England v Italy Euro 2024 Qualifier – Match Preview & Betting Odds

by Luke Andrews, 13 October 2023

England, the Group C leaders, take on Italy on Tuesday night in their most crucial Euro 2024 qualification group match. In a repeat of the Euro 2020 final that saw Italy beat England on penalties to win, it will be a chance to revenge the painful defeat at Wembley. Luke Andrews previews the game and shares the latest odds for the England v Australia friendly on Friday night.

Group C leaders England will play second-placed Italy in the eight matches of the Euro 2024 Qualifiers, who are the two strong sides with a greater chance of qualifying.

A win for England guarantees them qualification as group leaders, while Italy, North Macedonia and Ukraine are stuck on seven points. Malta are the group’s whipping boys, with no points after five defeats.

The Azzurri will be hoping to revenge the 2 – 1 defeat at home against the Three Lions by disappointing them at Wembley Stadium.

Gareth Southgate has a chance to sharpen his side with a friendly on Friday against Australia. With seven points, Italy has a Euro qualifiers game in hand match against Malta that could close the gap against England to just three points if they win (which they will), setting up an exciting game against the group leaders that would feel like a final.

The last time Italy faced England at Wembley was the final of the Euro 2020, where after a 1 – 1 draw through extra time, the Azzurri won 3 – 2 in penalties.

Away from the European competition, Italy took four points from England in the UEFA Nations League. The defeat and goalless draw were enough to condemn England to relegation from League A to League B.

Euro 2024 Qualifier – England Team Overview

England was just one step away from a second international title, longing to end a fifty-six-year wait.

The Three Lions were good in the first half of the final of Euro 2020, playing with confidence in the final that was played on home turf at Wembley. Italy ruined their plans; despite scoring the first goal early in the game, they ended up losing on penalties.

The two teams meet in the Group C Euro qualifiers with the two clear favourites to qualify from the group.

The two met already when England scored two first-half goals to win 2 – 1 against Italy in the first leg of their European qualifiers. The Three Lions would be motivated for the second leg played in Wembley, which would be an excellent occasion for the fans who had their hearts broken two years ago.

England beat Italy 2-1 to take away 3 points to group H (euro qualifiers) Declan Rice kicked things off for England to take the Lead Then Harry Kane Broke the All time top Scorer list for England scoring a penalty
Italy Pulled one back 10 mins into the second half pic.twitter.com/xWsYlSQvnG

— ACXBOII🔺 (@acxboii) March 23, 2023

England are unbeaten in the Euro Qualification campaign, winning the first four games. They beat Italy 2 – 1, Ukraine 2 – 0, Malta 4 – 0, and thumped North Macedonia 7 – 0.

Southgate’s side had to come from a goal down against Ukraine to draw 1 – 1 in the only match in the entire qualifiers, the only time England conceded first.

An impressive performance for the English has been their defence, as they have conceded just two goals and have scored sixteen goals, which averages three goals per game.

Euro 2024 Qualifier – Italy Team Overview

Luciano Spalletti took over from Roberto Mancini and is still unbeaten in the first two games (one win, one draw). The performances against Ukraine and Northern Macedonia were, however, not convincing. Still, he has a chance to reinvent a working system and his best eleven to face England when they face bottom-placed Malta, who are without a point.

Italy finished third in the UEFA Nations League, beating Netherlands 3 – 2 in the third-place playoff.

They started the Euro qualifiers with a 2 – 1 defeat against England. The reigning European Champions recovered from the opening defeat and are unbeaten since then, winning two and drawing one.

They defeated Malta 2 – 0 and Ukraine 2 – 1 in the most recent match and settled for a disappointing 1 – 1 draw against North Macedonia in June. They are determined to qualify for the European Championship after missing out on the 2018 and 2022 World Cup editions.

FT: Italy 2-1 Ukraine.

1. England (13)
2. Italy* (7)
3. Ukraine (7)
4. North Macedonia (7)
5. Malta (0)

*game in hand pic.twitter.com/nVozR8ujD3

— 𝐀𝐅𝐂 𝐀𝐉𝐀𝐗 💎 (@TheEuropeanLad) September 12, 2023

The Azzurri have scored six goals and kept just one clean sheet, conceding in their other three games. Italy has not been at their best in this group, but they have shown great promise under Luciano Spalleti.

