It Is Time for a Next Generation Stayer to Win the Stayers Hurdle
The Stayers Hurdle is the headline race on day three of the Cheltenham Festival. The three-mile contest was first run in 1912, making it the oldest championship race at the meeting. Amusingly, the first Stayers Hurdle was a weight-for-age selling race worth £100 to the winner!
After World War II, the race was renamed the Spa Hurdle, which it kept until adopting the ‘Stayers Hurdle’ moniker in 1972. The race’s name was changed again in 2005 when Ladbrokes sponsored the contest for a decade and chose to call it the ‘World Hurdle’. In 2016, it reverted to its Stayers Hurdle title – the only name owners, trainers, pundits, and punters will ever refer to.
Despite his inexperience, Irish Point – seen here landing the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown – has the potential to win the Stayers Hurdle. ©GettyImages
Ireland has claimed this prize for the past three years. Overall, British-trained horses have a superior record. However, the Stayers Hurdle is no easy jigsaw to piece together. The 2023 winner, Sire Du Berlais, was a 33/1 shot. In 2020, Lisnagar Oscar scored at 50/1 odds. Can we pinpoint the destination of the prize in 2024? Here is our overview of Thursday’s big race.
Turning to the Past to Pinpoint a Stayers Winner
Historical results of this contest quickly narrow the field. Of the modern Stayers Hurdle renewals (1972 onwards), only two winners have been aged ten or older. Of the top dozen in the early betting, five 2024 Stayers Hurdle entries are veterans: Dashel Drasher (aged 11), Champ (12), Sire Du Berlais (12), Paisley Park (12) and Monkfish (10).
The list of previous title holders does show this is an exceptional race for back-to-back winners. Flooring Porter (2021, 2022), Big Bucks (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012), Inglis Drever (2005, 2007, 2008), Baracouda (2002, 2003), Galmoy (1987, 1988) and Crimson Embers (1982, 1986) all won the race more than once.
SENSATIONAL SIRE DU BERLAIS! 😮
Winner of a remarkable @PaddyPower Stayers’ Hurdle 👊#CheltenhamFestival pic.twitter.com/cAj0BqrOyO
— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) March 16, 2023
Despite age being against them, Stayers Hurdle history does give hope to the supporters of defending champion Sire Du Berlais and 2019s winner Paisley Park. Aged 12, Paisley Park would be the oldest winner in Festival history, but it is noteworthy that Crimson Embers regained his crown four years after he first captured it.
At Odds With Stayers Winner Price
Only two of the previous 10 Stayers Hurdle winners returned as favourites. Paisley Park started as the 11/8 favourite in 2019, and Thirstlecrack was even-money in 2016. In the same period, six winners started 10/1 or bigger. At 50/1, 2020 winner Lisnagar Oscar was the biggest-priced winner ever. He led home rivals priced on 20/1 and 33/1, resulting in a £741 forecast dividend and a £28,381 tricast.
A notable feature of the Stayers Hurdle is the field size. The fewest number of runners to meet the starter during the past four decades was nine, meaning the race is usually run at a generous pace. Nevertheless, if betting on the winning distance, be mindful that the stats show, on average, only once per decade does the winner score by more than three lengths.
Recently, the best age for Stayers Hurdle winners has been seven. Five of the past ten winners have been seven; three others were aged six. The race is open to four-year-olds and above, but rarely does a four or five-year-old take part, and none were entered in this year’s renewal.
Who Are the Stayers Hurdle Favourites?
5/2. Teahupoo – Recent Form: 1134-1
Starting 9/4, Teahupoo finished third in the 2023 Stayers Hurdle when beaten by less than a length. This Gordon Elliott-trained seven-year-old has raced only once this season, winning the Grade-1 two-miles four-furlong Hatton’s Grace Hurdle for a second successive year.
Teahupoo has yet to conclusively prove that three miles is his trip. He beat trees when he won over the distance for the only time, and last year’s defeat was disappointing, given the two horses ahead of him were rated 10 pounds inferior by the handicappers.
11/2. Crambo – Recent Form: 117-131
British-bred and British-trained, Crambo has only run outside novice company three times. He showed himself to be a rapid improver when gamely landing Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle by a short head in December. In second was former champion Paisley Park. 2023 Stayers Hurdle runner-up Dashel Drasher finished third, and the multiple Grade-1 winner Champ took fourth.
