Can Haas F1 Shine on Home Tarmac? You Can Bet on It!

by Roy Brindley, 19 October 2023

Remove Max Verstappen from the United States Grand Prix, and you have all the ingredients needed for an exciting race weekend. On a sequence of 12 wins from 13 races, the Dutchman is quoted 1/4 to win Sunday’s feature race. He is the same price to claim Saturday’s Sprint contest.

Max Verstappen may quickly have things under control at the front on Sunday. But, for a change, Haas driver Nico Hulkenberg may be fighting in the mid-pack. ©GettyImages

But, forgetting Verstappen and his Red Bull team, there are battles up and down the grid. Just 28 points separate the Mercedes and Ferrari teams in the World Constructors’ Championship standings. They are fighting for second place. Lewis Hamilton is also eying second in the World Drivers’ Championship. He currently trails Sergio Perez by 30 points.

With a hectic couple of weeks ahead – only seven days separate this race, the Mexican and then Brazilian Grand Prix – finding enhanced performance at this point of the season could be a game-changer.

McLaren Have Found the Key

The Mercedes cars will use a modified floor at the US Grand Prix staged at the Circuit of the Americas in Texas, but this is the last significant update the team will introduce in 2023. Ferrari is not expected to make any changes this weekend.

Ultimately, the McLaren team has unlocked the most speed from its car in recent times. In Qatar and Japan, its drivers scooped both the silver and bronze medals, and they currently look superior to the battling Ferraris and Mercedes.

McLaren has collected a total of 104 points from the last three races. It is a figure that surpasses all other teams. On its current trajectory, the British team could take third in the World Constructors’ Championship.

Fact File: United States Grand Prix

• The Circuit of the Americas is one of the bumpiest tracks of the season due to subsidence. The bumps also tend to move and change year-on-year.
• Iconic turns from European tracks inspired several corners at Circuit of the Americas.
• The track requires moderately high downforce and has a significant DRS effect. That allows teams to run reasonably large wings as a result.
• Circuit of the Americas is one of nine tracks on the calendar that is fully anticlockwise. The others are Jeddah, Miami, Imola, Baku, Singapore, Interlagos, Las Vegas, and Yas Marina.
• The first sector is incredibly challenging and technical. Considerable time can be gained and lost through the interconnected series of corners.
• It is one of the busiest circuits for gear changes, with 70 recorded across one lap. That is the third-highest total of the year, behind only Bahrain and Baku.
• Several corners feature wide entries to encourage different lines and promote overtaking. These include Turns 1, 11, and 15.
• The weather in Texas can be unpredictable, particularly the temperatures. They can vary from single digits on cool mornings to reaching into the 30s on the warmest days.
• This weekend will see the fifth F1 Sprint event of the season. The final sprint format of the year will take at the São Paulo Grand Prix in Brazil.

What Are the Best Bets This Weekend?

It is foolish to ignore McLaren’s upswing in fortunes. Five podium finishes from the last three races are not flash-in-the-pan results. And Singapore – where Lando Norris finished second – and Suzuka are as different as chalk and cheese. The pace is real.

The bookmakers are aware of the capabilities and potential of the McLaren team and its two young, talented drivers. Bet365 quotes just 2/5 about a ‘double top-6 finish’. However, the best Formula 1 betting sites are quoting even money on Oscar Piastri finishing on the podium for a third consecutive race. It must be value.

But it will be towards the back of the pack where the eyes of bestbettingsites.com’s editorial team will be trained. The rear of the field is where you will typically find Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hulkenberg. But there are grounds to believe more cars will finish behind the Haas drivers than in front of them on Sunday.

This scenario is rare. In 2023’s 17 races, Magnussen has breached the top 10 three times and Hulkenberg only once. However, Formula 1’s official website reports that this weekend, Haas will introduce “a whole new aerodynamic package that has been developed during the season. It follows a similar concept to the Red Bull route that many teams are now heading down”.

This major upgrade is unlikely to make the Haas cars go any slower. But marginal gains would be enough to see them leapfrog old foes, Williams and Alfa Romeo. Haas could be a real surprise on Sunday. With Hulkenberg and Magnussen available on 6/1 and 9/1, respectively, in the ‘points finish’ markets, they should be supported in the Sky televised US Grand Prix.

Sunday’s Top F1 Bets