Will Max and Red Bull Still Be F1 Favorites Following Testing?
The 2023 Formula 1 season may not get underway until March 5th, but now is the time to find the best betting value for the year ahead. Markets on the World Drivers’ Championship and World Constructors’ Championship will inevitably be re-shaped at the end of February following three days of pre-season testing at the Bahrain International Circuit.
Pundits – particularly Sky Sport’s Martin Brundle – believe the Mercedes team will have learned from its 2022 mistakes and will have a car capable of trading punches with Red Bull from the outset. The Formula 1 betting sites are not convinced. Max Verstappen is 4/5 to win his third World Drivers’ Championship crown while driving for the energy drinks company.
Drivers from the ‘big three’ teams on the podium in Austin. It was a familiar scene for much of the 2022 season. Can a driver representing any other outfit earn some silverware in 2023? ©GettyImages
And the World Constructors’ Championship betting currently sees Red Bull trading as the 11/10 favorites. Mercedes is 11/8, and the Ferrari team can be backed at 6/1. Over a 23-race season – 24 races were initially scheduled, but China canceled its race due to Covid-19 concerns – this betting market will slowly mature like a fine wine.
A Super Six Sprints in 2023
It is difficult to look beyond these ‘big three’ teams in the outright championships and individual races. In 2022 only once did a driver representing a team other than this trio claim a podium finish. That distinction went to Lando Norris – he snatched third in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix for McLaren in April.
There are a few potential spanners that could drop into the works. The 2023 Formula 1 season will feature six F1 Sprint races. These replace a standard one-hour qualifying session with a 100-kilometer race. They come with a handful of World Championship points and are used to decide the starting order for Sunday races.
Introduced in 2021, there were three such contests that year and three more in 2022. The forthcoming season will see Austin’s Circuit of the Americas hosts its first Sprint race, as will Azerbaijan, Belgium, and Qatar. Austria will feature a Sprint for a second successive season. Brazil will host its third.
Can Vasseur Improve What He Has Been Left to Work With?
But the biggest imponderable is Ferrari’s prospects following the departure of its team boss, Mattia Binotto, at the end of the 2022 season. Frederic Vasseur, former team principal of the Switzerland-based Alfa Romeo Racing, is now at the helm.
As journalist Giles Richards reported in The Guardian: “Binotto’s position after four seasons as principal is believed to have become untenable after he lost the confidence of the Ferrari president, John Elkann, following a season where the team was left looking helpless and, on occasion, amateurish by a dominant Red Bull and Max Verstappen.”
What type of car has Vasseur’s predecessor left the Frenchman to work with? Vitally, will the new Ferrari leader be able to do what previous bosses could not – improve the performance of the team’s car as the season progresses?
The Game of Seat Swapping
In addition to twice as many Sprint races than ever before and a new captain at the helm of the famous Ferrari brand, form students have to assess the usual round of departures, arrivals, and musical chairs.
27-year-old Nyck de Vries will become a full-time Formula 1 racer for Alpha Tauri in 2023. That race seat became vacant when Pierre Gasly transferred to the Alpine team. It needed filling after Fernando Alonso announced he was replacing the retiring Sebastian Vettel at Aston Martin.
Nico Hulkenberg – formerly at Williams, Force India, Sauber, Renault, Racing Point et al – returns to the sport to replace Mick Schumacher at Haas. 21-year-old Oscar Piastri will make his debut for McLaren, and another youngster, American Logan Sargeant, has replaced Nicholas Latifi at Williams.
Do Ocon’s Results Justify His Price?
How will these new arrivals and others compare with their established teammates? The best Formula 1 betting sites think they have the answers and have opened markets on season-long team/driver matchups.
The shortest propositions are Valterri Bottas (1/6) to beat his Alpha Romeo teammate Guanyu Zhou; Max Verstappen (1/9) to beat Sergio Perez; Lando Norris (1/6) to beat Oscar Piastri and Fernando Alonso to outscore Lance Stroll – also at 1/6.
But our tip – at William Hill sportsbook’s outstanding odds of 6/4 – is Pierre Gasly to top Estaban Ocon on the final points standings. Last year Ocon finished 11 points ahead of his then-teammate, Fernando Alonso.
That narrow advantage tells only part of the story. During the year Alonso suffered six retirements – three through a faulty water pump and two with engine failure – but Ocon only failed to see the checkered flag twice.
Meanwhile, Gasly comprehensively outpointed his Alpha Tauri teammate in 2022 and trebled Yuki Tsunoda’s points haul during the 2021 campaign. Now pitted against one another, it is plausible Gasly can more than match Ocon – who is established in the Alpine team but not necessarily as fast as the bookmakers’ odds compilers believe.
