Max, Mercedes and the Hulk – Three Bets for Sunday’s F1
Max Verstappen can start his 2023 season where he left off in 2022. Last year the Dutchman won a record 15 races. He was dominant during the second half of the season – the two-time world champion won nine of the final 11 races on the calendar.
The 25-year-old remains at the wheel of a Red Bull car that has won 30 of the last 50 Formula 1 races. However, it is not only the history books and talent that make Verstappen a sound bet to win the season opener in Sakhir, Bahrain, this Sunday.
Three days of pre-season testing indicate Max Verstappen’s Red Bull has a significant advantage. ©Mark Thompson/Getty
Three days of pre-season testing at the Bahrain International Circuit has clearly displayed Red Bull has a significant speed advantage over its 2023 rivals. Furthermore, a trouble-free combined 413 test laps (204 for Verstappen, 209 for his teammate, Sergio Perez) indicates the latest Red Bull car is as reliable as a reasonably new Toyota Hilux.
No Silver Lining for the Black Mercedes
With a qualifying-pace advantage over their closest rivals estimated to be 0.28 seconds per lap – and only slightly less in race trim – the Red Bull team can provide Verstappen with his 36th Formula 1 victory on Sunday. The best Formula 1 betting sites offer 5/6 on the reigning world champion standing on the top podium step. It is an irresistible nap proposition.
At more generous odds of 5/2, we are plotting some misfortune for the Mercedes team. The ‘Silver Arrows’ has produced a black car this season as part of its efforts to save weight. The drastic measure has not produced immediate results.
Based on pre-season performance, Formula 1 experts have placed the German team in third position on the sport’s current pecking order. Ferrari is considered the biggest threat to Red Bull, and with a much-improved car, Aston Martin is believed by many to be as racy as Mercedes.
Mercedes struggled with reliability during testing and suffered an on-track breakdown during the second of three test days. Have the issues been ironed out? Bet365 quote 2/7 about both its cars being classified as race finishers. We much prefer the scenario whereby one or both fail to finish.
Will the Rookies Keep It Clean?
If a mechanical failure does not end the chances of either Lewis Hamilton or George Russell, an overzealous rookie driver might. There are three newcomers on the 2023 Formula 1 grid: Nyck de Vries, Oscar Piastri, and Logan Sargeant. Furthermore, 2022’s Formula 2 champion, Felipe Drugovich, may stand in for an injured Lance Stroll on Sunday.
Can this quartet be trusted to keep their noses clean on their debut? It is possible they could scupper the chances of any rival. With Mercedes set to be racing at the head of the mid-pack, its drivers could be in the proverbial firing line.
So how many drivers will finish the race? The leading motorsport betting sites offer just 9/4 that under 15.5 cars will be classified. It is obvious they are predicting plenty of accidents and incidents.
A Top Six for Incredible Consistent Hulk
Resultantly, a small investment on Nico Hulkenberg to sneak into the top-six at odds of 12/1 could produce some excitement. The German returns to the sport driving for Haas, and while he has never stood on a podium step, the 35-year-old rarely gets embroiled in race-ending mishaps.
Right back in the F1 groove 💪
Nico reflects on the past three days of #F1Testing ahead of his return to racing next weekend.#HaasF1 pic.twitter.com/dqbQ3lTDyU
— MoneyGram Haas F1 Team (@HaasF1Team) February 25, 2023
A veteran of 181 Formula 1 starts, Hulkenberg has finished in the points in 73 of the last 100 races he has contested. Given the pace the Haas cars showed during testing, Hulkenberg’s record could be further improved.
Sky Sports commentator David Croft believes the American Haas team has produced a car that is faster than the 2023 Alpine, McLaren, AlphaTauri, Alfa Romeo, and Williams. If he is right, Hulkenberg and his teammate, Kevin Magnussen, will be regular points winners and should pick up the occasional top-six finish – hopefully starting this weekend!
This Weekend’s Best Formula 1 Bets
- Nap: Max Verstappen to win the Bahrain Grand Prix 5/6
- Next Best: Both Mercedes NOT to be classified as finishers 5/2
- Long Shot: Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the top-six 12/1
