It Could Be Clayton’s Turn In Thursday’s Premier League
Want to understand how unpredictable Premier League darts can be? Simply take a look at Nathan Aspinall. The Brit is yet to win a nightly final. He has been a beaten finalist once and won one of the two matches he played on the other two nights. His leg difference is minus-two, yet Aspinall sits joint-top of the league standings alongside Michael Smith with seven points.
To date, there have been three Premier League nightly finals. They have been contested by six individual players. Only Jonny Clayton and Peter Wright are yet to progress to a decider. Wright has not won a single match, but he is only 5/4 to beat last week’s winner and table topper, Michael Smith, in Dublin this Thursday.
With no star shining bright, Nathan Aspinall finds himself at joint top of the Premier League standings despite failing to win a nightly final. ©Taylor Lanning/PDC
Clearly, fine margins separate all eight 2023 Premier League players. But online darts betting sites can rarely see beyond Michael van Gerwen. The Dutchman is still 6/4 to top the league standings and 2/1 to win the competition outright.
Despite the fickle nature of the Premier League, all four of this column’s selections were winners last week – and three of our four bet suggestions were winners seven days beforehand. Hopefully, by utilizing some of the more obscure markets among this Thursday’s matches, disciples will show a profit once again.
Peter Wright vs Michael Smith
This contest should be straightforward – the table topper beats the player sitting at the foot of the standings, right? A close inspection of the figures suggests this match will not be that simple. Wright has the marginally better three-dart average in league matches, and despite playing just three times, his 180 scoring is better.
Wright has won 11 of this pair’s last 15 meetings, and Smith has failed to win any one of their six previous face-offs on a Premier League stage. Nevertheless, Wright’s checkouts are currently failing him badly – just a 32.2 percent success rate in league matches. For that reason, the bet selection is Smith to claim the highest checkout of the match, offered at about 4/5.
Gerwyn Price vs Van den Bergh
Price won week two of the league with a steady but not spectacular performance. He averaged just 89.9 when beaten by Smith last week, and he was eliminated at the first flight in Barnsley’s Players Championship event on Sunday. It was world number 109, Jeffrey Sparidaans, that claimed the Welshman’s scalp.
Van den Bergh played the same competition at the weekend and fared better – eliminated in the fourth round – he averaged 99.3 when beating Ian White in his third match of the day. Like Wright over Smith, Van den Burgh has both superior three-dart averages and 180s scoring in the league. But he also has an impressive 50 percent checkout success rate. Price has delivered on only 25 of his 66 finishing +attempts.
The scales appear tipped in Van den Bergh’s favor. Despite what the figures suggest, the Belgian is a generous 6/4 in the win market and 5/6 to prevail in the handicap, where he receives 1.5 legs. The safe bet is the handicap, and it is a good bet.
Jonny Clayton vs Nathan Aspinall
Clayton has won just one of his Premier League matches. But, bizarrely, the Welshman has the best checkout record of all players in the league, and he took Smith to a deciding final leg in last week’s semi-final.
The green shoots of a Clayton recovery were also evident in Barnsley’s Players Championships. The world number seven – who had a near-fruitless 2022 following an exceptional 2021 – recorded some exceptional averages with deep runs in both of the weekend’s competitions.
99.8, 102.2, 112,0, 104.4, 98.6, 104.9, and 104.5 match averages clearly show ‘The Ferret’ has rediscovered his magic touch. Resultantly he is fancied to overcome a 1.5 leg handicap to give us a 6/5 winning bet.
Chris Dobey vs Michael van Gerwen
Van Gerwen (MVG) landed a 170-checkout last week, and he is the only player in the Premier League with a three-dart average over 100. He has won three league matches and lost three, but each defeat came with a 5-6 scoreline. In short, he is still the man to beat.
Here he is… MVG gets this leg going with a 180, and then WHAT A WAY TO FINISH IT! 🤑 pic.twitter.com/8KsOxdfdwj
— Sky Sports Darts (@SkySportsDarts) February 16, 2023
Chris Dobey pulled off a huge shock when winning the final on week one. It required two massive checkouts, and it is far from certain the Masters champion can unleash outrageous finishes for a second time. The darts betting sites agree, and Dobey is 5/2 to win this one.
There is no value in the win or handicap markets, but the 6/5 about MVG claiming the most match 180s appeals. The Dutch player is not a prolific 180 man – often dropping down to treble-19 with a pair of treble-20 already bagged – but Dobey rarely claims the most match 180s in any contest, and if MVG plays true to form, he will do best in this category.
How and Where to Watch the Action
Thursday’s Cazoo Premier League, night four, will be played at Dublin’s 3Arena. The action will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the UK and Ireland, through the PDC’s worldwide broadcast partners – including DAZN, Viaplay and VT – and on PDCTV. Proceedings get underway at 7.15 pm UK time, and matches are scheduled to start at half-hour intervals.
