Who Has Shone and Who Could Be Gone in F1 2024 Edition?
Featuring 24 races, the 2024 Formula 1 season will be the longest in the sport’s history. So far, six races have been consigned to the history books. At the quarter-way mark, there have been three individual winners – despite many predicting Max Verstappen would win everything – and five drivers have stood on the podium steps.
Lando Norris won his first Formula 1 Grand Prix in Miami. With two further podium finishes during 2024, he could become a thorn in Max Verstappen’s side as the season progresses. ©Getty
Off the track, Lewis Hamilton’s transfer to Ferrari at the start of the 2025 season continues to excite. More recently, race car designer extraordinaire Adrian Newey has announced that 2024 will be his last at Red Bull. Journalists and pundits believe his destination is either Ferrari or Aston Martin, but they are split in their opinions.
Formula 1 betting sites are more decisive in their belief Max Verstappen will dominate the remainder of the season. He is priced 1/5 to add 13 or more Grand Prix wins to those he has claimed in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Japan and China.
In this story, we will look at the relative performances of teams and drivers up and down the grid. We will assess their prospects of improvement, look at forthcoming races where Verstappen and Red Bull could become unstruck, and seek out any value that remains in the Formula 1 betting markets.
Is Red Bull’s Dream Team Crumbling?
Verstappen cannot be blamed for brake issues that led to his retirement on lap 3 of the Australian Grand Prix.[1] An ill-timed Safety Car appearance in the Miami Grand Prix almost certainly cost him the race victory. However, these two defeats prove he is beatable, and Ferrari and McLaren will be circulating to exploit any mistakes he or his team makes.
With Newey leaving Red Bull and team boss Christian Horner still under a cloud following accusations of inappropriate behaviour towards a female colleague, many predict that Verstappen’s team will slowly crumble during the months ahead.
Perez is not driving as well as he could for the team. The Mexican has taken four podiums but has been far behind Verstappen in the process. He has not picked up the pieces and won when the Dutch world champion has had issues. At the outset of the season, this was his brief.
Red Hot Ferrari Are Best of Rest
Forced to withdraw from one race while his appendix was removed, Carlos Sainz has performed brilliantly to claim three podiums. His haul includes a race win when Verstappen was forced to retire in Australia. Not to be outdone, Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc also has three podiums to his credit, and he has not finished worse than fourth all season.
These results underline that the Italian team’s SF-24 car is fast and reliable.[2] Its drivers have expressed their excitement for planned upgrades expected to be slowly applied as the ‘European season’ gets into full swing. As a result, Ferrari could add a few more winner’s trophies to its cabinet in 2024.
McLaren Has Found the Winning Formula
A conveniently timed Safety Car helped put Lando Norris into the lead at the Miami Grand Prix. But, once in front, the Brit pulled away. A raft of updates ahead of the Florida race certainly saw his McLaren perform better than ever. Norris has now claimed a gold, silver and bronze medal in 2024.
I’ll remember this forever. Thank you everyone ❤️ pic.twitter.com/aN8BWiGoMX
— Lando Norris (@LandoNorris) May 8, 2024
Teammate Oscar Piastri, without all the additional bells and whistles applied to his car in Miami, has not enjoyed the best of luck. He is yet to collect any silverware and is sixth in the championship standings – with less than half the points of Norris.
At medium and high downforce circuits – such as Monaco, Hungary, Singapore, and Spain – the McLaren could continue to cause Max Verstappen problems. So, while the team tends to go a long time between drinks, at least one more race victory in 2024 is not difficult to predict.
Mercedes Is on the Wrong Track
George Russell and Lewis Hamilton have little to cheer about. Mercedes’s dominance is a thing of the past, and now the team cannot buy a podium finish. Fifth is the best either of its drivers has achieved in 2024, and an end to the misery does not appear in sight.
A race victory for McLaren – using an off-the-shelf Mercedes engine – underlines something is very wrong with the design of 2024’s Silver Arrow. It is difficult to see a race victory on the horizon for the team. Motorsport betting sites quote Mercedes on 6/1 to beat McLaren in the end-of-year World Constructors’ Championship standings.
Fernando Is Carrying the Green Team
Fernando Alonso has signed a new contract with Aston Martin.[3] It ruled out theories that the veteran would replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes. The Spaniard has been as good as ever this season – finishing in the points in all his 2024 starts. He has also beaten his teammate, Lance Stroll, five times.
