What Is Next for the Guineas and Kentucky Derby Winners?

by , 8 May 2024

City Of Troy remains on course for the Derby despite a crushing defeat in the 2000 Guineas. 2023s Champion Two-Year-Old started as the 4/6 favourite for the opening classic of the season but trailed in ninth of the 11 runners beaten 16 lengths. His Derby odds have drifted from 6/4 out to 7/1.

Last season, Auguste Rodin – like City Of Troy trained by Aidan O’Brien – was a well-beaten favourite in the 2000 Guineas but bounced back to win the Epsom showpiece. Will history repeat itself? 2000 Guineas winner, Notable Speech, will not stand in his way in the blue riband contest. Described by jockey William Buick as “an out-and-out miler,” his next appointment comes at Royal Ascot.

William Buick riding Notable Speech to win the 2024 Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes.

Notable Speech and William Buick storm clear in the 2000 Guineas. The winner now heads to Royal Ascot while others go back to the drawing board. ©Getty

Beyond the colts’ classic, it was a big weekend of horse racing action. The fillies had their turn in the 1000 Guineas, and, in America, the 150th Kentucky Derby ended in a dramatic three-way photo. It was a controversial finish that bizarrely did not provoke an inquiry or objection but has caused a social media storm.

What Is Next for the Guineas 1-2-3?

All three of last weekend’s major races went to longshots. Notable Speech, described as a “star in the making” in our 2000 Guineas betting preview, was friendless in the betting ahead of the one-mile contest. However, the 16/1 shot quickened impressively from off the pace to win the race.

The St James Palace Stakes would appear to be his next and obvious target. Royal Ascot betting sites quote the unbeaten Charlie Appleby-trained horse on 2/1 for the mid-June assignment. Rosallion, runner-up in the Newmarket contest, is likely to reoppose. The more generous horse racing betting sites quote him on 7/2 to gain his revenge.

Haatem – like Rosallion, trained by Richard Hannon but acquired for just 27,000 guineas – took third in the Guineas. His next outing could be the Irish 2000 Guineas at the end of May. Unibet has tentatively placed the eleven-times-raced colt five places down its betting list on 8/1 for the Curragh contest.

Elmalka Best of a Tight Bunch in 1000 Guineas

The Coronation Stakes is the target for 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka. Silvester De Sousa gave The Roger Varian-trained filly a last-to-first ride to snatch the honours in the shadow of Newmarket’s post. Punters who placed their faith in the twice-raced horse were rewarded with a 28/1 starting price.

However, only a length separated the first five home – which means the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot could be a thrilling affair. For this contest BetVictor quotes the Guineas winner on 7/1 and the runner-up, Porta Fortuna, on 8/1. The French-trained Ramatuelle, who traded at odds-on with the betting exchanges in the closing stages of the 1000 Guineas, is 7/1 to reverse the form.

Ylang Ylang, fifth in the 1000 Guineas, is also 7/1 in Betvictor’s Coronation Stakes betting. The Gibraltar-based betting firm was also clearly impressed with 1000 Guineas fourth, Tamfana. While she is not entered at Royal Ascot, the company quote her on 8/1 in the French 1000 Guineas betting. Other horse racing betting sites have Tamfana priced on 14/1 for the May 19 race.

Paint Stripping Dan 33/1 for Triple Crown

Stateside, Mystik Dan wasted no ground when stripping the paint off the inside running rail and using the advantage to land the Kentucky Derby by a nose. Finishing second behind the 186/10 winner was Sierre Leone (48/10). The Japanese-trained UAE Derby winner, Forever Young (705/100), was a further nose away in third.

With the Kentucky Derby trip appearing the ceiling of Mystik Dan’s stamina, he could prove an even better horse in the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness. The contest, at the sharper Pimlico track, and raced over a lightly shorter distance, is scheduled for May 18.

Mystik Dan is quoted on 3/1 odds to land the Preakness, and bet365 offers 33/1 on the star completing the Triple Crown by claiming the Preakness and then the Belmont Stakes on June 8. It is Muth, who was last seen winning the Arkansas Derby, that the bookmakers like most in the Preakness. The Bob Baffert-trained runner is quoted on even-money.

Did Tyler Make a Kentucky Derby Gaffe?

Connections of Sierre Leone and Forever Young quickly announced their horses would not contest Preakness. However, in the aftermath of the Derby, they have received more than their share of social media coverage. And it was not their appearance in the Derby’s first three-horse photo finish since 1947 that has caused the stir.

Head-on video footage of the closing stages of the Kentucky Derby shows Sierre Leone and Forever Young were in a bumping match for much of the home stretch. Furthermore, in the dying strides, Sierre Leone’s jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, was pictured leaning over and making contact with his rival’s horse using his hand.

No enquiry was called at the track, and Ryusei Sakai, the Japanese rider aboard Forever Young, did not object to Gaffalione’s antics. In Sakai’s homeland, ‘objections’ are considered ungentlemanly! However, late on Monday, USA Today reported the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission’s stewards had ordered Gaffalione to attend a “film review” of the race on Thursday when disciplinary action could follow.[1]

Oaks and Derby Trials Will Paint the Epsom Picture

Domestically, imminent Derby and Oaks trials will clarify the clouded picture for the famous twelve furlong Epsom classics. Ahead of the Chester Vase and Cheshire Oaks, Lingfield’s Oaks and Derby Trials, and York’s Dante and Musidora Stakes, the markets for both races can be described as ‘confusing’.

Epsom Derby betting sites currently have Sandown’s bet365 Classic Trial winner, Arabian Crown, trading as the favourite on 5/1. 2000 Guineas flop, City Of Troy, is 7/1. The Group-1 winning Henry Longfellow, unbeaten at two but unseen at three, is third best on 8/1.  Ancient Wisdom, a horse with a similar profile, is 10/1.

1,000 Guineas fifth, Ylang Ylang is the clear Betfred Oaks favourite. The Aidan O’Brien-trained daughter of Frankel is 3/1. Tamfana, the 1,000 Guineas fourth, is 12/1. John & Thady Gosden’s Danielle, Dermot Weld’s Ezeliya and two other O’Brien horses, Opera Singer and Vanilla, follow in the Oaks betting. They are priced between 12/1 and 16/1.

  1. Sierra Leone jockey Tyler Gaffalione could face discipline for Kentucky Derby ride, (May 6, 2024), USA Today, Retrieved May 6, 2024.

Similar Posts

By visiting our website, you are declaring that you are 18+ and agree to our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and to accept our use of Cookies. This website contains advertisement.

Got it!