Crambo is seven and has had fewer runs than any other horse in the Stayers Hurdle field. Unraced since his outing in the Long Walk – proven to be the best Stayers Hurdle stepping-stone race – he is an exciting horse with potential and has enough positives to make him an each-way candidate.
11/2. Irish Point – Recent Form: 411-11
Like Teahupoo, Irish Point is trained in Ireland by Gordon Elliott. Aged six, this grey is a far more exciting horse. Seven of his eight career starts have been in Graded company, and he has won five times – most recently taking Leopardstown’s Grade-1 Christmas Hurdle.
Irish Point stretches away after the last to win the Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle @LeopardstownRC for @jackkennedy15 and @gelliott_racing
🏆 Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle 🏆 🥇 Irish Point 🥈 Asterion Forlonge 🥉 Ballyadam pic.twitter.com/ujzF8dJ9EC
— Horse Racing Ireland (@HRIRacing) December 28, 2023
That success was his first attempt beyond 20-furlongs and, in beating a proven yardstick – Asterion Forlonge – by 11 lengths, there was plenty to like about his easy success. Constitution Hill’s absence in the Champion Hurdle means Irish Point could be rerouted to that two-mile contest. But if he runs in the Stayers, he is our idea of a good bet at the 11/2 offered by the best Cheltenham Festival bookmakers.
9/1. Noble Yeats – Recent Form: 344-721
Defying 50/1 odds and indifferent form to win the 2022 Grand National, Noble Yeats finished fourth in last season’s Gold Cup and took fourth in the 2023 Grand National. A versatile horse and imaginative planning has now seen Noble Yeats revert to hurdles.
He beat established staying stars – Paisley Park, Dashel Drasher and Champ – to win a muddling Cleeve Hurdle over the Stayers Hurdle course and distance in late January. Receiving six pounds from many rivals that day and possibly lacking tactical speed at this level, Noble Yeats is reluctantly overlooked.
11/1. Sir Gerhard – Recent Form: 92P-F1
The form figures do not do this Willie Mullins-trained horse any justice, as he has suffered from misfortune in chases throughout 2023. A nine-year-old, he has won four of his five career starts over hurdles, including his latest victory in a 19-furlong heavy ground hurdle at Punchestown.
The form worth of that performance is difficult to assess in the context of the Stayers Hurdle. But Sir Gerhard’s back class is strong, and he cannot be dismissed on the weight of his success in the 2022 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle or 2021 Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival. Resultantly, it is easy to envisage a bold showing.
12/1. Flooring Porter – Recent Form: 43-9133
Bidding to replicate Inglis Drever in winning this contest three times in four years, Flooring Porter has been defeated in his last eight hurdle starts (since winning the 2022 Stayers Hurdle). He has been novice chasing this campaign, but everything suggests his best days are behind him and top UK bookmakers will happily take his supporters on.
12/1. Monkfish – Recent Form: 2/29-1
Winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, this 10-year-old completed a seven-timer when returning to Prestbury Park 12 months later to win the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. He has raced just three times since finishing second at the 2021 Punchestown Festival with almost two years off the track.
This Irish-trained horse may be ten, but he is lightly-raced – eight wins and four seconds from 13 career starts – and, like Sir Gerhard, we would not be scratching our heads if he were to run a blinder in the Stayers Hurdle.
Stayers Hurdle 2024 – Who Wins?
There would not be a dry eye in the house if Paisley Park (16/1) were to regain his crown. And there would not be a sober punter in Ireland if Flooring Porter scored again! But so many historical stats are against the pair, and surely 2024 is the year of the younger horse or simply a lightly raced sort.
Irish Point and Crambo are the horses with the most potential. The latter is short enough in the betting, given his only run at this level was against elderly rivals possessing a questionable attitude. The former has no holes in its form, and, aged six, his young legs could prove more than a match for rivals that resemble a box of broken biscuits.
If there is a big-priced winner – or a crumb-free shortbread to be found – it is likely to come from the Willie Mullins yard. In addition to Sir Gerhard and Monkfish, Janadil (top-priced 66/1 with the best Cheltenham Festival betting sites) and Asterion Forlonge (66/1) represent the Irish trainer. All four have won in Grade-1 company during their career and may not be finished yet.
