the following two (2-1 Arsenal and 2-1 Burnley).

Brentford have serious injury concerns, and Thomas Frank continues to be without at least seven players. Also missing will be Sergio Reguilon, who was red-carded in the loss to Burnley.

Home team top scorer: Bryan Mbeumo – Anytime goal scorer 7/4 & first goal scorer 11/2.

Manchester United went into the international break on a high after beating their fierce rivals Liverpool 4-3 in an FA Cup classic. Since the turn of the year, United have only lost two games (1-2 against Fulham and 3-1 v Manchester City) and drew 2-2 against Tottenham. This run included nine wins.

However, the loss against Fulham has renewed doubt in many supporters’ minds about the suitability of the manager, Erik ten Hag, who has already seen his team lose eleven times in the league. Worryingly for United fans, eight defeats have been on the road.

As a result, United are currently in 6th place, nine points behind Aston Villa in 4th. 5th might be enough for Champions League qualification next season; Tottenham currently occupy that spot and have a six-point advantage.

United is likely to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation but also suffer from injuries. Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martínez, Tyrell Malacia, Altay Bayindir and Anthony Martial are out, while Amad Diallo is suspended thanks to his sending-off for celebrating his late goal against Liverpool in the FA Cup. Jonny Evans, Casemiro, and Harry Maguire are also doubtful.

Away team top scorer: Rasmus Højlund – Anytime goal scorer 11/8 & first goal scorer 9/2.

Selected bets: Brentford, 2/1, Draw 14/5, Manchester United 6/5. Over 2.5 8/15. Under 2.5 7/5. BTTS: No 13/8, Yes 4/9.

Luke’s prediction – Brentford 1 Manchester United 2.

Premier League Betting – Manchester City v Arsenal

City go into the vital top-of-the-table clash with Arsenal in excellent form, last tasting defeat on the 6th December last year (1-0 v Aston Villa). In the 22 games since that loss, they have only dropped points in three games with draws against Crystal Palace (2-2), Chelsea (1-1) and their last league game, a 1-1 draw with Liverpool.

As things stand, you can fit a cigarette paper between the three teams at the top, with Arsenal and Liverpool at 64 points, one ahead of City. Although City have been in this type of situation many times in recent years, giving them invaluable experience, they have the lowest tally of points gained of the trio, with Arsenal taking 15 points, Liverpool 13 points and City 11 points.

🚨🔵 Kyle Walker and John Stones are both OUT of Manchester City squad for the game against Arsenal. pic.twitter.com/G4lytpNYUz

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) March 29, 2024

Inhuries might play a part as Kyle Walker, John Stones, Manuel Akanji and Matheus Nunes all picked up knocks while away with their respective countries. Ederson remains doubtful after the injury sustained in the last league game against Liverpool, while Kevin De Bruyne did not join up with the Belgium squad because of a groin problem.

Home team top scorer: Erling Haaland – Anytime goal scorer 11/10 & first goal scorer 10/3.

Arsenal’s league form this year has been sensational, with a 100% win rate, and they are the best in the division. This run includes good wins over Liverpool (3-1) and Newcastle United (4-1). However, they still have some tricky games to play before the end of the season, with Brighton, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Manchester United coming. They also face Everton on the last day of the season, and the Toffees could be in a situation where they need to win to guarantee survival.

Arsenal don’t have a great record against City, losing the last eight games at the Etihad. They hope Bukayo Saka recovers in time from a hamstring issue that saw him miss out on England’s games against Brazil and Belgium. The 22-year-old has 21 goal involvements in the league (13 goals, eight assists). Jurriën Timber is Arsenal’s only confirmed injured play and will miss the game.

Away team top scorer: Bukayo Saka – Anytime goal scorer 10/3 & first goal scorer 10/3.

Selected bets: Manchester City, 10/11, Draw 11/4, Arsenal 14/5. Over 2.5 3/4. Under 2.5 21/20. BTTS: No 4/6, Yes 4/6.

Luke’s prediction – Manchester City 3 Arsenal 2.

The weekend’s action promises to be full of spectacle. In the game between Newcastle and West Ham, it’s easy to make a case for both teams, but home advantage could prove to be the difference between the sides.

Chelsea should have too much quality, and I expect a routine win over Burnley. It’s a similar situation to that of Brentford and Manchester United. The Bees do have some good players, but I expect the Red Devils to build on the momentum after beating Liverpool.

In Sunday’s headliner, I’m expecting plenty of goals. Arsenal have the tightest defence and have scored the most goals, but I’m backing City’s experience to be enough to win a thriller.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.comand WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.