Top five Performing Players for England

Here are the five top performing players according to whoscored.com;

England Players to Watch: Marcus Rashford

Bukayo Saka, who has been named England’s Player of the Year twice, has performed exceptionally well in the European qualifiers, scoring three goals in four matches. Due to his injury, he’s unavailable, so attention will shift to his competitor, Rashford, who is expected to energise the team from the wing positions.

Rashford has scored once in two games and will likely receive more playing time to display his speed and goal-scoring ability. He will play a crucial role in the team’s counterattacks and in situations where quickness is needed in the forward positions. However, Rashford has been poor by his standards in the Premier League for Manchester United this season, scoring one goal in eight games.

England Players to Watch: Jude Bellingham

The rising global pop star in soccer, whose playing style is often compared to the legendary Zinedine Zidane, is currently the leading scorer in La Liga as a Real Madrid standout. He has been involved in three goals (scoring two and assisting one) in the Champions League.

Jude Bellingham 2023 – Golden Boy pic.twitter.com/iOpLs6vbQc

— ‏ِ (@killeures) October 13, 2023

He is also setting La Liga on fire with six goals in eight games and picking up the man-of-the-match award on four occasions. The 20-year-old is in blistering form. Although he hasn’t yet contributed any goals or assists in the European qualifiers, given his current form, he is the probable goal-scorer for the Three Lions.

England Players to Watch: Harry Kane

Since transferring from Spurs to Bayern Munich, the team captain has been making waves in Germany. Kane has contributed to twelve goals (scoring eight and assisting four) in just seven games, placing him second on the top scorer leaderboard. He has been involved in seven goals (five goals and two assists) in the European qualifiers. Known for his natural goal-scoring ability, Kane is an ideal candidate to bet on for scoring in every match, as he averages over one goal per game.

England Players to Watch: Harry Maguire

Despite being given the cold shoulder treatment at Manchester United, Maguire has the full support of their manager, Gareth Southgate. Repaying the faith for incredible performances in the Euro 2020 and the 2022 World Cup as the pivot for the English defence, he hasn’t disappointed in international duty.

Southgate has received a fair bit of criticism for sticking with Harry, but as the table above shows, he usually performs when Maguire gets a chance. However, his Euro 2024 chances may well depend on him leaving Old Trafford in January.

England Players to Watch: Phil Foden

Over the years, Phil Foden has emerged as one of Manchester City’s standout players, yet he hasn’t secured a consistent spot on the English national team. With Saka’s absence, Foden may finally seize the opportunity to deliver an exceptional performance, aiming to solidify his position as a critical player for England in the lead-up to Euro 2024. Foden scored in the 3-1 win over Scotland and has been in good form for City, scoring and picking up the man-of-the-match award in games against Forest and Leipzig.

Italy Team Top 5 Performing Players for England

Here is a detailed list of the top five players in the Italian team that can influence the game against England;

Italy Players to Watch: Davide Frattesi

The 24-year-old emerging talent for both Italy and Inter Milan has become indispensable and consistently tops the squad list for the Azzurri. He leads the team in scoring with two crucial goals against Ukraine, who have been their main competitor for second place. Additionally, he found the net in their 3-2 victory over the Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League playoffs. Known for his keen goal-scoring ability, the midfielder has been a vital secondary source of goals for Italy

” Davide Frattesi is a great player, and if he starts, I’ll be backing him in the anytime scorer market. My only concern is that he hasn’t been playing many minutes and was used sparingly in his last five games since his double against Ukraine.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Italy Players to Watch: Sandro Tonali

The ex-AC Milan midfielder transitioned to Newcastle in a high-profile transfer and quickly adapted to what is often considered the world’s most competitive league. He played a crucial role in Newcastle’s victory over PSG, orchestrating the midfield. Tonali could leverage his Premier League experience to strategise against English dominance. In the qualifiers, he has already earned one Man of the Match award and contributed two assists in just two games. However, Talksport reports that Tonali has been implicated in match betting allegations, so he may have to sit this one out.

Italy Players to Watch: Nicolo Barella

Despite having a slow start to the 2023/24 season. Barella was one of Inter Milan’s standout performances on their road to the Champions League final.

A reminder that Jude Bellingham said he enjoys watching Nicolò Barella Play Football.