But the well-resourced team is fifth in the standings, which is a fair reflection of the 2024s Aston Martin’s capabilities. Stroll needs to consider swapping his driver’s seat for one in the boardroom, and whereas 2023 started so brightly for the Silverstone-based squad, there is little to get excited about so far.
Ricciardo Is Not RB’s Best
Sitting sixth in the Constructors’ Championship is the RB Formula 1 team. 2024 was supposed to be the year its driver, Daniel Riccardo, underlined he was the rightful garage companion for Max Verstappen at Red Bull. However, a best finishing position of 12th indicates retirement beckons.
Conversely, Yuki Tsunoda has driven the wheels off his RB and has been rewarded with three top-10 finishes. Way clear of the three teams below it, RB should continue to score points week-on-week, although calamity would be needed for Tsunoda or Ricciardo to take a podium finish.
Here Today Haas Tomorrow!
Haas has claimed a ninth and three tenth-placed finishes in 2024. Nevertheless, that is enough to make it a surprise package and place it ahead of Alpine, Williams and Sauber. Those three teams have collected a single tenth-place finish (for a solitary point).
2023 yielded just 12 World Constructors’ Championship points for Haas.[4] It is on course to smash that haul with seven points bagged already. Once again, Nico Hulkenberg is proving superior to his teammate, Kevin Magnussen, in every department. However, he is headed to Sauber/Audi in 2025, and Magnussen could incur a race ban in 2024 for accumulating more than 12 points on his licence.
Alpine Has a Mountain to Climb
The French Alpine team has seemingly sacked every staff member apart from its cleaners, but they are probably on borrowed time! Frustration could lead its drivers to collide spectacularly sometime soon. It is something Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly are good at – and have plenty of experience of!
Gasly ⚔️ Ocon
The Alpine team mates could barely be separated on the opening lap 😮#F1 #MiamiGP pic.twitter.com/BQKCH8zhUf
— Formula 1 (@F1) May 8, 2024
A total of one point says a lot about the bad shape Alpine is in. We suspect the betting value could soon be on backing its drivers not to finish in races. The pair came close to taking one another out in the Miami Grand Prix.
Sauber Sinking Ahead of Audi Switch
Zhou Guanyu is outperforming Valtteri Bottas at Sauber, but the team has yet to score a point. Both drivers could become demoralised as one 2025 race seat at the team – that will be rebadged as Audi next year – has been allocated to Nico Hulkenberg. Carlos Sainz is reportedly in the frame for the other.
What Has Happened at Williams?
Following an upbeat 2023 when Alex Albon contributed 27 of the team’s 28 World Constructors’ Championship points, much was expected of the team in 2024. However, the wheels appear to have proverbially fallen off Williams’ cart.
American driver Logan Sargeant is an undoubted handicap. It must be questioned if the slow pilot – who often struggles to keep his car on the track even without rivals in his proximity – will keep his race seat much longer. Put simply, zero points from five races says a lot.
Of the bottom three teams, there is reason to believe Williams will ultimately finish ahead of Sauber and Alpine. However, apart from the ‘not to finish’ and ‘to finish last’ betting markets, there are currently no grounds to back a Williams driver.
What Are the Best F1 Bets Currently Available?
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc trails Sergio Perez by just five world championship points. He has been consistent, and with a car expected to continue improving during this busy season, we like the 7/4 odds offered on him finishing above Perez at the year’s end.
Carlos Sainz will be fighting tooth-and-nail throughout 2024 – he is currently without a race seat in 2025 – and while he is likely to get a drive somewhere, he knows another race win will raise the value of his stock. Quoted 7/2 to claim another race in 2024, the planets could line up to make the outcome a winning bet.
It may only take a few points to be the most successful Sauber driver at the year’s end. As the younger man, Guanyu may be hungrier than Valtteri Bottas, who appears to be going through the motions. It could make the difference and certainly makes the Chinese driver the better bet, at 9/4, in the bet365 head-to-head driver market.
- Verstappen’s Melbourne F1 Brake Failure, (April 5, 2024), Motorsport.com, Retrieved May 8, 2024.
- Tech Analysis: What’s New On Ferrari’s SF-24, (February 13, 2024), Formula1.com, Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- Fernando Alonso: Aston Martin driver signs new deal until end of 2026, (April 11, 2024), BBC Sport, Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- Haas VF-23 Complete Formula 1 Results, (May 8, 2024), Wikipedia, Retrieved May 9, 2024.