Class recognises Class 🤝 pic.twitter.com/5CmfugRkVT

— Jose (@Jxse_23_) October 2, 2023

He has scored just two goal involvements (one goal, one assist) in eighteen competitions this season. Barella has the quality to hurt England when he gets a chance. He was the best player on the pitch in Inter’s 1-0 win against Benfica two weeks ago.

Italy Players to Watch: Moise Kean

Brought in to replace Ciro Immobile, who has scored seventeen goals for Italy, the most goals by any player in the current squad. The responsibility would be on his shoulders if called upon to try to inject pace and energy into the Italian attack. Premier League betting fans will know Kean well as he played for Everton. However, he struggled in England, making just six starts in the league with 23 appearances from the bench.

Italy Players to Watch: Gianluigi Donnarumma

In a game where Italy is expected to be defensively focused against a potent England offence, the PSG goalkeeper will be crucial in preventing the opposition from finding the net. It’s likely to be a busy day at the office for him. England supporters will be hoping for a repeat of his poor performance in the Champions League, where Newcastle United managed to score four goals against him in a stunning 4-1 upset over PSG. I can only imagine what odds football betting fans would have been offered for that scoreline!

England v Italy Head-to-Head Results

As I’ve mentioned, England and Italy faced each other in the finals of the Euro 2020 played in Wembley. The game ended in a 1 – 1 draw, with the home side failing to convert two penalties by Saka and Rashford to deny a chance to win the European title for the first time in their history.

This match is the most significant England vs Italy game since the Euros final.

In Group C, England faced off against Italy and emerged victorious in the first leg, defeating the current European Champions 2-1. The upcoming match at Wembley will have the atmosphere of a final, given the significant implications for qualification. The memory of their previous loss is likely to fuel the Three Lions’ quest for revenge.

Two of the other three encounters in the last five were in the UEFA Nations League. Italy beat England 1 – 0 at home, and a goalless draw in England saw the Three Lions Relegated from the Nations League. They met in a friendly back in 2018 that ended in a one-all draw.

Euro 2024 Qualifier – England v Italy Betting and Odds

Here are some of the best markets for the England vs Italy encounter available at BetTarget;

England are in fine form and favourites in the Euro Qualifier with odds of 7/10 and a draw set at 11/4. The travelling side will hope to repeat the heroics of the Euro 2020 final, with their odds set at 9/2.

The stakes of the match make this a narrow contest, with both sides likely to be reserved in their attacking exploits. This can be seen in the odds as many sports betting sites have the under 2.5 market as favourite at 13/20.

England v Italy – The Squads

England Euro 2024 entire squads;

Although the squad has players like Eddie Nketiah and Ollie Watkins, they are more likely to feature against Australia on Friday with Southgate resting players for the Italy game.

Italy’s entire Euro 2024 Qualifier Squad;

Sandro Tonali of Newcastle and Nicolo Zaniolo from Aston Villa are currently under scrutiny for suspected participation in unlawful gambling activities.

The governing body of Italian soccer has verified that both Tonali and Zaniolo, who were selected for Italy’s squad for the upcoming international fixtures, will be sent back to their respective clubs amid the ongoing investigations.

England v Australia – Match Preview & Betting Tips

Before England takes on Italy in the vital Euro 2024 qualifier, they will play in a friendly match against their distant cousins Australia at Wembley. In some ways it is an ideal fixture as it is a team that they will enjoy a lot of possession against and will be expected to beat. Australia plays with a defensive strategy and the team has a relatively low possession percentage but a decent pass success rate.

At football betting sites, England are by far the favourites, with 1/5 the best you will get for the Three Lions. With Australia defensively sound, some punters might be tempted with the draw at 5/1. The odds for Australia of 12/1 is an implied probability of 7.89% so backing the Socceroos is a risky strategy, but one that will pay handsomely if it comes off. It is likely that Gareth Southgate will not field his strongest side, but you’d still expect England to have too much for the Aussies.

When England v Australia betting, the Over/Under market is worth considering. Below, you can see the latest odds from Betiton.

Operators feel the game will have goals, with 2.5 goals being the sweet spot, indicating a 2-1 or 3-0 is likely. In Australia’s last game, they had a 2-2 draw with Mexico.

The England v Australia friendly will be broadcast on Channel 4 with kick-off at 19:45. The crucial England v Italy game is also on Channel 4 on Tuesday, October 17, and starts at 7.45pm.